On June 29 local time, the National Electoral Office of Peru announced the final voting results. The leader of the Peruvian Forces Party, Keiko Fujimori, who has run for president four times, won the election with a slight margin of 50.135% to 49.865% against Roberto Sanches of the Peruvians United Party. This means that she will become Peru’s first Japanese-American female president in history.
Why has this election become such a tight race? If Fujino Keiko, a right-wing politician, wins the election, how will it affect the existing Sino-Peru economic and trade relations? Regarding these questions, Observer Network interviewed Meng Kexin, the head of the Peruvian representative office of the magazine "Today's China" and the editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Gongyanbao".
This election is considered one of the most competitive presidential debates in Peru in recent decades. The reason for such a tight race lies in the fact that the positions of the two candidates represent completely different ideologies, leading to a high degree of polarization among voters.
Fujimoto Keigo represents "Order and Conservative," advocating for continuation of the family market, increased investment, and a strong-handed approach to combat crime. Meanwhile, Sánchez represents "Reform and Left Wing," stressing the adjustment of development models, strengthening state power, and advocating for wealth redistribution and poverty alleviation. This deeply ingrained structural conflict has enabled both sides to receive extremely high support rates in their respective fundamental grounds, making it difficult to establish a decisive advantage.
Meanwhile, the paper ballot system used in Peru has also increased the suspense regarding the results at the technical level. During the counting process, a large number of disputed ballots were marked as "under review" due to inconsistent data or party objections. The review process for these disputed ballots was lengthy, leading to a drawn-out process when the counting progress reached over 98%, with the difference in vote shares between the two candidates alternating between very small values. So far, Sanchez has publicly stated that he will not accept the election results and has accused there were violations in the counting of overseas ballots.
The results of this presidential election also reflect that the social and political division in Peru remains severe. Whether Sanchez and his political camp will continue to engage in legal proceedings, how they will adjust their opposition strategies, and how they will interact with the new government will continue to influence the development of Peruvian politics.
Fujimori Keiko, as the daughter of the late former president Alberto Fujimori, is one of the most controversial and influential figures in Peruvian politics. She had attempted to become president three times without success. This victory marks the official return of Fujimoriism to the highest power in Peru. However, after Fujimori Keiko takes office, she will face multiple challenges, including congressional fragmentation, social division, deteriorating security conditions, economic recovery, judicial reform, and the issue of the El Niño phenomenon. Whether it is possible to establish political consensus, restore market confidence, and stabilize the social situation will be a key test during her initial tenure in office.
In the political arena, the People's Power Party led by Yoshiko Fujimoto has a majority of seats in parliament, but does not have an absolute majority. This support rate may provide her party with more political coordination space, but it also requires her party to reach agreements with other political forces and to gain sufficient political support in parliament in order to maintain the progress of government agendas.
On the economic front, political uncertainty and the El Niño phenomenon will be the two main risks that will affect economic performance in the second half of 2026. Although Peru's macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, these two factors could dampen investment, consumption, and economic growth.
On one hand, after the presidential elections, whether the new government can successfully transfer power, restore political stability, and promote reforms will directly affect business investment confidence and the pace of major projects. If political differences persist, both private and public investment may be suppressed, putting economic growth under pressure.
On the other hand, the intensification of El Niño phenomena by the end of the year is expected to have a impact on agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, and logistics transportation. This could lead to higher food prices and inflation levels. Therefore, the newly appointed Fujimori government should take proactive measures to strengthen disaster prevention preparations and infrastructure development, in order to mitigate the effects of extreme weather conditions on economic activities.
Handicraft fishing boats moored in Paita, Paita Province, northern Peru. Since the onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon, handicraft fishermen have been worried about their livelihoods. Source: Nicolas Remene / Alamy
According to the policy plan announced by the People’s Power Party, Keiko Fujimori will prioritize restoring social order, strengthening public safety, and expanding private investment as the core of future government economic policies, in order to bring Peru back onto a path of stable growth.
Specifically in the areas of safety and rule of law, the policy proposal aims to restore confidence among domestic and foreign investors by improving public safety, strengthening the rule of law, and ensuring the stability of laws. This will attract more private capital to invest in key sectors such as mining, infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and manufacturing, thereby driving employment creation, enhancing productivity, and promoting sustainable economic development.
In terms of infrastructure construction, the new government plans to accelerate the development of transportation, ports, water conservancy, and public service projects. Major projects will be carried out through a public-private partnership model, thereby further improving logistics efficiency and national competitiveness. At the same time, efforts will continue to promote administrative reform, reduce bureaucratic procedures, and optimize the business environment.
In terms of macroeconomic policy orientation, the Peruvians’ Party believes that private investment is a crucial driver for promoting Peru's economic growth and fiscal revenue. In the future, the government will strengthen cooperation with the business community while maintaining macroeconomic stability, encourage investment, expand exports, and promote economic regularization, in order to provide support for the country's long-term development.
I have seen several Peruvian economic experts say that once Pedro Pinza takes office, Peru could become one of the countries with the most impressive economic growth in Latin America, thanks to a stable macroeconomic policy and increased private investment. In their view, the slowdown in Peru's economic growth in recent years is mainly due to political instability, frequent changes in government, and insufficient efficiency in public investment implementation, rather than a deterioration in economic fundamentals. If the new government can maintain policy continuity, accelerate the construction of major projects, and promote administrative reforms, its economic growth potential remains quite substantial.
Of course, as mentioned earlier, the new government will still face multiple challenges, including deteriorating public security, expansion of the informal economy, reforms in education and healthcare, and the El Niño phenomenon. Whether it can fulfill its growth expectations depends on the government's ability to govern, negotiations with Congress, and the implementation of reform measures.
The victory of Keiko Fujimori and her pro-market, investment-focused policies have multiple potential impacts on the economic and trade relations between China and Peru. Overall, opportunities and uncertainties coexist.
From a positive perspective, the government led by Kenji Fujisaki has clearly identified expanding private investment and promoting mining and infrastructure development as its core policy directions. This aligns well with the areas where Chinese enterprises have long been deeply involved in Peru. Peru's rich mineral resources are an important source of imports for China's strategic minerals such as copper, iron, and zinc. If the new government can restore political stability, improve security conditions, and boost investors' confidence, it is expected to attract more domestic and foreign investments into mining and infrastructure sectors, including those from Chinese capital. The new government plans to accelerate the construction of logistics projects such as ports and transportation facilities, which could provide new opportunities for Chinese enterprises to participate in major engineering contracting and public-private cooperation projects in Peru.
The picture shows the site of the Tromoq copper mine in Peru. Photo provided by Xinhua News Agency.
The picture shows the signboard of the Tromoc copper mine project in Peru. Source: Xinhua News Agency
However, there is also uncertainty. On one hand, the government led by Yoshiko Fujimori did not obtain an absolute majority in parliament, and policy implementation requires negotiation with other political forces, which may affect the approval and execution efficiency of major investment projects. On the other hand, Peru's social-political divisions remain severe. The opposition may use legal proceedings and other means to challenge the actions of the new government. If political differences continue, both private and public investment could be suppressed, thereby affecting the business environment for Chinese enterprises in Peru.
For China, closely monitoring the political developments in Peru, strengthening communication and coordination with various political forces of the new government, and conducting proper risk assessment and response in mining investment and infrastructure cooperation will be key to the stable development of future economic and trade relations between China and Peru. It can be said that the victory of Keiko Fujimoto has not only opened up a new policy window for bilateral economic and trade cooperation, but also tests the ability of both sides to manage long-term strategic cooperation in a complex political environment.
