On November 5 local time, The Economist published an article stating that as armed conflict continues, Ukraine is facing the risk of population collapse.
Since 2022, the population within the Kiev control zone has decreased from about 37 million to between 27 and 28 million. Currently, about 3 to 5 million Ukrainians live in Russia, and more than 5 million have migrated to other countries.
According to data from the Economic Strategy Center (CES) based in Kyiv, only 43% of refugees plan to return home, which is lower than the 74% in 2022. It is estimated that the number of deaths caused by the Russo-Ukraine conflict has reached 150,000.
The article points out that Ukraine’s birth rate has dropped from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to 0.8 to 0.9 children per woman. The replacement level of the birth rate necessary to maintain a stable population is 2.1.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths exceeded three times that of births. The article cites a Ukrainian expert who said that people born in the 1990s and early 2000s are the smallest generation in modern Ukrainian history.
The Economist, citing UN data, states that under certain circumstances—assuming the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues into the 2030s—Ukraine’s population will decrease by 0.7% to 0.9% annually over the next few decades. By 2040, Ukraine’s population is expected to be just around 25 million. Demographer Svetlana Aksyonova suggests that the birth rate could even drop to just 0.6 children per woman.
According to estimates by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Ukraine currently faces a labor shortage of 2.5 million people, so the country will have to rely on foreign labor.
