According to a report by Hong Kong English media The South China Morning Post on the 9th, the latest report released by Gavekal Technologies shows that as the AI boom and the situation in the Middle East drive the world to seek reliable energy sources again, China is expected to overtake the United States and become the global leader in nuclear energy.
According to reports, although the United States still has the world’s largest fleet of operating nuclear reactors, China now accounts for nearly half of the world’s nuclear reactors under construction. It is expected that China will reach a capacity comparable to that of the United States within five years.
Gavekal Technologies’ chief analyst for new energy wrote in a report, “By 2035, China will undoubtedly have the most dynamic and largest nuclear energy industry in the world.”
According to The South China Morning Post, the surge in demand for artificial intelligence has led to a significant increase in energy consumption. Combined with the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this has had a negative impact on the global energy market, drawing international attention back to energy security issues. Nuclear energy, as a zero-carbon and reliable source of energy, is increasingly seen as an important part of the solution.
Currently, China has joined the ‘Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration’. The core goal of this declaration is to triple the global installed nuclear capacity by 2050 compared to 2020. In addition, the No. 10 announcement issued last October by three departments, including the Ministry of Finance, clearly states that the policy of tax refunds for nuclear power will be implemented differently for new and existing facilities. The stepped refund mechanism will continue after 2030, and a market-based electricity pricing mechanism will be improved.
Yang Changli, the rotating chairman of the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, previously stated that by 2030, the installed capacity of nuclear power plants will reach about 110 million kilowatts. It is estimated that by 2040, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will reach 200 million kilowatts. On April 17, the "China Nuclear Energy Development Report 2026" revealed that there are currently 60 nuclear power units in operation in China, with 36 units under construction. Additionally, 16 nuclear power units have been approved for construction, bringing the total installed capacity to 125 million kilowatts, which is the highest in the world. Two units have already started construction this year, and seven more units are expected to be completed by then.
Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant Exterior IC Photo
In contrast to China's rapid expansion of nuclear power, the US nuclear industry has long been stuck in a state of development stagnation. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that since 1996, there have only been 3 new nuclear reactors added and put into commercial operation over the past twenty years in the United States.
In May last year, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to approve new reactor designs within 18 months. This move is aimed at increasing the country’s nuclear power capacity from the current approximately 100 gigawatts to 400 gigawatts by 2050, to meet the growing energy demands of data centers and large manufacturing facilities. Recently, the NRC decided to accelerate the approval process for small modular reactor designs by implementing reform measures.
However, analysts believe that despite the U.S. government’s ambitious efforts to revitalize nuclear power, “the signs of continued expansion remain unclear due to capital-intensive nature and regulatory barriers.”
The cost of nuclear power construction in the United States has also increased significantly, while China has managed to control construction costs through standardized design and local supply chains.
The analyst said that in terms of construction efficiency, it takes only 6 years to build a new nuclear power plant in China, while the latest Vogtle reactor in the United States requires over a decade. Although China’s nuclear power industry is expanding rapidly, its dependence on nuclear energy is relatively low. Data shows that by 2025, nuclear power will account for less than 5% of the country’s total electricity generation, far lower than the 18% figure in the United States.
It is worth mentioning that China's nuclear power technology innovation continues to make breakthroughs. According to reports, the research team in China is testing a vehicle-mounted nuclear reactor prototype that can move flexibly along with the electrical load. This mode of operation is completely different from that of traditional nuclear power plants, which are fixedly connected to the power grid.
This device was developed under the leadership of the Hefei Institute of Physical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. It is directly integrated onto the body of a conventional truck. Its maximum output power can reach 10 megawatts, and the amount of electricity it generates is sufficient to meet the power requirements of a medium-sized artificial intelligence data center throughout the entire operation period. The development team states that this reactor can operate continuously for decades without any need to replenish fuel.
If this vehicle-mounted nuclear reactor can successfully complete technical iterations and achieve large-scale deployment in the future, it will completely break the old model of centralized power generation by traditional power stations and long-distance power transmission to load centers. Instead, it will directly deploy nuclear power sources on the side with power demand, creating a new energy supply model where power generation follows the load.
