On July 4th, local time, the United States will mark the 250th anniversary of its independence.
Two hundred and fifty years ago, this nation born out of the Independence War began with thirteen colonies on the Atlantic coast. It eventually grew into a global superpower. On July 4th, 2026, it was supposed to be a celebration showcasing American national strength. However, in recent times, the focus has shifted away from that: political polarization, social fragmentation, high debt levels, and declining international influence...
Is America's global influence declining?
The British magazine "The Economist" published a lengthy article on the 1st, attempting to answer this question through quantitative analysis. The article systematically reviews America's development over the past 250 years and points out that, in terms of economy, military power, technology, and many other aspects, America is today "more wealthy, more powerful, and more wise" than at any point in history. However, its relative position has not been as strong as before, and multiple data points indicate that "America's dominant position is gradually weakening."
The former economic and business counselor of the Chinese consulates in San Francisco and New York, and a standing director of the China International Trade Society, He Weiwen, made a similar assessment. On the 3rd, he told Observer Network that there is indeed a decline in the United States, but this country still has a very strong leading advantage in fields such as artificial intelligence, technology, and finance. However, this relative advantage is gradually decreasing. "The decline of the United States is a very long historical process; it could be a century-long process."
"But 'East rising, West falling' is irreversible." He Weiwu analyzed that the biggest challenge facing international order currently is whether it will return to the 'jungle era.' He cited some of Trump's claims as "jungle laws," disregarding international law and disrespecting international rules. If international society returns to a state with no legal constraint, under a state of pure power struggle, "that would be a severe regression."
He Weiwen stated that the most important issue in current global governance is to firmly uphold the international order centered on the United Nations, adhere to international law, respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. Disputes between nations should not be resolved through force, but rather through peaceful negotiation. This is also China's consistent stance. China always supports multilateralism and advocates for global governance, global development, and global civilization. Therefore, this represents a new opportunity for China to enhance its international influence and reputation.
"The 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States is undoubtedly a momentous historical event." Weiwen He introduced, adding that the development of the US over 250 years could roughly be divided into two 125-year periods. From 1776, the year it was founded, to 1901, the country completed industrialization, and in the Second Industrial Revolution, it took a leading position globally, surpassing Britain and Germany to become the largest industrial nation in the world, "which can be said to have gone very well during the first half."
He Weiwen continued to say that in the following 125 years, the economic and military power of the United States continued to grow. Especially after World War II, a situation of 'one superpower dominating' emerged, and its international influence even surpassed that of the British Empire at that time. However, its status declined slowly after the war.
According to data cited by The Economist, in 1945, when most of the world was still in ruins, the relative strength of the American economy reached its peak. As the only major nation whose territory was hardly damaged by war, the United States, despite having a population that accounted for only about 6% of the world’s total population, generated approximately one-third of the global economic output.
The article states that thereafter, the U.S. economy rapidly thrived, driven by industrial strength, strong consumer demand, and government investments (such as in national laboratories and interstate highway construction). Coupled with immigration, a sound legal system, ample capital, and entrepreneurial spirit, the U.S. economy has continued to lead.
Between 1945 and 1999, the absolute growth of the U.S. economy surpassed that of any other country. American researchers invented many products that are part of modern life, including transistors, computer chips, personal computers, and the Internet. In the past 40 years, five of the top ten most valuable companies in the world were born in the United States.
So, why is everyone talking about “the United States being on a rapid decline”?
A recent poll released by the Associated Press and NORC Public Affairs Research Center last month showed that since 2017, Americans' pride in their country's history and democratic processes has significantly declined. The American polling company Gallup also found on June 29th that only 53% of American adults feel “very” or “extremely” proud to be Americans, the lowest rate since the survey began in 2001.
According to a latest poll by The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs, on the occasion of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, only 43% of Americans feel “proud” to be American. Website of NORC Center for Public Affairs
He Weiwen analyzed that in the United States today, the ethnic composition has become increasingly diversified. The proportion of traditional white people in the population is decreasing, and the number of immigrants is increasing. On one hand, immigrants provide a large amount of labor force for the United States; on the other hand, they also bring about more social conflicts. Therefore, social division in the United States is a long-term trend that will continue to exist.
In his view, Trump’s style of governance has also exacerbated this division. “Trump operates in a manner that mirrors the desire to be a ‘king’. He challenges the American democratic system and is very adept at creating and amplifying social conflicts. The greater the conflicts, the more prominent his influence becomes.”
However, He Weiwen reminded that the Trump phenomenon has both a certain social foundation and historical roots, as well as strong individual factors. It cannot be equated with the fundamental laws of American social development. In the future, it will still be necessary to continue observing how American politics and society will develop after the end of Trump’s era.
The Economist believes that the term 'dominance', which is Trump's favorite to use, can be used to explain the current pessimistic view that the United States is rapidly declining.
The article states that, compared to the past, the United States is stronger than ever, but its leading position in certain economic indicators has weakened. For example, the proportion of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves has been declining for decades, reaching 57% last year. More importantly, since 1945, the size of the world economy has increased by 19 times, and per capita income has increased by about 5 times. The rise of China since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 also greatly displeased Trump.
In two key indicators that Trump valued the most—manufacturing output and goods exports—the total volume of American production is still increasing, but its relative share has significantly decreased. In 1945, the United States produced about half of the world's manufactured goods; by 2024, this proportion had dropped to about 15%. In contrast, Chinese manufacturing output accounts for more than twice that of the United States worldwide. Trump has always criticized the relatively low exports of American goods, yet he seems to ignore the fact that American service exports are twice those of China.
The Economist reveals that China’s rise has caused a “challenge” to America’s dominance. This has caused concern among Americans. What they are worried about is not a decline in their own strength, but the rapid development of other countries, especially China.
The article points out that, calculated by purchasing power parity, China surpassed the United States as the world's largest economy ten years ago. China's manufacturing output accounts for more than twice that of the United States globally. Data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows that China's research and development investment in 2024 exceeded that of the United States. By 2025, the number of high-quality academic papers published by Chinese researchers accounted for more than one-third of the global total. The total number of these papers is equivalent to the combined output of researchers from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan.
Currently, according to the article, Trump and his supporters hope to re-establish American strength and create a new model of American power. However, he clearly shows interest in 19th-century-style territorial expansion and the resources that come with it. At the same time, he seems willing to allow the influence of the United States to decline in other traditional areas of strength.
In 2025, the budget for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) was significantly cut, and its foreign aid amount decreased to approximately $29 billion. The journal Nature estimates that in the first year of Trump's second term, more than 7,800 scientific research projects in the United States were frozen or terminated, and about 25,000 researchers and staff from federal scientific institutions resigned. Additionally, foreign immigrants, who have always been considered an important source of innovation in the U.S., are also decreasing. The number of net immigrants in the United States in 2025 and 2026 may be close to zero.
Accordingly, British media believes that what Trump brings to the United States could be a "revival," but it could also be a "slaughter."
Regardless of the situation, He Weicheng reminded everyone that "We should not underestimate American strength." He further stated that although America's international status has gradually weakened since the post-war period and no longer holds absolute advantage, it's transitioning into a relative advantage and this trend is likely to continue for an extended period.
He gave an example: the strongest period for the United States was after the end of World War II. At that time, U.S. industrial production accounted for about half of the world's total. Later, as Japan and Europe recovered their economies, America's relative advantage declined. However, starting from the late 1980s, America's power actually increased again. Around the year 2000, the U.S. GDP accounted for more than 30% of the global total, and this figure remains above 26%. Although its share has decreased, this is mainly because China has grown in importance. Compared with Europe and Japan, America has even further widened the gap.
He Weiwen added that, for example, in 1995, the combined GDP of Germany and Japan was approximately 106% of that of the United States. By 2010, it had dropped to 60% of the United States’ GDP. By 2025, it would be only about 30% of the United States’ GDP. “Therefore, the United States develops faster than Europe and Japan.” On the other hand, China’s economic development is much faster than that of the United States, resulting in a situation where both China and the United States are strong economies.
"The United States still holds a very strong advantage in fields like artificial intelligence, technology, and finance. We should not underestimate the United States' strength. Weiwen He said this. "So we should not view the decline of the U.S. as a short process; it will likely be a prolonged historical process, possibly a century-long one, but 'Eastern Rise Western Fall' is irreversible."
For the international community, what is more concerning than the power of the United States itself is how the United States will use its power. He Weiwen said that the biggest challenge facing the current international order is whether it will revert to the "jungle era".
He pointed out that after the end of World War II, the international community learned from the painful lessons of both world wars and established the United Nations system. An international order based on the United Nations Charter was formed, with core principles being equality of sovereignty, non-aggression, and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. Decisions were made through multilateral mechanisms. However, today, this international order is facing significant challenges.
He Weiwen said that, for example, some of Trump's proposals aim to return to the ‘jungle era’. He shows no respect for international law or rules. He wants to turn Canada into a state of the United States, annex Greenland, and unilaterally capture the leader of a sovereign country like Venezuela without any warning. He has also openly launched armed attacks against an sovereign country like Iran.
The Economist's front-page article published on July 2 also mentioned that overseas, the United States is also deviating from its values. Trump is leading a destructive revolution, destroying the institutions and alliances established by the post-war generation to protect the world. He and many Americans, regardless of their political views, despise the global system, wrongly accusing it of helping China and punishing American workers, while sending young American soldiers to distant foreign lands to fight and shed blood.
Reports criticize the United States under Trump's leadership as "acting recklessly, just like any other nation that chases wealth and power." The freedoms and democracy of foreigners are discarded. The trade system that was once mutually beneficial has now become a tool for grabbing profits. The United States and its allies once shared common values and stood together, but now they view their allies as resources that can be exploited.
Although these criticisms are made by British media from the perspective of Western traditional liberals, this indicates that, regardless of the purpose, the majority of the international community is wary of Trump’s practice of ‘disregarding’ international rules.
"If the world returned to a jungle-like era without international law, what would it look like? What kind of regression would that bring? This is the greatest threat to world peace and world order." He Weiwén emphasized. "What we need to do now is resolutely maintain an international order centered on the United Nations, uphold international law, respect national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and conflict between countries should not resort to force but be resolved through peaceful negotiations.”
He Weiwen believes that this has also brought new opportunities to China. China always supports multilateralism, does not engage in factional confrontation or group politics. “What we advocate is global governance, global development, and global civilization. We adhere to true multilateralism, regardless of whether it is Eastern or Western, or Southern or Northern.” In the future, China will strive to gain the initiative, exert greater international influence, unite as many countries and regions as possible, and jointly oppose the ‘law of the jungle’.
