On June 30th, the Japanese website Jiji Asia published an excerpt from an interview with Kurt Campbell, former Deputy Secretary of State for United States.
Campbell said during the interview that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, China, with its ample energy reserves and industrial resilience, could become the "winner" in this round of US-Iran trade conflicts. He revealed that there is a division within the Trump administration's policies towards China, with those who prioritize pragmatic economic cooperation gaining the upper hand. He also noted that Trump's diplomatic interactions with China are clearly more active than his interactions with the G7 allies.
Campbell works for The Asia Group, a Washington-based consulting firm. In a recent report, The Asia Group stated that if the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, China would gain a significant strategic advantage.
He said that this report indicates that, at least for now, China seems to be one of the winners in this conflict that has disrupted global trade.
He further explained that this is mainly because China has strong resilience in many industrial sectors. “They have redundant reserves and large inventories in terms of energy supply,” he said. Although these advantages may be gradually weakening, at least for now, China is clearly the country that has managed to overcome difficulties most successfully.
Campbell "Asia Daily" Illustrations
Campbell said that the Trump administration's excessive focus on the Middle East could put Asian allies who closely monitor the situation in a difficult position, and even lead to concerns. There are concerns that Trump's stance is leaning towards China, and that U.S. military forces are also more concentrated in the Middle East.
When asked about his evaluation of the recent US-Iran conflict, Campbell said that the situation did not develop as the US had expected.
President Trump believes that this conflict will end soon. He was persuaded by people like Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, but as we have seen, things did not develop as he expected. So I think this is worrying; it seems they don’t know how to resolve this conflict.
He said that Trump will never admit to having made mistakes or strategic errors. But if we look at American polls, it becomes clear that even his most loyal supporters are worried about some of the consequences of this war.
Campbell discussed US-China relations during an interview.
Trump administration factions are diverse, with vastly different stances on China policy. Campbell said that some people view China as a challenge to American survival, while others believe US-China trade can generate significant benefits for the public.
He admitted that, at least for now, those who advocate for deepening trade relations with China are gaining the upper hand. They are trying to find ways to expand business with China. The Trump administration has also lifted some technological restrictions.
Campbell also noted that Trump’s diplomatic interactions with the Chinese were more proactive than when he went to France to attend the G7 summit a few weeks ago. “This is quite evident.”
Campbell seemed unwilling to accept this situation, claiming that he did not wish to see any form of so-called “G2” emerging in the governance and strategic coordination of the Asian region. This situation did not serve the interests of the United States.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said last year when responding to Trump's remarks about the 'G2', that China and the US should interact in a positive manner on the regional and international stage. There are many challenges in today's world, and China and the US can jointly demonstrate the responsibility of great powers, working together to achieve more major, practical, and beneficial things for both countries and the world.
Campbell served as the Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs in the U.S. National Security Council and the Deputy Secretary of State during the Biden administration, and is considered an expert on Asian affairs for the U.S. government. After leaving office, he returned to his newly established Asia Group in February last year to serve as its chairman.
Since then, he has made several remarks related to China. For example, in November last year, he commented that from the perspective of power dynamics among major nations, China had taken some important steps and had gained certain advantages.
Campbell described China as being well-prepared. “They are very strategic and know how to deal with the United States and Trump.” He explained that China can immediately respond to every move by the United States, whether it’s tariffs, sanctions, or any other measures against Chinese companies. “And their responses are carefully crafted, causing precise damage to the United States while also sending out certain signals.”
Later, he stated at a seminar that “China is a powerful player,” and will remain so for the next few decades. The Trump administration misjudged China’s strength, and the US should open channels of communication with China.
