For decades, the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf have always regarded their alliance with the United States as the core foundation of regional security and strategic stability. However, at the beginning of this year, the Trump administration was stubborn and rashly launched military attacks against Iran in conjunction with Israel. Now, they hastily made compromises and signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, then quickly withdrew from the situation, leaving a group of Gulf allies who are deeply dependent on the US completely bewildered.
According to Hasan Alhasan, a senior researcher at the Institute of Strategic Studies, CNN reported on the 25th. From the perspective of Arab Gulf countries, this war in Iran represents a catastrophic turning point for regional security order. The US-Iran understanding memorandum is part of the US’s withdrawal from the region. “The US’s withdrawal from the Gulf and the transfer of financial and economic resources to Iran may further strengthen Tehran’s confidence.”
Gulf countries have once again faced the question: What does American protection really mean?
Last week, the United States and Iran remotely signed a memorandum of understanding, marking the beginning of a 60-day negotiation period. According to Reuters, in order to appease allies, U.S. Secretary of State Rubicoff will present the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding to the leaders of Gulf Arab states this week. However, these countries are worried that excessive concessions made by the United States to Iran could strengthen Iran's power, thereby reshaping the regional security landscape and oil supply.
According to the itinerary, Rubio will meet with relevant parties in the UAE on the 23rd. After that, he will travel to Kuwait and Bahrain to meet with officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) there.
The six members of GCC are all strategic allies of the United States. In military operations against Iran, they have provided varying levels of logistical support to the US, which has led to retaliation from Iran.
On June 25, 2026, local time, in Manama, Bahrain, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal at the Ritz Carlton Hotel during his visit to the Middle East. IC photo
According to reports, Rubio's visit was aimed at convincing Gulf countries that the United States' security commitments remain valid. On the 24th, Rubio stated in Kuwait that the United States would not harm the interests of its Gulf allies in negotiations with Iran. He told reporters, "We want to reiterate our position and begin communicating with them. We will engage in dialogue regarding every decision related to the negotiations. We will not do anything that could undermine the security of our allies."
Reports indicate that Gulf states had objections to the Iran Nuclear Agreement reached during President Obama’s administration in 2015. They even welcomed Trump’s cancellation of that agreement in 2018. The new US-Iran agreement is likely to cause unease among the Gulf states, as it does not address any remaining issues. Currently, Gulf states are in a phase of “losing confidence in the United States,” according to Al-Hasan. A senior Gulf state diplomat told CNN that this conflict has shown “that Iran has long had a well-planned strategy against the Gulf states.”
In addition, the memorandum of understanding between Italy and the United States does not cover missile issues, while many Gulf countries consider these issues to be more urgent than Iran's nuclear activities.
Rubio stated that regarding the Iranian missile issue, the United States will be 'fully in line with its Gulf partners'. However, Trump seemed to downplay this issue last week, saying that if both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have ballistic missiles while Iran does not, it is a bit unfair towards Iran.
CNN reported that this agreement also requires the participation of Gulf countries, as it includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran. Although Vice President Davis previously indicated that the funds would come from Gulf countries, there is little evidence that these countries have agreed to contribute. Saudi Arabia stated that it has “no detailed information” about the proposal, and although Qatar expressed interest, it has not officially signed any agreements yet.
Rubio stated on the 23rd that he would not seek funding for the $300 billion fund from allies during his visit, and said that related matters ‘are not yet on the agenda’.
IISS Senior Research Fellow Al-Hasan said, from the perspective of Arab Gulf countries, this Iranian War represents a catastrophic turning point in regional security order. The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding is part of American withdrawal from the region. "The US pulling back from the Gulf and simultaneously providing financial and economic resources to Iran may further bolster Tehran's confidence."
He told CNN that despite this, the Arab Gulf countries still support the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. “For them, a bad agreement is still better than war.”
Reports indicate that Gulf nations realize that there are currently few major security partners that can replace the United States. Even though the world believes that the United States’ security influence is weakening, economic cooperation between the United States and countries in the region remains stable. Countries such as the UAE have also pledged to ‘deepen further’ their relations with the United States.
Before the signing of the memorandum of understanding, a senior diplomat from a Gulf country revealed to CNN that it remains unclear how the relationship between the Gulf countries and the Trump administration will develop after the war. This includes whether there will be a more formal security mechanism between the two sides, which would obligate Washington to intervene when Gulf security is threatened.
The diplomat also stated that even so, some Gulf countries have already begun to diversify their military procurement channels, considering Turkey as another source of weapons supply.
This war has also forced leaders of Gulf countries to think more seriously about the path to long-term reconciliation with Iran. According to the diplomat, more and more officials believe that Washington’s role in the regional security system will be significantly reduced in the future. One possible framework is to sign a non-aggression treaty with Iran.
But how to persuade Iran to join such agreements is another challenge. As Gulf countries lose confidence in the U.S. commitment to security, they have little means to influence Tehran beyond trade, investment, and economic cooperation.
A commentary published in the weekly newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat this week suggests that Iran's situation may force it to take confrontational measures, and discusses whether diplomatic efforts could lead to a more moderate attitude from Iran.
Before the war broke out, Saudi renowned commentator Abdulrahman Al-Rahhideh argued in an article that the idea of a weak and isolated Iran being beneficial for the Gulf was incorrect. In his view, the goal was not to permanently weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran, but to change its behavior patterns and integrate it into a more stable regional order.
If Gulf countries are re-evaluating their relations with Iran, part of the reason is that they are also re-evaluating their relations with Washington.
Eurasia Group's Middle East and North Africa Regional Managing Director, Firas Maksad, said, "In the Gulf states, the idea that the United States is a reliable strategic ally has now been seriously questioned." He believes that this war marked the end of years of disappointment, which have continuously eroded the Gulf states' trust in the United States' commitment to security.
"The Gulf States need to reach a settlement with Iran, because they cannot fully trust the US. In the long term, they also must build up their own military power." Mak Sade said.
