The Brazilian elections are heading towards a decisive battle. On October 25th, Luiz Inacio Lula, who is striving for a fourth term as president, will face a final showdown with Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. In the first round of voting, Flavio led by about two percentage points.
Facing strong challenges from the far-right camp, will Brazil's improvements in employment and income provide enough support for Lula? Against the backdrop of the United States increasing pressure on Latin America, how will Brazil maintain its autonomy and seize development opportunities through cooperation with China and the Global South?
Regarding a series of issues, Observer Network recently interviewed Marcio Pochmann, President of the Brazilian National Geographical and Statistical Institute and economist.
In his view, this is ‘the most important election in the Americas’. If Lula is re-elected, it will create conditions for greater coordination among Latin American countries and a reduction of dependence on the United States. Speaking of Brazil’s own development, he emphasized that cooperation with China could help Brazil overcome the structural limitations caused by its exports being concentrated in primary products, and promote production and technological transformation.
Marcial Pochman
Brazilian citizens are concerned about issues related to employment, income, living costs, safety, and whether their lives can improve.
It can be seen that at this stage, Brazil has achieved some important accomplishments in the economic and social fields. The labor market has experienced a very strong recovery. By 2025, Brazil’s unemployment rate will drop to 5.6%, reaching the lowest level since this statistic was first recorded in 2012. At the same time, the number of employed people reached a record high, and real labor income also set new records.
These results indicate that by implementing policies such as raising the minimum wage, expanding employment opportunities, providing transfer payments, and investing in infrastructure, Brazil has not only effectively boosted economic vitality, but also significantly improved the daily lives of the general population.
This election will reflect the public’s evaluation of income and economic recovery over the past few years, as well as their judgment regarding whether this trend can continue and deepen in the coming years.
In highly polarized elections, it is important to see how different political proposals respond to the daily needs of the people. Ultimately, the final voting result will be a reflection of the people's views on their current living conditions, their expectations for the future, their political identity, and their level of trust in the system.
In any case, this election is not just a competition between political leaders, but it also has a direct impact on the future development of Brazil.
Yes. The current government has addressed a significant portion of the problems caused by social and economic stagnation. There has been positive progress in restoring employment, increasing incomes, and improving social security measures. However, these achievements have not eliminated Brazil’s long-standing structural contradictions, such as inequality, unstable employment, and family debt.
Society has changed, and the labor market has also changed. Today’s young people face new ways of employment, more fragmented working hours, and an increasing number of employment models where digital platforms act as intermediaries.
To truly understand today's workers, both unions and political parties need to adjust their organizational methods, better represent the interests of workers, and improve communication with them, especially progressive parties like the Labour Party.
Young people are concerned about career development and future prospects. Brazil is undergoing a digital transformation, and public policies and social organizations must truly understand the new demands that arise under this change.
On October 18, 2026, local time, in São Paulo, Brazil, Brazilian President Lula (right) and opposition candidate Flavio Bolsonaro participated in their first presidential debate. Visual China
Brazilian diplomacy serves the long-term interests of the country first, including seeking more development opportunities, maintaining national autonomy, and building more partnerships in an increasingly polarized world.
Brazil has the conditions to maintain constructive relations with different countries, and can also play a role in resolving issues through negotiations. To maintain diplomatic autonomy, it is crucial to protect one's own interests while participating in international cooperation.
In recent years, an important goal of Brazilian foreign policy has been to regain its international influence, promote Latin American integration, strengthen cooperation with the Global South, and revitalize multilateralism. The practices of Brazil in recent years show that it can maintain dialogue with China, the United States, Europe, Latin America, Africa, and other partners simultaneously, without turning diplomacy into a binary choice between these options.
This ability to interact with various parties is an important advantage of Brazil in today's international landscape. The real challenge is to turn this advantage into more opportunities for trade, investment, technical cooperation, and development, thereby helping countries to move away from backwardness and underdevelopment.
