"In the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) dominated by China and the United States, the technological sovereignty of medium-sized countries may be merely an illusion," wrote the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post on June 12. Although economies such as the European Union are seeking to strengthen their sovereignty in the field of AI, analysts believe that these countries lack sufficient autonomy in technology and supply chains, and are unable to shake the 'G2' pattern of competition between China and the United States in AI.
Recently, some "middle-sized powers" have successively introduced policies to promote the development of AI. In December last year, the Japanese government plans to invest 1 trillion yen over the next five years to support Japanese technology companies in developing AI technologies. In February this year, Indian Prime Minister Modi stated during the Indian Artificial Intelligence Impact Summit that he hopes India can catch up with China and the United States and become a "superpower in AI".
The Canadian government announced its AI strategy on June 4th local time, pledging to invest at least 2 billion Canadian dollars in the development of AI technology. The European Union launched a European Technology Sovereignty initiative last week, aiming to support European domestic tech companies, thereby making the EU a 'global leader' in the field of AI and protecting Europe's 'digital independence'.
May 31st, Tianjin City, Jin Nan District, World Smart Industry Expo 2026, Citizens watch Tenglong 384 Super Node Server IC Photo
However, Huang Ping, Assistant Dean of the School of Public Policy at The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) and former Vice President of the Qianhai International Affairs Research Institute, stated in a statement on the 10th that the AI field has formed a ‘G2’ pattern dominated by China and the United States. Apart from China and the US, there is no other true ‘major power’ capable of participating in the AI competition. China and the US have already widened the generation gap compared to other countries.
He believes that both developed countries such as EU member states, Canada, and Japan, as well as emerging economies like India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, lack sufficient autonomy in terms of technological capabilities, industrial chains, and supply chains. "For middle-income countries, technological sovereignty has evolved from a strategic goal into an unrealistic illusion."
In Huang Ping's view, although some countries continue to rely on American technology due to geopolitical reasons and pressure from the US government, the difficulties faced by middle-sized powers in terms of technological sovereignty may become an opportunity for China.
Huang Ping analyzed that China currently does not have sufficient comparative advantages or global influence to make medium-sized nations abandon the United States and turn to China. Therefore, the real goal should be to prevent medium-sized nations from choosing the United States, while not excluding Chinese solutions.
He pointed out that the key is to make Chinese enterprises, technologies, and solutions an indispensable part of these countries. “When Chinese-led AI solutions are deeply integrated with local industrial chains, creating a large number of jobs and economic outputs, any government that tries to exclude them will pay a very high political and economic price.”
Huang Ping believes that the remaining term of US President Trump could be a crucial window of opportunity. He warned that Trump's policies of relaxing regulations will maximize the pace of AI expansion. Chinese technology companies need to increase their influence in AI before US AI models become mature and the industrial chain is fully established.
