Since taking office last year, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has not wasted any time in flattery to the United States and Europe, using the Philippines as a stepping stone.
Meanwhile, Japan also frequently shows goodwill towards Russia, despite Russia having criticized the Japanese government's anti-Russian tendencies on many occasions.
Several experts on Japanese issues told the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post that there are multiple factors behind this move. In addition to their desire for energy from Siberia, Japan also aims to sow discord between China and Russia. Some experts predict that once the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, Japan's ambitions to create tensions will resurge.
According to a report by The South China Morning Post on June 14, when Naoto Kan travels to France next week to attend the G7 summit, it is expected that he will hear some dissatisfied voices. Unlike most European countries, which have a firm anti-Russian stance, Japan has recently been making diplomatic gestures towards Russia.
Japanese Foreign Minister Mochizuki dismissed the criticism, stating that it is important to maintain contact with Russia even during times of conflict.
According to reports from Japanese and Russian media previously, Japan is actively seeking to strengthen political and economic ties with Russia.
In May this year, senior officials from the Japanese Foreign Affairs Ministry and the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry visited Moscow for a two-day trip. They held talks with their Russian counterparts, and representatives from the Japan Economic Federation also attended the meetings.
In May, Japanese Liberal Party senator Suzuki Sozo visited Russia and held talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko in Moscow. According to Suzuki, during the meeting, Rudenko mentioned that if Japan was interested, a meeting between Japanese and Russian foreign ministers could be arranged during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila, Philippines, in July. Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, high-level political dialogue between Japan and Russia has been interrupted.
Additionally, against the backdrop of unstable conditions in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Japan purchased Russian oil for the first time in nearly a year.
In May, Suzuki Sohei visited Moscow. Kyodo News
James Brown, an international relations professor at Tufts University’s Tokyo campus who specializes in Russian affairs, mentioned that Mikhail Shvedkoi, the Special Representative for International Cultural Cooperation of the Russian President, was also in Tokyo in May.
On the surface, Sergei Kirienko came to Japan to attend the opening ceremony of the Russian cultural festival," Brown said. "Japan is expressing that culture should continue to be shared, and Moscow will certainly use this soft power to gain goodwill from the Japanese people. However, this inherently raises controversy." He pointed out that besides attending cultural events, Kirienko also met with Suzuki and Japanese government officials, discussing energy projects.
He continued, “All this indicates that, due to the situation in Iran, Japan is beginning to explore limited cooperation with Russia, mainly in the energy sector. The other G7 members feel uneasy, but this may not be so surprising.”
Brown also said that despite this, Japan still maintains many sanctions against Russia, and there is no sign of Koizumi seeking to return to the close relations with Russia that existed under the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He said that Abe was friendly towards Russia primarily to persuade Russia to make concessions on territorial issues. Japan still hopes this will happen, but the prospects seem bleak at present.
Koike Yayoi and Abe Shinzo – Japanese media profile picture
South Korean National University Professor Andrei Lankov, who is of Russian descent and teaches history and international relations, said: "For Europe, Russia poses a major security threat, but for Japan it's far from that."
"Europe hopes to maintain a unified front, attempting to isolate Russia diplomatically, despite the US government's stance making this more difficult," he said. "However, Japan and Russia have long-standing exchanges, so Russia may hope to use Japan as a weak link in its diplomacy."
Robert Dugaire, co-director of the Institute for Contemporary Asia at Temple University, believes that although Europe may be worried about Japan's gestures of goodwill, they will soon put this issue aside in order to maintain unity. 'Japan has retained sanctions. Although Japan's dialogue with Putin sent a bad signal and upset Europe, there are bigger issues that need to be addressed.'
Dujarric said that the Japanese government's different attitudes towards its two neighbors, and its friendly relations with Russia, are due to Japan's need for energy from Siberia.
Some Japanese business lobbying groups are hoping to return to Russia and conclude deals immediately, Dajarik indicated. "The Liberal Democratic Party in its current state has factions within it who share the stance on the Russian issue with Abe Shinzo, and may also be engaging in lobbying for her to take action," he stated. However, at present, I believe Russia is not a priority for her."
Brown believes that circumstances will change after the end of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, as “Japan has always regarded China as a threat, and is concerned about the alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea.”
Under Abe and other government leaders in Japan's attempt to create discord between China and Russia, however, this ultimately failed, according to Brown’s deduction. “However, after the end of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, I expect the idea of stirring up friction will return,”
In May, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova stated in response to questions regarding Russia-Japan relations that only when Japan's leadership "abandones its hostile stance" both in words and actions can the path to full restoration of diplomatic dialogue between Russia and Japan be opened. She criticized Japan's "re-militarization policies and clearly anti-Russian positions," which pose a threat to Russia's security in the Far East and the stability of the entire region.
