The "firewall" that has remained in German politics for many years faced its most dangerous test on September 6th.
On that day, state elections were held in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in eastern Germany. The latest polls before voting showed that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) had a support rate of about 42%, which was almost twice the 22% of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Five years ago, AfD only had a 20.8% support rate, while the CDU had as high as 37.1%. Now, the positions of both parties have almost completely reversed.
What truly deserves attention is not whether the AfD will win first place, but whether it will be able to take power directly.
In the past, German mainstream parties prevented the AfD from entering government, not based on laws, but rather on a political consensus—what we call a “firewall”: parties like the CDU, Social Democrats, and Greens refused to form coalition governments with the AfD.
This approach has a prerequisite: the AfD must have someone else to assist it.
If the AfD gets an absolute majority in the state parliament, the ‘firewall’ will suddenly become ineffective. It doesn’t need to persuade any political party to cooperate; it can elect its own governor and form its own cabinet. This would mean that Saxony-Anhalt would become the first state in Germany since the end of World War II to have a government controlled by a far-right party.
42% support rate, may not be as close to a half-majority parliament as imagined.
The German state parliaments implement a 5% threshold. If small parties like the BSW, Green Party, and FDP cannot enter the parliament, the large number of votes cast for these parties will not be converted into seats. German media estimate that in extreme cases, the AfD could obtain more than half of the seats with just 42% to 43% of the votes.
This explains why AfD set its election target as "45% + X".
More importantly, once in power, it does not obtain a symbolic position as governor, but a full set of real executive powers.
Under the federal system in Germany, the state governments have direct control over important matters such as police, education, and culture. The Saxony-Anhalt branch of the AfD has been identified by the local constitutional protection agency as a "confirmed right-wing extremist organization." However, if it wins elections, it could potentially take control of the state interior system and constitutional protection agencies that are responsible for monitoring extremist activities. Interior officials in several German states have publicly warned that this could even affect the intelligence sharing between state security agencies.
The AfD has also made no effort to hide its intention to turn this area into a policy testing ground. Its “Vision 2026” government program proposes strengthening deportations and “reimmigration”, reshaping school education, reducing funding for certain democratic and cultural programs, and changing the public broadcasting system.
So this election truly shook Germany's political landscape by potentially proving a point that had remained in theoretical discussion:
When a party that has been rejected by all major political parties and is close to half of the electorate, "firewall" what can it possibly defend against?
Even if the AfD does not achieve a majority in the future, the problem will not disappear. In order to keep the AfD out of the government, the CDU may have to seek a complex majority that spans the center-left and even left-wing parties. The higher the support rate of the AfD, the wider the political spectrum that the “anti-AfD coalition” needs to cover.
This is precisely what Saxony-Anhalt is most worth warning against for Germany.
In the past, the logic behind “firewalls” was that “other political parties should unite together to prevent the AfD from gaining power”; now, the AfD is trying to bypass this logic in a way that is extremely difficult to refute.
Not looking for allies, but seeking enough voters.
