Recently, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned airlines, stating that Russian airspace “would indeed be closed”. According to a report by the US Wall Street Journal on September 3rd, the Ukrainian military said they plan to “block” the commercial airspace in western Russia by deploying a large number of drones near Russian airports, thereby disrupting the Russian economy.
Russian President Putin recently stated that the warnings from Ukraine are "equivalent to state terrorism." The Russian Federal Aviation Agency also issued a statement on the 3rd, stating that the documents issued by Ukraine regarding Russian airspace have no legal effect. Russian civil aviation flights are currently operating normally, and flight operations involving foreign airlines have not been affected.
Reports indicate that since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in February 2022, Russia has never closed its airspace and has not prohibited the passage of civilian flights. Although many Western countries have cut off direct flights to Russia, airlines from Asian countries continue to fly to Russia. For these airlines, the reduction in competition is enough to offset the risks posed by Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ukraine is attempting to increase pressure on Russia by targeting its economy, in order to force Russia to end its military operations. To this end, Ukraine has targeted Russia's civil aviation traffic, seeking to 'close off Russia's commercial airspace'.
August 16th, a Ukrainian drone attack occurred in Kolejino, Moscow Oblast, Russia. IC photo
Ukraine's Armed Forces Southern Command spokesman Sergei Braluck told The Wall Street Journal: "This is no longer just sporadic, isolated warnings, but a move towards continuous pressure aimed at paralyzing Russia's civil aviation traffic in Europe."
Ukrainian military officials revealed that their plan is to expand the so-called 'carpet operation', sending more drones to orbit near Russian airports, forcing air traffic control centers to suspend aircraft landings and thereby disrupting the Russian economy. A senior Ukrainian official stated that the Ukrainian army intends to 'force the closure' of more Russian airports in response to the escalating Russian air strikes against Ukraine.
Since the summer of 2023, Ukrainian drones have appeared increasingly frequently near Russian airports, resulting in multiple instances of temporary closures of Russian airports.
In recent months, Ukraine has increased the frequency of drone strikes. According to statistics from the aviation risk intelligence agency Osprey Flight Solutions, in August this year, approximately 16,000 Ukrainian drones entered Russian airspace that is open to civilian aircraft, posing a threat to commercial flights. On average, this caused 32 Russian airports to be closed temporarily each day.
Statistical data shows that the number of times Russian airports are closed is increasing every month. Screenshot from The Wall Street Journal report.
Aviation safety experts point out that the surge in the number of drones near civilian airports, along with Russian air defense forces' efforts to intercept these drones, pose safety risks to commercial flights. For example, in May this year, Ukraine attacked a air traffic control center in Rostov Oblast, Russia, resulting in long-term flight suspensions at 13 airports.
However, The Wall Street Journal also pointed out that it is still unknown whether Ukrainian drones have the ability to force Russia to "completely close its airspace".
Researcher Justin Brown of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies told the British newspaper The Guardian that he believes Ukraine could use surprise attacks to force 'Russian airports to be shut down regularly or semi-regularly'. He suggested that Ukraine could deploy small groups of drones temporarily to achieve this goal, but it would be difficult to force Russia to permanently shut down airports. This is because continuous attacks would become predictable, and air defense systems would be easier to intercept.
Regarding the threats from Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a media interview on September 1 that Zelenskyy's warnings were "equivalent to state terrorism." Putin said, "What I want to point out is that it is they who have asked us to resume dialogue and hold face-to-face talks. You cannot negotiate with terrorists."
Putin acknowledged that attacks from Ukraine within Russian territory caused actual damage, but he emphasized that Russia is making progress on the battlefield. “I have no doubt that the enemy will collapse.”
Speaking of the possibility of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Putin said that Russia is willing to engage in talks aimed at ending the conflict, rather than freezing it, and is also willing to dialogue with the envoy of U.S. President Trump. He said, "If anyone can make or can contribute something to this process, we all agree."
The Russian Federal Aviation Agency stated in a statement on the 3rd that the so-called 'unsecure' warnings issued by Ukraine over Russian airspace are completely illegal and aim to disrupt Russian civil aviation order. At present, Russian civil aviation services and ground infrastructure are operating normally, and the processes of receiving and releasing flights are proceeding as planned. Flight operations, including those by foreign airlines, have not been affected.
The Russian Federal Aviation Agency stated that in order to ensure the safety of Russia's airspace, the agency is working together with the governments of the Russian Federation and its regions to implement a series of additional measures. These measures include standards for safe use of airspace and upgrades to ground transportation facilities.
