How long can the Americans maintain their advantage in the field of commercial spaceflight? Some American media have begun to warn that China and Russia are already “closely tracking them.”
According to a report by The Washington Post on August 25th, recent advancements in the aerospace field by China and Russia are putting increasing competitive pressure on the United States. The editorial board of the newspaper is concerned that the technological advantages that the United States has held for a long time are being weakened, and this could have a so-called 'national security impact'.
What has put pressure on the US is the recent progress in two areas. This month, China's commercial space company Blue Arrow Aerospace successfully achieved the recovery of a rocket stage for the first time. Previously, only two companies in the world—SpaceX and Blue Origin—had made similar technological breakthroughs. The recovery of rockets means that the vehicles can be reused, which significantly reduces the cost of space launches.
Meanwhile, Russia is also accelerating the deployment of a low-orbit satellite internet system called “Rassvet”. Since the beginning of this year, Russia has launched two batches of related satellites, and the progress is faster than previously expected. The article states that this system can provide internet services to ground locations and may help the Russian military regain communication and target positioning capabilities on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Facing the competition from China and Russia, the United States is also increasing its efforts. Last week, Trump signed a memo requiring federal agencies to improve the capabilities of America's space infrastructure, with the goal of supporting more than 1,000 launches and re-entry activities per year by 2030. However, this goal still has a significant gap from reality: in the last fiscal year, the Federal Aviation Administration approved only 205 commercial space activities.
The article argues that a major bottleneck facing the United States is the aging of launch facilities. A recent assessment by NASA reveals that these facilities are facing issues such as declining maintenance budgets and limited capacity. These problems cannot be solved solely through administrative orders; additional investment from the government is needed. Additionally, the US side plans to further “liberalize” commercial space activities. In July this year, the FAA proposed reforms to licensing rules in order to reduce time-consuming and repetitive regulatory reviews.
Nevertheless, this editorial still encourages itself, claiming that America's advantages lie in market competition and a business environment where "big investments lead to big returns." Using the development of SpaceX as an example, it states that this is something that Beijing and Moscow "cannot replicate."
Similar concerns have not been uncommon in American public opinion recently. The Financial Times cited a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at the end of July, stating that China's commercial aerospace industry has seen "astonishing growth" in recent years. The number of related companies has increased from several dozen in 2014 to about 600. Projects such as satellite "super factories," new launch sites, and reusable rocket initiatives are being rapidly implemented. The report even made comparisons with China's new energy vehicle industry, expressing concerns that if China fills the gap in medium- and heavy-lift capabilities, its manufacturing advantages could quickly extend to the aerospace sector.
