Several months ago, when British Prime Minister Sturme visited Japan for the first time, he declared that British-Japanese relations were in a “firmest phase in decades”. He emphasized that the partnership between Britain and Japan was profound and increasingly important. However, five months later, this seemingly stable bilateral partnership began to crack due to issues related to arms cooperation projects.
The British newspaper The Telegraph reported on the 7th that there have been increasing differences between the UK and Japan regarding the Global Combat Air Plan (GCAP). The total cost of this project will amount to billions of pounds, with the UK expected to bear at least 12 billion pounds over the next decade. The UK's repeated delays in allocating funds have caused dissatisfaction among the Japanese side, with former allies being criticized as " unreliable allies".
In December 2022, the UK, Japan, and Italy reached a cooperation agreement to jointly develop a new generation of fighter jets under the GCAP framework, before 2035. The new fighter jet will replace the F-2 fighter in Japan, and the “Typhoon” fighter jets in Italy and the UK.
The Three Nations formed the industrial joint venture Edgewing to lead this project. Its headquarters is located in the UK, and it was formed by major defense companies from the Three Nations: BAE Systems of the UK, Leonardo di Italia of Italy, and Japan Aircraft Industry Promotion Corporation.
According to reports, the three countries originally planned to sign a contract to provide long-term funding for Edgewing by the end of last year. However, due to ongoing disputes in the UK over how to fill the £28 billion gap in its Defense Investment Program (DIP), this signing was repeatedly delayed.
To avoid a disruption in funding for the project, the partner signed a temporary contract lasting three months in April this year. However, this contract will expire at the end of this month.
In July 2024, the GCAP concept model was unveiled at the British Aerospace Exhibition and Convention Centre in Farnborough. Japan's Kyodo News reported on this event.
This has sparked a series of dissatisfaction among Japan behind the scenes. Japanese officials privately complained that Britain was becoming an ' unreliable ally'.
Japanese International Relations Professor and military expert Garren Maloy previously said, "Japanese defense and security officials are extremely frustrated and disappointed." Japan has been eager to advance the GCAP program, partly because its existing fighter aircraft capabilities are outdated and need to be replaced. The delay from the UK is "testing Tokyo's patience." "The Japanese side must be thinking about whether the UK remains a reliable partner for this and other future projects."
Independent defense analyst Francis Tusa said that Japan originally thought Italy would be the one to have problems, but unexpectedly, it turned out to be Britain that had issues.
"If we mess this up, the consequences will be unimaginable. This would deal a catastrophic blow to Britain's relationships with allies in Asia, and Japan would surely make it public knowledge for other nations to say 'Don't cooperate with Britain'."
According to reports, for several months, British officials have been ambiguous regarding project funding arrangements, deliberately tying the future of GCAP to the fate of DIP, and refusing to fully support the plan.
Earlier this month, the UK Treasury even proposed delaying the UK’s funding for the GCAP project until the 2030s.
In Tusa's view, this reveals a fundamental misunderstanding within the British government regarding the nature of the GCAP project. The government also fails to recognize the importance of this project for Japan. He believes that signing international treaties is a serious matter, affecting Britain's reputation. Moreover, even from a security perspective, delaying funding until the 1930s would be utterly ineffective.
According to reports, the UK, Japan, and Italy have stated publicly several times that they aim to put this new type of stealth aircraft into service by 2035. However, this timeline becomes extremely challenging before the UK delays the funding allocation.
In recent years, Japan has been continuously highlighting changes in security situations in surrounding regions, attempting to strengthen its military deterrence capabilities. The new generation of fighter jets, which are capable of long-range operations and possess excellent stealth capabilities, are central to Japan's efforts to expand its military strength and establish deterrence.
Precisely because of this, suggestions regarding the postponement of the plan greatly concern Japanese officials.
Japan Air Self-Defense Force's F-2 fighter jets
Insiders reveal that it is impossible to delay funding while still completing the project on schedule.
A person close to the project said, “Postponing the funding until the 2030s is simply not feasible. We should act now, or not at all.”
According to reports, U.S. President Trump is trying to persuade Japan to withdraw from the project and instead cooperate with the United States, which has put pressure on Britain. Tusso believes that Britain’s reputation among its key allies is at risk.
He said, “Of course, we can say that the UK has domestic problems, but this cannot be used as an excuse. Japan and Italy also have their own priorities. I worry that the lesson that the Treasury will learn from this situation will be ‘don’t sign international treaties, because treaties will restrict us, but that’s precisely what treaties are meant to do.’”
Reports say this is a core dilemma faced by the British government, and there is no simple solution at present.
The GCAP project requires an immediate investment of 6 billion pounds, and the British Ministry of Defence previously estimated that the total cost of the project over the next decade will exceed 12 billion pounds. To raise this amount of funds, the UK must first address the funding gap of 2.8 billion pounds, which likely means cutting resources in other areas.
According to the British newspaper The Sunday Times, in order to raise funds, the British government is considering cutting capital expenditure in areas such as net zero energy, transportation, military housing, and NHS hospitals.
Edgewing Spokesperson states that senior management of GCAP project has complete confidence in receiving additional funding approval.
International crisis organization analyst William Yang also holds a relatively optimistic view, believing that the three countries have the capacity to save the GCAP plan. He argues that this extension will not 'damage' relations between Japan and the UK. He explains that Japan has always relied on the United States for defense cooperation, but in recent years, Japan has begun to diversify its security partnerships, choosing European countries such as Britain, Germany, and Italy.
He termed delaying the project as "a setback" in Japan's broader efforts to strengthen its defensive capabilities and expressed that this could increase a sense of urgency for Japan to seek alternatives aircraft to fill "security gaps."
However, the report also stated that British Prime Minister Sturme was originally looking to strengthen Britain's alliances. If the GCAP project is delayed, the credibility of his future statements is likely to decline further.
Some analysts say that if the UK fails to fulfill its obligations, Japan may also question why its partner did not take action more quickly to bring in other interested countries to participate in this project.
According to reports, Canada, Australia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and several other countries have expressed interest in joining.
