According to Reuters report on August 22, US President Donald Trump's tariff policies and his tough stance towards Canada are unexpectedly weakening Quebec's desire for independence. The support for Quebec's independence has now dropped to about 30%, the lowest level in decades.
A person in charge of a steel fastener factory in Quebec said that after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian steel in June last year, the factory's orders decreased by about one-third within a week. The company froze hiring activities, shut down some production capacity, and laid off about 140 employees. Similar disruptions have raised concerns about the economic prospects for local residents.
Unlike in previous economic downturns when independence sentiments increased, Trump’s tariffs and statements about turning Canada into the 51st state have instead stimulated Canadian national identity in Quebec. Many believe that staying within the Canadian federation is more beneficial for protecting French culture and local interests under American pressure.
The Quebec Party is currently leading in provincial voter surveys. The party has promised that if it comes to power, it will promote a third independence referendum. However, its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has clearly stated that no referendum will be held as long as Trump remains in the White House.
A national referendum is inevitable, just not now. Leader of the Quebec Party speaks to Canadian Radio.
Polls show that Trump’s support in Quebec is only about 10%, making it one of the lowest regions in Canada. Analysts point out that Trump’s conservative policies and his criticism of measures to protect French in Quebec have caused local voters to feel resentful.
Although some independents still believe that Canada cannot truly safeguard Quebec's interests, most people think that discussing the timing of independence is not appropriate given the current external uncertainties.
Quebec is scheduled to hold provincial elections by October 5th, and the issue of independence has significantly cooled in the short term.
