According to a study released on August 20th by Reuters, more than 150 wallets on the online betting platform Polymarket International may have used internal military information for transactions, with a success rate of 97.2%. These transactions attracted betting enthusiasts who followed suit, and could lead to important signals being disseminated outwardly, thereby being exploited by foreign adversaries.
This analysis was conducted by the non-profit research organization ‘Anti-Corruption Data Collective’ (ACDC). The organization is composed of scholars and investigators with expertise in the illegal financial sector, and its mission is to promote anti-corruption reforms. As the study is released, regulatory agencies are stepping up scrutiny of this “fast-growing” industry.
Previously, on the eve of a military operation in the United States, an American soldier was accused of using classified information to bet on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's removal from power in January. Regulatory authorities stated that such behavior could jeopardize national security.
Polymarket was founded in 2020. People within the company said in interviews that the platform has strict controls and closely monitors suspicious activities. Dozens of traders' wallets have been reported to authorities, including those related to the Maduro case.
However, ACDC discovered 556 wallets that they referred to as “Orcas”. This indicates that the accounts had a “precision and purpose-driven hunting strategy”. These traders typically invested their funds in niche markets where insiders had access to information. The success rates of these investments were exceptionally high, and once they made their profits, they immediately withdrew their funds and disappeared without a trace.
In which, 152 wallet key investment was invested in military and defense markets, gaining a profit of $8 million USD, with an average winning rate of 97.2%.
ACDC stated that the characteristics of "beluga whales" could also be explained by pure luck. Similarly, not all potential insiders are "beluga whales." According to prosecutors, soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke earned $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power, but his reaction time was slow, so he does not belong to this group of 152 "beluga whales." Van Dyke has declared not guilty.
Nevertheless, the 152 wallets mentioned above are most likely used for trading military secrets. Although some of these wallets have been identified by other researchers and media before, ACDC states that it has also discovered dozens of wallets that have not been reported before.
A spokesperson from the Pentagon stated that they would not comment on this matter.
ACDC noted that leveraging government confidential information for profit is usually illegal, but it is even more concerning to find evidence suggesting military "Tiger Whales" trading appears to have attracted wealthy "Blue whales" and algorithmic trading robots' mirroring bets.
Although following the trend in trading is legal, ACDC has found indications that it amplifies the signals emitted by killer whales, making them spread more widely.
For example, a few hours before the US military carried out military actions against Iran in June 2025, after "otters" made bets, a robot and an "ocean whale" followed suit, betting $200,000 and $100,000 respectively. Research also found that similar “otter bets” seemed to trigger a wave of following betting activities before the US and Israel carried out air strikes on Tehran in February this year.
"Most people significantly underestimate the observable nature of unusual bets on Polymarket. This information is readily available online, and it's naive to believe foreign intelligence agencies aren't monitoring these markets," said David Szakonyi, co-founder of ACDC.
The organization believes that all traders should be required to prove their identity, and that payments related to suspicious transactions should be withheld during investigations. However, they also argue that in order to truly reduce the risks of insider trading, certain markets should be banned—markets where the ability to trade using non-public information is highly viable and profitable.
