The temporary memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran in mid-June expired on August 17th, and negotiations between the two parties remain stuck.
According to a report by the American Wall Street Journal on the 16th, intercepted communication records and other intelligence indicate that Iran's hard-line leadership is making strategic adjustments, aiming to make the United States and its regional allies pay a greater price.
According to reports, after signing a memorandum of understanding with Iran in June, Trump administration officials worked hard to secure support for the agreement. They hope that this agreement will lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the cessation of the conflict.
But Iranian and Arab officials revealed that Iran’s hard-line leaders have a completely different plan. In their view, the agreement may simply be a strategy by the United States and Israel to ease global economic pressures and gain time for future larger attacks.
Sources familiar with the situation indicate that Iran’s hard-line leaders are not relying on negotiations, but are using the past two months to prepare for larger conflicts.
These preparations include: further strengthening the Islamic Revolutionary Guard's control over the national army; appointing hard-line veterans who have experienced the Iran-Iraq war and internal repression operations to key positions; expanding domestic counter-espionage activities; and accelerating the production of missiles and drones.
Meanwhile, the Iranian leadership quickly gained control, using attacks on ships to tighten their grip on the Strait of Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea. Previously, Saudi Arabia had been using the Red Sea to circumvent Iran's blockade of the Persian Gulf.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Arab intelligence officials have obtained evidence, including communication records between Iran and military organizations in countries such as Yemen and Iraq. This evidence indicates that there is a strategic adjustment underway within Iran's hard-line leadership, aimed at expanding military operations and causing greater costs for the United States.
According to reports, Tehran’s primary goal is to inflict enough damage on its opponents, so as to ensure that the attacks suffered by Iran during last year’s 12-day war and the ongoing conflicts do not happen again.
The Wall Street Journal notes that Iran's preparations indicate a huge gap in understanding of the current situation between Washington and Tehran. This also highlights a severe lack of mutual trust between the two sides, which could lead to the inability of the two countries to reach a lasting agreement to end the conflict in the short term.
In Iran, the general view is that the true war has not yet been declared," said Mahmood Hasan Santarash, a defense analyst based in Teheran and close to the Iranian government. "The situation we've observed so far is increasingly being interpreted as the 'cut sausage' tactic, whereby by limiting and incrementally escalating conflicts, we weaken our adversary before launching a larger-scale confrontation."
Sources close to Iranian senior negotiators warned that peace talks may merely be a brief interlude before more conflicts erupt. Mehdi Mahmudi, strategic advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Ali Al-Khalifa, described the current deadlock as “calm before the storm” last week.
In a previously posted social media post, Mohamadi stated that factors driving the conflict include a "generational blood feud plan," aimed at avenging the supreme leader Khamenei who died in early air strikes during the war.
"Iranian nationals and Trump have many old scores yet to be settled," said Mohsen Mohammadi, who is a member of the Iranian negotiating team. "Iran has prepared for this major confrontation."
On June 17, the United States and Iran announced the official text of their memorandum of understanding. According to this document, the US and Iran pledged to conduct negotiations within 60 days in order to reach a final agreement. However, on July 7th and 8th, the US military launched military strikes against Iran for two consecutive days, citing the need to respond to an Iranian attack on merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran carried out missile and drone attacks against US facilities in countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan.
On July 8, during a NATO summit in Turkey, U.S. President Trump said that he believed the memorandum of understanding reached between the United States and Iran had “ended.” Iran has also repeatedly stated that this memorandum of understanding is no longer valid.
