Brazilian presidential elections have not yet officially been voted for, but the battleground has already crossed national borders.
On July 25th, Argentine President Mitterrer traveled to São Paulo to attend the Brazilian Liberal Party Congress. He supported Fábio Bozonero, the son of former President Roberto Bozano and a presidential candidate. Not only did he urge Brazilian voters to resist what he called "socialist trash," but he also publicly insulted Luiz Inácio Lula and attacked Brazil's judicial system. Subsequently, the Brazilian government recalled its ambassador to Argentina, and on August 5th, it reduced diplomatic relations with Argentina to the level of an envoy. The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there is "no precedent" for a foreign president attacking a national head of state, the judiciary, or the Brazilian people within Brazil's territory.
Another front comes from Washington.
On August 4, the Trump administration revoked the visa of Brazilian Ambassador to the US Maria Luísa Ribeiro Vitori, citing Brazil's refusal to allow two U.S. State Department officials to enter the country and its failure to approve Daniel Perez, who was nominated by Trump as the ambassador to Brazil. The Brazilian side claimed that the two American officials were planning to question Brazil's electronic voting system before elections, which is why they were denied visas. The U.S. State Department denied any intention of interference in this matter.
On the surface, these are two independent diplomatic disputes. However, considering the context of Brazil’s presidential elections in October, a transnational political chain becomes quite clear: Trump and Mila publicly support Latin American right-wing forces, while Flavio attempts to inherit his father Bosonaro’s political legacy. Their common opponent is Lula and the Latin American left-wing faction he represents.
This is not yet a ‘right-wing alliance’ with organizational structures and unified command. There is no evidence that the campaigns in Washington, Buenos Aires, and Veravio are coordinating their actions. More precisely, it is a transnational political network that is connected by ideology, personal relationships among leaders, and common enemies.
Mila offers a political performance. As a foreign president, he appeared directly at the Brazilian opposition campaign rally, describing the Brazilian elections as a regional battle against socialism. Trump has more substantial tools at his disposal: tariffs, visas, diplomatic personnel, and the U.S. government's public attention to the Brazilian electoral system can all directly affect Brazil's domestic political agenda.
The Trump administration’s previous tariffs on Brazilian goods have become part of the political controversy in Brazil. A survey released in July showed that 42% of respondents said the tariff dispute made them more inclined to support Lula, while only 27% said they switched to favoring Flavio. Another poll taken during the same period showed that Lula led Flavio with 42% of the vote in the first round of simulations.
This means that external pressure may have an opposite effect.
Lula originally had to face issues such as economic performance, political fatigue, and long-term political polarization. However, the high-profile involvement of Trump and Milley gave him a more mobilizing theme: this election is no longer just a fight between left and right, but a "sovereignty defense battle" over whether Brazil can independently decide its national leaders.
Therefore, Flavio faces a dangerous question: will he run as a representative of Brazil’s right-wing parties, or will he rely on the support of foreign right-wing leaders to compete for the presidency? Foreign endorsement can strengthen his position, but it can also provoke resentment among middle-of-the-road voters.
Therefore, 'surrounding Lula' is not an exaggeration in a political sense. It is more like a convergence of multiple forces based on common interests, rather than a well-planned international operation.
Trump wants to expand America's political influence in Latin America, while Milley hopes to become a leading figure of the regional right. The Bosonaro family, on the other hand, needs international support to maintain their political existence. However, the more they intervene publicly, the easier it is for Lula to portray himself as a representative of Brazil who resists external interference.
Whether this cross-border siege will ultimately weaken Lula or push him back to the pinnacle of nationalism could become the most critical variable in Brazil's elections.
