A negotiation between the US and Iran, which Trump announced was “underway,” has been denied by Iran. At the same time, reports of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that the negotiating table has not yet been set up, and pressure on the battlefield has already begun.
Around 2 a.m. on August 4th, a cargo ship reported being hit by an "unidentified flying object" in the Hormuz Strait, located approximately 37 kilometers northeast of Oman’s Hasaab. The British Maritime Trade Operations Office confirmed receipt of the report. British security company Ambrey stated that the ship's hull was damaged. Details such as the ship's name, flag, cargo carried, and specific damage conditions have not been released by relevant authorities, nor has any organization immediately claimed responsibility.
On August 3th, local time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations between the United States and Iran were “underway,” and mentioned that the contacts were initiated at the request of Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries. He warned that this was Iran’s “last chance” to sign a “good agreement,” otherwise, there could be actions aimed at targeting Iranian leadership.
Just one day before, Trump announced a suspension of a new round of “major strikes” against Iran. According to him, Iran and several Middle Eastern countries requested time to reach an agreement that would lead to the immediate and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat. Trump further stated that Iran had actively requested a meeting, and could even be said to be “begging” for negotiations.
But Iran provided a completely opposite version.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagheri said that there are currently no negotiations with the United States, nor are any meetings scheduled. Iran does not plan to host foreign delegations, and will not send negotiators abroad in the coming days. Except for Foreign Minister Ali Khamenei, who is currently attending religious activities in Iraq, all of Iran's negotiators are located within the country.
Tehran only acknowledges that it is discussing navigation management issues related to the Hormuz Strait with Oman, including the establishment of a safe passage route. Iran emphasizes that this does not mean negotiating with the United States, nor does it mean accepting the “comprehensive opening of the Strait” proposed by the US. US officials also told CBS that there are no plans for any “new” negotiations between the US and Iran. Therefore, it is more likely that the Gulf states are still passing messages between the two sides, but no formal talks have been established that are recognized by both parties.
The latest situation in the Hormuz Strait has also cooled down Trump’s optimistic statements.
Data shows that on August 3, only 6 ships with positioning signals passed through the Strait of Hormuz. These included 3 oil tankers and 3 bulk carriers, fewer than the 7 ships on the previous day. All of these ships followed the Iranian side route. The Strait was responsible for about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas transportation before the war. With continuous attacks, it means that this key passage for global energy transport is still far from returning to normal.
The real disagreement between the United States and Iran lies in who will control the strait. The United States believes that the understanding reached by both parties in June requires Iran to open the strait; Iran, however, insists that the agreement retains its authority to manage shipping traffic. After the relevant arrangements broke down in early July, Tehran has publicly refused to negotiate with Washington.
So, who needs negotiations more? In the short term, Trump seems to be in a more urgent situation. The United States needs to restore shipping operations, lower oil prices, and find a diplomatic solution to postpone large-scale sanctions. Just the news that negotiations might lead to breakthroughs caused Brent crude oil to fall by about 7%.
But in the long term, Iran is under greater military and economic pressure, and also needs to cool down. However, Tehran still has the card of the Strait of Hormuz, and is reluctant to admit that it is returning to the negotiating table under the threat of US forces.
Both parties need an agreement, but they must convince their domestic audiences that the other party is the one who seeks harmony. This is precisely why this negotiation has been 'underway' yet seems to be 'non-existent'.
