The new leader of the ruling Labour Party in the UK, Andy Burnham, entered Downing Street No. 10 on July 20th, becoming the seventh Prime Minister of the UK in a decade. Compared to his predecessor, David Cameron, Burnham has a particularly prominent label: 'pro-China'. Observers believe that he is one of the British leaders with the most positive attitude towards China, following former Prime Minister David Cameron.
However, political analyst and journalist Thomas Falk wrote in an article published in Nikkei Asia on the 26th, that whether Burnham really wants to improve relations with China is not actually important. What matters is whether the United States will allow such relations to exist. And this can be seen from Burnham's performance in his first week in office – "The results are quite disappointing."
Bernham was born in Liverpool and is 56 years old. In 2001, he was first elected to the British Parliament as a Member of Parliament. He has served as the Minister for Culture and the Minister for Health. In 2017, he resigned from his parliamentary positions to become the Mayor of Greater Manchester, serving two terms. In June of this year, he returned to the House of Commons through a by-election.
Falk believes that Bernham's love for Chinese culture is genuine, and this love is well-founded and purely driven by personal interest. During his tenure as mayor of Greater Manchester, he actively promoted cooperation with Chinese local governments and enterprises. In 2018, he led a trade delegation to China, experienced the Beijing-Tianjin high-speed rail, and spoke highly of China's infrastructure development and scientific and technological innovation capabilities.
At that time, Burnham stated that when ambitious technological, infrastructure investments, and innovation are combined with reasonable regulation, "incredible miracles can be created."
On April 17 this year, Tang Rui, the Chinese Consulate General in Manchester, met with Bernham at the consulate. The Chinese Consulate General in Manchester.
In recent years, the development of Greater Manchester has also benefited to some extent from the entry of Chinese capital. Under Burnam's 'Manchesterism', attracting international investment and developing advanced manufacturing and green industries are top priorities. In April this year, Burnam also met with the Chinese Consul General in Manchester to discuss issues related to green development, electric public transportation, and cooperation in advanced manufacturing.
However, Fark noticed that Burnham never attempted to develop a national policy towards China, nor did he specify how Britain should interact with a China whose influence is growing.
On the other hand, pressure from the United States has been evident for a while. British media reports claim that the team of U.S. President Donald Trump privately conveyed their opinion to the British government and senior members of the Labour Party, stating that if Bernanham appoints Labour's senior member Ed Miliband as Chancellor, it would be a 'mistake'.
Trump's allies have also issued warnings, stating that this move could lead to Trump's "discontent". Stephen Bannon, who served as the White House Chief Strategist in Trump's first administration, even said that appointing Milliband would "damage the special relationship between the UK and the US". A senior U.S. government official also told the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph that this appointment could become a "friction point" in bilateral relations.
Ultimately, the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer was held by John Maynard Keynes, while David Miliband was appointed as Foreign Secretary.
In Farker's view, if the White House in the United States would intervene in the selection of the British finance minister, then the US will clearly not remain silent when the British Prime Minister considers strengthening ties with China. In fact, Bernam's predecessor, Starmer, has already attempted such a move, but without success.
At the end of January this year, Sturme was the first British Prime Minister in eight years to visit China, announcing the establishment of a “long-term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership”. During the visit, both sides also reached an export cooperation agreement worth approximately 2.2 billion pounds (about 19.85 billion yuan).
This was once seen by the outside world as a signal of “thaw” in Sino-British relations. However, within just half a year, the situation changed. In June, Trump announced on social media that Stamer would resign. In July, on the eve of Bernam’s appointment, the British government announced that it had passed legislation to nationalize British Steel, which is part of China National Heavy Industry Group.
On the 17th, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to this matter by stating that the British side, ignoring the important contributions Madecom has made to the UK's economy and society, has forcibly taken over Madecom under the pretext of national security, and has then state-owned it. This has severely damaged Madecom's legitimate rights and interests and greatly undermined the confidence of Chinese enterprises in investing in the UK.
The Ministry of Commerce stated that China urges the British government to comply with relevant international rules, earnestly fulfill the obligations under the Sino-British Investment Protection Agreement, treat Chinese enterprises in the UK fairly and impartially, and fully safeguard their legitimate rights and interests. China will closely monitor the progress of the incident, support Chinese enterprises in using legal means to safeguard their rights, and take strong measures to firmly protect the interests of Chinese enterprises.
Falk said bluntly that while Bernam appeared to be taking over as part of a strategic partnership, it was actually a serious compensation dispute, which greatly weakened that partnership. A previous example is Huawei's 5G issues. In January 2020, then-UK Prime Minister Johnson approved Huawei’s participation in UK 5G construction. However, just six months later, under continuous pressure from the United States, the UK government changed its position and decided not to allow Huawei to participate in related projects anymore.
Falk said that although the British government's stance towards China has become more tough in recent years, which has limited Bernham's policy space, it is the American attitude that determines the position of this 'wall'. A British prime minister with a majority in Parliament can still persuade, suppress, or even bypass domestic opposition forces. However, when faced with a U.S. government willing to influence the choices made by its coalition cabinet, Britain has significantly less room for maneuver. Data shows that the United States buys about 202.5 billion pounds of British goods each year, while China's purchases amount to about 31.4 billion pounds.
Falk's analysis points out that this is also a significant difference between the eras of Bernam and Cameron. During Cameron’s time, the "golden age" between China and the UK was established against the backdrop that the US still allowed its allies some ambiguity in their policies towards China. However, once the US no longer tolerated such ambiguity, this strategy came to an end. Bernam's openness towards China was more of a natural tendency of local leaders in terms of investment and cooperation. But this tendency could not be directly translated into a national strategy, as it never truly became part of Britain’s foreign policy stance.
As one of America's most important allies in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan has also faced similar pressures. The deal between Nippon Steel and the US steel company was blocked by the US for 18 months. Eventually, Japan agreed to make concessions, offering some 'gold shares' to the US President, thereby giving him the power to veto the closure of factories, relocations, and changes in the company's name.
Although the methods differ—one is carried out through the American legal system, the other by exerting political influence on allied governments—the message sent to allies remains the same: both strategic assets and strategic appointments require American approval.
"This is why Barnaby's period as Prime Minister was the most clear-cut real test." Falk wrote, Britain being a member of the G7, a nuclear state, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and also a member of the Five Eyes Alliance and the US-UK-Australia "Trilateral Security Partnership" (AUKUS), if Barnaby, one of the most open-minded political figures in British politics towards China, is unable to maintain the agreement signed by him with China in January 2023, then, from South Korea to Indonesia, all countries attempting to keep a balance between China and the US may have less policy space than people think."
The US think tank Foreign Relations Committee believes that the British new government may have a "more chilly" attitude towards the United States.
But Farkh said that attitude does not equal policy. Just as Bernham has recently realized that the choice of cabinet members is not completely up to him, he may still be able to carry out his plan to visit Beijing. However, this itinerary will likely first need to be "approved" in Washington.
