According to a report by the US 'The Hill' on July 26 local time, with only 100 days left until the 2026 US midterm elections, latest predictions show that the Democrats have a greater chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives. However, the Republicans still have a slight advantage and are likely to retain control of the Senate.
The Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ), an American election forecasting organization, predicts that the Democratic Party has a 60% chance of winning the House of Representatives, while the Republican Party has a 60% chance of retaining the Senate. If this prediction comes true, the Democrats would gain 225 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans would get 210 seats. The balance in the Senate would remain at 50-50, with the Republicans continuing to control the Senate based on Vice President Vance's decision.
Reports and analyses suggest that both parties in the United States currently face their own unfavorable circumstances. The Republican Party is suffering from the escalating Iranian conflict and rising oil prices, with economic issues continuing to impact the support rate for the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is facing growing divisions within its ranks over future policies. Candidates who represent so-called “democratic socialists” and “progressives” have won in many primaries, causing concerns among centrists. This has also become an important issue for Trump and the Republican Party to use to criticize Democrats as being “too extreme.”
Recent polls show that the competition between the two parties has intensified compared to early this month. A survey conducted by DDHQ on congressional voting intentions shows that Democrats currently lead Republicans by an average of 4 percentage points, which is less than the 6-7 percentage points advantage they had last month. However, a latest poll by Emerson College indicates that Democrats have a 11-point lead. Analysts believe it is difficult to determine whether this represents a new upward trend in Democratic voting intentions.
Analysts point out that the Senate election in Michigan will be a crucial battleground determining who controls the Senate. If the Republican Party wins the state, their chances of retaining control of the Senate increase to 86%. If Democrats aim to regain the majority in the Senate, they can hardly lose Michigan.
DDHQ believes that the current overall election situation is far from reaching the advantageous level seen during the 2018 Democratic ‘Blue Wave’. The outcomes of several key swing-state elections in the coming months will still determine the ultimate control of the U.S. Congress.
