Since Trumps second term in office, his poll numbers have been declining steadily, which has also affected the Republican Party. You can see that Trumps net support rate has been declining over time. This figure is lower than during his first term, as well as compared to Bidens performance during the same period.
Trumps net support rate (red line) shows a trend of change. Photo provided by the author; the same applies below.
So, not surprisingly, the trend in predictions regarding whether the Republican Party will be able to retain its majority in the Senate during this mid-term election looks like this:
Of course, these predictions are still far from the actual election results. However, this trend is quite clear. Even if the parties that govern during the mid-term elections will experience certain losses, the polls for the Trump administration might turn these losses into significant failures.
Its important to note that, compared to presidential elections where attention is focused on national issues, American voters are more concerned about local issues that relate to their own lives during congressional elections. While Trump can claim that the economy is strong and that the country is powerful, this doesnt really help voters who are currently facing problems related to prices and immigration issues (or immigration enforcement issues).
Therefore, theres no need to assign any significance related to the midterm elections to Trumps recent diplomatic actions. Unless these actions are directly related to the daily lives of votersthats why the Strait of Hormuz is now particularly important. American voters dont really care about how many people die in military conflicts, and to some extent, they dont even care about how many soldiers die in combat. But what they do care about is their own bills and wallets.
However, with just over five months left until the midterm elections, the Trump administration and the Republican Party still have time to adjust their strategies. The preparations and efforts leading up to the election have only just begun.
The Republican Party currently has two major advantages. One of these advantages comes from redistricting. Before each election, both the Democrats and Republicans strive to reconfigure the electoral districts so that each individual district has a majority of voters supporting their party. This way, without changing voters preferences, more seats can be gained simply through district-based arrangements.
According to the current progress of electoral district reconfigurations, while Democrats may gain 4–6 seats through such changes, Republicans could gain 9–17 seats.
Another important advantage of the Republican Party is its abundant financial resources:
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Thanks to the support from wealthy donors, as well as Trumps personal ability to raise funds, Republican organizations currently have significantly more cash available than Democrats. Although in individual elections, Democratic candidates fundraising capabilities are not much worse than those of Republicans, the overall financial advantage of Republicans can determine the outcome at critical moments.
However, at this point in the Republican Partys election campaign, what needs to be focused on most is not money and electoral districtsthese are traditional issues. What really matters is Trump himself. A very unusual phenomenon is that Trump is taking this mid-term election as an opportunity to continue his internal party cleansing efforts, and to use this situation to get his own allies into positions of power.
In the just-concluded primary elections for U.S. Senate seats in Texas, Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn was defeated by Ken Paxton, a candidate backed by Trump. Cornyn had been serving in the Senate for four terms, and was generally considered unmatched both within the Republican Party and among its opponents. However, Trump believed that Cornyn belonged to the establishment camp and was not loyal enough to him. Therefore, Trump supported Paxton, who represents the MAGA movement.
Trumps supporter, Paxton, defeated the four-term Republican Senator from Texas, Cornyn.
Importantly, just a few days ago, Republican Congressman Thomas Massie also lost his primary election in Kentucky. This was because Massie had differences with Trump on issues such as the Epstein case and Iran. As a result, Trump turned to supporting the newcomer, thereby removing him from his decades-long position as a congressman.
Further back in Louisiana, veteran Senator Bill Cassidy also lost the election to a candidate backed by Trump. Cassidys feud with Trump dates back to the 2021 Capitol Hill riot. He was one of the senators who voted in favor of impeachment against Trump. Although Cassidy remained loyal to Trump throughout his second term in office, voting in favor of most of Trumps cabinet appointments and laws, it seems clear that Trump still considered revenge more important.
In addition to these well-known and experienced members of Congress, other local legislators also faced elimination. For example, at the beginning of May, five state legislators in Indiana all lost their elections. The reason was the same: they offended Trump, and as a result, they were defeated by Trumps political opponents.
This also fits Trumps vindictive nature, as well as his consistent approach since his second term in officenamely, settling accounts. People outside the party should be settled, just as those within the party should be settled. Even those who once shared the same stance as him should be settled if they have conflicts with him.
Although the so-called separation of powers has always been merely a facade in the United States, Congress and political parties can still maintain a certain degree of independence. Nixon, who once wanted to become emperor, had to resign under pressure from party members after the Watergate scandal. Even Trump during his first term couldnt do anything about those members who didnt listen to him after the 2020 elections. He had to endure this situation until many years later before taking revenge.
After all, generally speaking, members of parliament are elected based on the support of voters in their constituencies and their own partys backing. They have no direct connection to the president. But now, Trump has been sentencing various veteran Republican lawmakers one after another, essentially ordering them to step down from their positions. This situation is completely different from before. Those who follow me will prosper, while those who oppose me will perish. In the past, few presidents had the power to control the fate of their partys members in such a way.
This is what I wrote earlier: Even though Trumps poll numbers have declined among neutral voters, and many of those who supported MAGA have distanced themselves from him, he still maintains absolute dominance among the Republican base. This means that any Republican politician currently trying to win any party election no longer relies on past achievements or regional support. What matters now is loyalty to Trump!
Video screenshot showing Trumps candidate winning in Republican primaries in several states.
Of course, this practice of clearing out ones own people before a major conflict is certainly satisfying from the perspective of Trump personally. However, it may not be a good thing for the election results this year. After all, those Republican candidates who were cleared out by Trump had spent many years in their constituencies, and they certainly had their merits. Meanwhile, the new generation of candidates pushed forward by Trump might win support from the Republican base, but they could also lose support from a larger group of neutral voters. After all, not everyone agrees with MAGAs policies. For example, Paxton, who won the primaries in Texas, performs much worse in polls when facing Democratic opponents compared to Cornyn, who lost the primaries.
So, although the Republican Party is facing more difficult elections right now, Trump is busy eliminating his own supporters during the primaries. He seems to think that those who are part of his network are the ones who have an advantage, and that anyone can win under such circumstances.
This reminds us of the time before the 2020 elections. Trump was busy getting rid of those Republican leaders who disagreed with him. It seemed like he had an advantage in re-election, acting like a arrogant leader. But in the end, Trumps arrogance led to his defeat among many neutral voters, even Republican voters. Arrogance always ends in failure.
Of course, this cycle of winning soldiers who become arrogant, and arrogant soldiers who inevitably lose is something that both parties in the United States have to experience. The Democrats lost the 2024 and 2016 elections. One important reason for this was their obsession with identity politics and the ideology of urban elites. They failed to recognize that a broader electorate has no interest in topics related to gender differences. They also failed to realize that minority groups wont automatically vote for them simply because Democrats claim to be politically correct, but actually fail to live up to those claims.
But why does the Democratic Party keep making these mistakes? Its because they rely on these tactics to win elections. Although, if we really take a look back, the Democrats victory in 2020 was more of a failure for Trump than a success for the Democratic partys policies. But this victory still gives the Democrats a sense of confidence in their path and continues to support a group of politicians who believe in and practice those same policies.
Just a few days ago, the Democratic Party released a preliminary report analyzing why the 2024 elections failed. In fact, the report covered all those familiar issues: Democrats being out of touch with the people, Biden not providing enough support to Harris, and economic issues not being properly addressed But even this report, both in terms of its preparation and release, led to a series of internal party conflicts.
So, as you can see, although the Democratic Party has been doing well recently and won some key local elections, they are merely taking advantage of the current anti-Trump sentiment. They havent really understood their own problems or adjusted their policies accordingly.
So its quite normal for many people to mock the Democrats, saying that aside from their opposition to Trump, they have no real policies at all. If it werent for the cycle of arrogance and failure that Trump and the Republicans engage in, it would indeed have been difficult for Democrats to win over the years.
Of course, the Republican Party also benefits from this cycle. After all, if the Republicans are hosting a victory celebration for their win in the 2024 elections, then those who should be at the table are the incompetent Biden and the ineffective Harris.
Therefore, to understand how this years U.S. midterm elections will unfold, it is essential to see which party will play the role of the winning side, and which party will be trapped by the illusion of having an advantage. Its also important to see which party will be led astray by the illusion of having an advantage, and which party will take advantage of the mistakes made by its opponents to secure victory.
What specific policies? The responses to voters, the responsibilities towards the country none of these matters much anymore. Its like when Biden came into powerit wasnt because people really liked Biden; it was simply because people wanted to get rid of Trump. And Trump returned to the White House because people realized that Biden was even worse. The two parties seem to be controlled by some kind of divine will: if you lose, you must win; if you win, you must lose.
Why can this cycle of fate continue indefinitely? Why do political parties simply compete to make fewer mistakes, rather than competing to show more concern for their voters? In the end, its because Americans themselves are trapped in this cycleevery few years, they have to choose between chocolate-flavored feces and feces-flavored chocolate. So, what difference does it make whether this choice results in something absurd or not?
