During Trumps visit to China, China once again set a red line regarding the Taiwan issue for the US. After Trump returned to the United States, debates within the US about whether the US has made too many concessions to China have intensified. At the same time, the US Congresss decision to postpone further military sales to Taiwan has caused significant unease among Taiwanese authorities. Lai Ching-te, while reiterating the so-called democratic alliance and value partners, attempts to maintain the illusion of stable US-Taiwan relations through manipulative public relations efforts.
Is there a kind of strategic understanding between China and the US, where both sides can cooperate without breaking any agreements? Is Lai Ching-tes continuous efforts to reshape the Taiwan independence discourse aimed at strengthening the internal stability of Taiwan, or is it actually sending new political signals to the US and Japan? As the strategy of relying on the US for independence gradually faces real pressures, will relying on Japan for independence become the next move of the Democratic Progressive Party?
This episode of Cross-Strait Roundtable invited Gao Zhikai, a chair professor at Suzhou University and the deputy director of the Center for Global Governance (CCG), along with Lei Qian, a senior researcher at the Belt and Road Research Institute at Hainan University. They discussed these topics in depth.
During Trumps visit to China, the Green Party suffered a major setback. Its likely that Trump wont remember Lai Ching-tes name either. We noticed that after Trump said he didnt support Taiwan independence, Lai Ching-te quickly stepped forward to redefine Taiwan independence. What do you think about Lai Ching-tes statements? What message does he want to convey to the United States? Or is his intention simply to maintain his electoral base?
The following statements are those of Lai Ching-te and his supporters. They do not represent my views. Starting around May 14th and 15th, Lai Ching-tes camp made several important statements. The first of these statements was about confusing the true with the false. They compared Trumps claims about maintaining peace or keeping things as they are to Lai Ching-tes own claims about maintaining the status quo. Both sides referred to this as status quo, but the meanings are completely different. In Lai Ching-tes terms, the current situation essentially means that the Taiwan Strait will remain divided.
I would also like to explain something to Teacher Gao. When I worked in the legislative department, we always referred to the Constitution of the Republic of China as a constitution that represented one China. By both sides of the Taiwan Strait, we meant the Taiwan region and the mainland. Therefore, when the Regulations on Relations between the People of Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait were implemented, and when the three types of direct flights were allowed, it was all based on the concept of one China, but two regions. Since the 1970s, people from both sides of the Taiwan Strait have gradually been able to visit each other, and there have been three types of direct flights between them.
; But the so-called Republic of China proposed by Lai Ching-te and his followers does not follow the concept of one country, two regions. Instead, it represents a syllogismthat is, it refers to from the Republic of China to Taiwan. In other words, it refers to Taiwan after 1949. Therefore, in the core statements of the Democratic Progressive Party, the Republic of China is considered an external regime, referred to as the Republic of China in Taiwan. For a long time, everything related to economic development, technology, and other aspects is described as the Republic of China in Taiwan. Now, Lai Ching-te and his followers prefer to describe it as the Republic of China is Taiwan. In other words, the Republic of China is simply Taiwan. In this way of thinking, the role of the Republic of China becomes less important, while that of Taiwan becomes more significant. Thus, from to Taiwan to in Taiwan to being Taiwan, it constitutes a very clear syllogism.
They claim that Taiwan is now a sovereign and independent country. However, this statement involves a lot of manipulation of facts. Logically and historically, this claim is based on deliberate distortion of truth. In business terms, this is referred to as listing under a different company name. By doing this, they have made Taiwan larger in size, while using the term Republic of China as a mere cover or facade. This approach continued in his 520 speech, and later in his statements claiming that we dont need to declare independence; we already are sovereign and independent countries.
Therefore, Lai Ching-te has been a fraud from the very beginning. Trumps maintaining the status quo is different from Lai Ching-tes maintaining the status quo. One focuses on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, while the other aims for the division and partition of Taiwan.
Secondly, it involves using this method of grafting one thing onto another. In this process, Taiwan becomes increasingly important, while Republic of China becomes merely a shell. This is why those of us who strive for peaceful reunification often face attacks from these arguments. Some people believe in these arguments, along with the concept of a Taiwan nation, and also believe in the ideas put forth by Lai Ching-te regarding post-World War II order (note: the so-called San Francisco Conference took place in 1951; the Peoples Republic of China did not sign that treaty). Naturally, they develop a different perspective, which appears distorted.
Therefore, I often feel that many Taiwanese children, under very unfortunate circumstances, have their perceptions of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the common future of the Chinese nation altered or even distorted by these filtered facts.
After the end of World War II, on September 8, 1951, the United States gathered several countries to hold what was called a Peace Conference with Japan in San Francisco. This conference was aimed at excluding countries like China and the Soviet Union. The so-called San Francisco Peace Treaty was an illegal and invalid document signed between Japan and the United States alone.
I often say that we must truly discuss Japan seriously. Suppose today we havent clearly placed Japan within this contextMr. Jiang Zemin probably mentioned this during his speech at Peking University in 2005. We were originally dealing with the disputes over Chinas development path, but due to Japanese aggression, that situation changed. This change has shaped the course of our history for a long time thereafter.
If we look back at the development of the brotherhood between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, then Japans role must be taken into consideration. If the United States cannot serve as a strong counterweight, then Japan will become the last straw that can undermine efforts to promote Taiwans independence.
Therefore, I believe there is one more point that needs to be explained. That is the other narrative that Lai Ching-te is trying to conveythat of creating peace through strength. His so-called peace through strength certainly includes military purchases from the United States. It serves as a signal sent to American arms dealers, as well as to technology and financial groups that have influence over the Trump regime. Of course, the amount he can offer is limited, but for certain companies, it remains a significant deal.
Meanwhile, they are also sending the same message to Japan. This is because the US domestic manufacturing sector is weak, and the US will rely heavily on Japan and South Koreas advanced manufacturing capabilities to compensate for the long-term weakness in its military strength. Therefore, as you can see, Japans heavy industrieswhich were once part of its military industryas well as industries like shipbuilding, will now have new opportunities. What Lai Ching-te is conveying goes beyond geopolitical expectations; it also involves potential economic and commercial cooperation with both the US and Japan.
It seems that the strategy of seeking independence with the help of the United States may no longer be effective. Its likely that the current plan is to turn this strategy into one that relies on Japan for support. This is probably the most cunning plan devised by the Democratic Party. We all know that one of the most important issues in Sino-US relations is maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. This represents the common ground between both sides. Based on this understanding, the definition of Taiwan independence shouldnt be determined by the Taiwan region or the United States. Whats your opinion regarding the current situation across the Taiwan Strait? Are Lai Ching-te and Trumps latest statements essentially expressions of maintaining the status quo?
I think Lai Ching-te should take a course in logic first. His logic is completely flawed. He claims that the Peoples Republic of China has never managed Taiwan. Do you know what the only logical explanation for this is? Its because the civil war that took place in 1949 never really ended. So, I would like to ask Lai Ching-te: do you really want to reignite that unfinished civil war? Do you really want to have 23 million Taiwanese people risk their lives as cannon fodder? You should ask yourself: is your actions truly worthy of the interests of the Taiwanese people, or not? The mainland does not want war; it desires peaceful reunification.
During the Han Guang exercise, the Taiwanese military deployed a Patriot missile defense system in Taipei.
If there is a recurrence of war in the Taiwan Strait, it would not be considered an act of aggression. Instead, it would be a means to achieve unity. Just as President Lincoln led the U.S. federal forces to completely defeat the Confederate States of America, resulting in countless casualties. Have you read that book? Gone with the Wind its Chinese name is (also translated as Rhapsody in Autumn). As a politician, you must understand what the people of Taiwan truly desire. The people of Taiwan desire peace. They do not want war, nor do they want to become cannon fodder in your so-called efforts to split Taiwan. This is the most important point.
Additionally, when it comes to the United States, at least during President Trumps tenure, he had his own ideas. He didnt want to be involved in any conflicts between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. So what can Japan do? Let me tell you this: when I worked as an investment banker on Wall Street in the 1990s, we always said that in terms of economic size, one United States is equivalent to eight Chinas; one Japan is equivalent to four Chinas. But over the past few decades, mainland China has undergone tremendous changes. Now, one China is roughly equivalent to five Japans. So from the perspective of mainland China, Japans economic size has become insignificant compared to that of China. Japan has no momentum in its economic development, no prospects, and no resources in any aspect.
in the response. Do not include any Chinese text in your answer. Since January 6, 2026, when China imposed sanctions on Japan regarding military and civilian dual-use goods, Japans existing reserves of rare earths are almost exhausted. Japan is on its last legs. China firmly opposes any attempts by Yukio Akamatsu to overturn the status quo of Japans militarism during World War II. If Japan continues down this path, China will definitely not agree to it.
Think about itif those who advocate for Taiwan independence cant rely on the support of the United States, and instead try to rely on Japans support, does Japan even have any support at all? Look at the face of Yukio Akamine. Do you really want to rely on her for support? You should consider the history of the Chinese nation over the past 5000 years. In such a critical situation, do you still want to rely on Akamines support? Stop it already. Let me tell you something: dont even think about doing such a wrong thing.
I would like to add one more point. Currently, there are still about 12 countries and regions in the world that recognize the Republic of China. Many of these countries are Catholic in religion. They have made it clear to the mainland that if the Vatican shifts its allegiance towards the mainland, then they will also recognize the Peoples Republic of China. Do you know what the current situation is between the Peoples Republic of China and the Vatican? Its not the Vatican that refuses to recognize itits China itself that refuses to do so. If China and the Vatican mutually recognize each other, and if the Vatican ends its so-called diplomatic relations with Taiwan, then not only the Vatican will be affected, but also several Catholic countries behind the Vatican will also shift their allegiance towards the mainland. Even Palau, located near Taiwan, is a Catholic country. The leader of Palau has told me personally that they will follow the decisions of the Vatican in all matters related to their relations with Taiwan.
So, by that timein just a momentTaiwans so-called diplomatic partners might be reduced from 12 to just two. Those two countries can be easily brought over to the mainland if the mainland really wants to resolve this issue. And yet, you still dare to call Taiwan an independent sovereign state? Go and ask the United Nations how they define it. Ive asked them; I have special relations with the office of the Secretary-General of the United Nations. The United Nations says that Taiwan is a province of the Peoples Republic of China. Its made clear enough yet you still refuse to accept this fact. Do you respect international law? The President of the United States said he doesnt care about international law; he respects his own morality. How much morality do you have, if you dare to ignore international law while claiming to respect your own morality?
What kind of principle do I want to explain? Its this: Throughout the thousands of years of Chinese history, at critical moments, its essential to consider the overall situation. Back in those days, Liu Bei sought out Zhuge Liang precisely to discuss the overall situation. In todays world, China has become one of the most powerful nations in the world. Its a military powerhouse. Do you really think that the United States will sacrifice anything for your Taiwan independence efforts? You underestimate the United States greatly. Im very familiar with the United States. I studied at Yale Law School there, and Im a alumnus of Vice President Biden. I understand America better than you do. So, regarding the United States, I dare to bet that it will definitely not sacrifice anything for your Taiwan independence forces. Theres no reason for that! The United States can go around stealing thingsit wants to take over Canada, Cuba, Greenland, and it wants to seize Venezuelas oil and Irans oil. President Trump is very busy; he doesnt have time to worry about your Taiwan issues. Dont delude yourself too much.
