The news of a possible complete ban on diesel exports from Russia has drawn attention. Reuters reported on July 1st local time that this could lead to another round of fuel crises.
Currently, the international market is still recovering from the impacts caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. After the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 13% of the world’s oil supply. Diesel prices soared to record highs in early April, and the sudden shortage led to severe shortages, depleting the already scarce global inventory.
After the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, the reopening of the Strait brought rapid relief. Although oil transportation is far lower than before the war, the resumption of Gulf oil flow brings hope to the refined oil market. If Russia completely bans diesel exports, it would be another blow.
The Russian side's final decision has not yet been officially made. Russian experts believe that Russian diesel exports may be restricted, but they will not be completely prohibited.
Recently, Russian President Putin acknowledged that shortages in fuel supply have occurred in various regions of Russia, and there is currently consideration of implementing a ban on diesel fuel exports.
Reuters pointed out that the shortage was caused by Ukrainian drones attacking Russian refineries.
For several months, Ukraine has been intensifying attacks on energy facilities in Russia. As the world's third-largest oil producer and a major diesel supplier, Russian energy infrastructure has been continuously damaged in recent months. It is reported that Moscow's key refineries were attacked twice in June, with production expected to be suspended for at least six months.
It is estimated that Russia has a refining capacity of about 7 million barrels per day. Approximately one-fourth of this capacity was disrupted by the attacks. The impact was felt within Russia itself, with rising fuel prices and long queues at gas stations in some areas of the country.
On June 29, 2026, local time, in the suburbs of Moscow, Russia, vehicles were queuing up at a gas station owned by Russian Oil Company. Eastern IC
Additionally, two industry sources said that Russia is importing gasoline from India by sea to alleviate the fuel shortage problem.
According to data from the organization Kpler, Russian shipping diesel exports have decreased sharply in recent months. In June, exports dropped to 426,000 barrels per day, which is the lowest level since January 2017. This figure is lower than 827,000 barrels per day a year ago, when Russia was the world's second-largest diesel exporter after the United States, accounting for 11% of global maritime supply.
Currently, Turkey and Brazil remain the major buyers of Russian diesel, with the rest mainly going to Africa.
The impact of a complete ban on diesel exports will extend far beyond Russia’s borders, especially at this “poor timing”. According to Reuters, global refined oil inventories have dropped to concerning levels. Over the past few months, inventories have been rapidly depleted in order to compensate for the lack of supplies from the Middle East.
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. distillate oil inventories (including diesel and heating oil) approached 100 million barrels in May, marking the lowest level since 23 years. According to Insights Global data, diesel inventories in the main diesel import region of North-West Europe have decreased by about 20% since the start of the Iran war.
Additionally, the market is currently entering a critical period. Before the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere arrive, inventory adjustments are usually carried out, as demand increases for heating, freight, and agricultural purposes during the winter season.
The Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) indicates that despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the diesel cracking price differentials in northwestern Europe remain significantly higher than $40 per barrel. This is contrary to the trend of crude oil prices, which have fallen back to levels before the Iran war. In the first two months of 2026, the diesel cracking price differentials in northwestern Europe averaged slightly below $25 per barrel.
Reuters believes that the gradual normalization of crude oil supplies in the Gulf region can help alleviate some of the global fuel shortages, but it may not be sufficient. If Russia further reduces fuel supplies on the market, the currently fragile balance of supply and demand could quickly unravel. The result would be renewed pressure on diesel prices, further depletion of inventories, and increases in transportation, industrial, and consumer costs.
According to Alexey Belogoriev, research director at the Russian Energy and Finance Research Institute, who spoke with the Ura.ru news website, if the situation in the Russian domestic market deteriorates, Russian diesel exports may be restricted, but not completely banned.
He believes that from the perspective of overall supply and demand balance, there is no diesel shortage in Russia. ‘Diesel production is almost twice the domestic consumption. Of course, diesel production decreases as gasoline production does, but it still far exceeds domestic demand. This excess is used for exports.’
Belogorov pointed out that if the situation of diesel supply deteriorates in some regions, it is not due to a general shortage of supply, but rather due to logistics issues.
He stated that the decline in production in some regions has led to the reorganization of logistics processes, and bottlenecks have occurred in certain areas. The main reason for this is insufficient railway capacity. “It’s strange to try to solve this problem by banning exports.”
Currently, the Russian side has not made a final decision.
According to Russian International News Agency, on June 30 local time, when asked whether a decision to ban diesel exports had been made, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said: "No, but we are considering it."
He said that the Russian government is taking all necessary measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market, and is dealing with this issue every day.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak
He told reporters on the 29th that the Russian Ministry of Energy currently does not recommend banning diesel exports.
On July 1st, Novak emphasized that there is sufficient supply of gasoline and diesel in the Russian market as a whole.
According to TASS, Novak said that the current shortages and interruptions at some gas stations are mainly due to changes in fuel supply logistics. "These problems are being resolved quickly."
He pointed out that the increase in fuel prices mainly affects private gas stations, which is a normal market situation. This trend will tend to stabilize as the market reaches saturation.
In September 2023, the Russian government also announced temporary restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel in order to stabilize the domestic market. According to information posted on the official Telegram channel of the Russian government, these temporary restrictions would "help saturate the fuel market, thereby reducing the purchase prices for consumers."
