In 2026, France is already in the season of presidential elections.
As in the past, whenever this period arrives, strange and unpredictable events will occur. First, with a significant lead in public opinion surveys, Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right populist party National Union, was sentenced by court due to alleged economic issues. As a result, she was disqualified from running for election for five years. For a politician, this means the end of their political career. Of course, her supporters see this as a form of political murder.
Subsequently, French Socialist Party chairman Foul suddenly proposed to visit Taiwan and meet with its leader Lai Ching-te. He also stated that the purpose was to recognize Taiwan as a so-called de facto state and grant it the right to self-determination.
If the judicial proceedings against Le Pen are merely a political game within France, then the actions taken by the Socialist Party have spread domestic politics beyond French borders.
It should be said that this is a rather abnormal political event within France, with international implications.
The French Socialist Party has been in power twice during the Fifth Republic. It is a typical example of a traditional establishment party. Not only do they have a deep understanding of international politics, but they also always maintain a clear distinction between extreme political actions and their policies.
The current First Secretary of the Party, Olivier Faur, who joined the Party at the age of 16, is also a typical behind-the-scenes technocrat. He is known for his moderation and pragmatism. His entire career has been spent within parliaments and party organizations; he has mostly served as a advisor rather than as a elected local leader. He has held positions such as advisor to the Minister of Employment, deputy head of the cabinet under First Secretary Hollande, and secretary-general of the Socialist Party in the National Assembly. In other words, the electoral culture of pursuing any means necessary to win elections had little impact on him. In 2018, Faur was elected First Secretary despite the long-term decline within the party. He is thus known as the person who keeps the dishes clean.
It should be noted that neither the party nor he personally should have taken such a shocking action.
In contemporary French society, the issues that voters are most concerned about include purchasing power, prices, public safety, and employment-related issues affecting peoples livelihoods. All political parties focus on these issues in their efforts to attract voters. The ruling party, led by Macron, advocates for economic development as a solution to these challenges. The far-right populists emphasize security and order, while advocating for reducing immigration and related expenditures. They also want to allocate more resources to peoples livelihoods and provide more jobs for French citizens. The far-left Indomitable France focuses on distribution and eliminating poverty. However, the Socialist Party acts against public opinion, using Taiwan, which is located in East Asia, as a topic of discussion.
In todays French public opinion, even topics related to Ukraine have become tiresome. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its fifth year. Whether it comes to providing weapons or economic aid to Ukraine, support rates have dropped below 50%. Even the support rate for peacekeeping forces after the war is only 33%.
So, the political maneuvers of Social Party chairman Fuer are truly astonishing.
July 7, 2024, Paris, France. Olivier Faurisson, the first secretary of the French Socialist Party, delivered a speech after the results of the second round of voting in the National Assembly were announced. Perpetual Images
The first reason, of course, is Furl himself. He didnt participate in any elections, nor did he have any understanding of electoral politics. Therefore, his actions are likely based on intuition alone. When he became the party chairman in 2018, he failed to participate in the partys primary elections to run for president in 2022. This shows that the party didnt trust his political abilities. In contrast, Hollande, who served as party chairman for 11 years, was able to become a presidential candidate after going through the partys primary elections.
The second reason is that the Social Party, after he took over, did not manage to avoid losses. On the contrary, it remained in a state of survival or extinction.
The Social Party has been on a path toward becoming a bubble party since the elections in 2017. At that time, it received only 6.36% of the votes in the first round of voting, resulting in its immediate elimination from the election process. This figure was far lower than the 28.63% obtained by the Social Party in the previous election. Five years later, during the presidential elections, its vote share dropped to just 1.74%. This figure is well below the threshold of 5% required to qualify for government funding. This means that the party no longer has any supporters, and it has also lost its ability to receive electoral subsidies from the government. Without voter support, there are no more financial resources or talented individuals to support the party. Coupled with the lack of government subsidies, it becomes difficult even to sustain its existence.
The upcoming elections represent a last chance for both the Social Party and Furl himself to survive. However, the problem is that the Social Party is powerless to address the countrys difficult challenges, and it cannot offer any unique solutions that would attract voters. Therefore, under these pressures, it can only resort to extreme political actions in order to gain attention and hope to increase its support rate.
The third reason is to gain control over the right-wing discourse.
After becoming the party chairman in 2018, Foul tried to avoid further marginalization in parliamentary elections. To survive in this politically fragmented reality, he had no choice but to form an alliance with the far-left group Indomitable France and jointly establish the New Peoples Front. This is why a party that has become increasingly ineffective can still retain 69 seats in parliament. However, there are significant differences in political ideology and methods between the two parties, making this alliance nothing more than a last-minute compromise.
In 2025, when Leconni became Prime Minister, the Socialist Party seized the opportunity to cooperate with him. This allowed them to maintain a distance from the Unyielding France party. As a result, the Socialist Party played a crucial role in shaping policy decisions. They not only forced Leconnis government to accept the Socialist Partys demands regarding the suspension of pension reforms and the introduction of policies to increase social welfare, especially for university students, with benefits set at one euro per meal. They also successfully prevented several votes of no-confidence against the government. As a result, from January to February 2026, the government managed to pass its budget resolutions four times in a row in parliament. This achieved the political stability goal of having a functioning budget for the country, while ensuring that the government wouldnt collapse.
The success of this cooperation has increased the social partys bargaining power in dealing with the ultra-left Indomitable France. Subsequently, as France entered the presidential election season, the leader of the ultra-left Indomitable France, Mérançon, not only announced his candidacy for the 2027 elections, but also reiterated his commitment to the One China principle. In the eyes of the social party and Furl, this was an opportunity to further distance themselves from Mérançon and compete for control of the left-wing camps discourse and voters.
Finally, theres Fuls own political ambitions. Of course, any politician wants to become president, especially someone who heads a party with a long history and who has been in power twice. But Fuls experience is relatively limited, and his position within the party isnt very solid. For him, making provocative statements related to Taiwan can help him quickly establish himself as a hardliner, strengthen his position within the party, and enhance his personal reputation. This is seen by him as a political shortcut.
However, he calculated everything, except for the interests of the nation and the well-being of its citizens. In todays world, even the United States is constantly retreating on the Taiwan issue. As a leader of a traditional political party in France, he openly challenges Chinas core interests. This not only harms Sino-French relations but also has serious diplomatic and economic consequences. The ones who suffer are ordinary people. If it isnt unusual for an extreme political party to put its own interests above those of the nation, then the actions of the Socialist Party demonstrate a further deterioration of Western political systems.
In short, Furls attempt to jump off the stage was due to his being in a desperate situation politically in China. He tried to make a political gamble by challenging Chinas core interests. However, since this issue is far removed from public opinion, other political parties have their own campaign agendas, and they wont create any momentum for the Socialist Party. Therefore, this issue will definitely be ignored. China, on the other hand, firmly defends its sacred sovereignty. Thus, Furls attempt to risk national interests will only lead to even greater losses.
