On June 29th, Belarusian President Lukashenko began his 17th visit to China. Lukashenko joked that arriving in Beijing felt 'like coming home'.
And Lukashenko’s “return home” this time has sparked many speculations. The reasons include the lack of an announcement about his itinerary in advance, and his meeting with Russian President Putin before visiting China.
According to information from the Belarusian Presidential Press Service, reported by Bai Tong News on the 28th, Lukashenko is set off for East Asia and Southeast Asia for a major comprehensive visit. It is reported that Lukashenko will visit several countries and hold high-level talks to discuss large-scale cooperation projects in various fields that are significant to Belarus and have broad prospects. Every visit involves extensive preparatory work.
The report did not mention the specific countries visited, only stating: “Attendants to the president revealed that this trip will cover tens of thousands of kilometers, and the visiting plan includes three countries.”
Han Lu, deputy director of the Eurasian Research Institute at the China Institute of International Studies, said that Lukashenko's visit was a private affair, related to his youngest son who studied at Peking University.
In addition, Lukashenko's visit to China comes at a time when Ukraine is constantly pressuring Belarus. Some experts believe that, in the complex and ever-changing international situation, China is an important support for Belarus in seeking a way out of geopolitical risks.
On June 29, during a meeting with Chinese officials, Lukashenko said about the current state of Sino-Belarusian cooperation, "This is exactly what we are looking for." He cited the Sino-Belarusian Industrial Park as a model of successful cooperation between Belarus and China. According to him, most of the foreign investment in the park comes from Chinese companies.
Lukashenko said, “In all areas of economic development, Belarus is adopting advanced technologies from China. We are satisfied with the level of these technologies and the quality of the products.”
According to Telegram channel "Pul Pervogo" which has close relations with Belarus' presidential press service, the leaders of the two countries continued their exchange during a "traditional family banquet." This form exceeded the scope of diplomatic protocol and reflected the special trust between the two leaders.
On the 30th, Lukashenko visited Peking University and attended the graduation ceremony and degree conferment ceremony for the “Peking University-Belarus National University Undergraduate Dual Degree Program of 2026”. Lukashenko’s younger son, Nikolai, was also one of the graduates.
A biotechnology undergraduate program jointly established by Belarus National University and Peking University was launched in 2022. In July 2025, an agreement for a master's program of the same type was signed.
During a meeting with the leadership of Peking University, Lukashenko proposed to deepen educational cooperation between the two countries.
June 30th, Luca Schenkel visited Peking University. Bai Tongxi
According to the ‘Kiev Independent’, in recent months, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has claimed that Belarus is involved in the Russo-Ukraine conflict, and has repeatedly warned Belarus about this.
In its latest statement, Zelensky demanded that Belarus dismantle the signal relay stations along the border, as they are helping Russian drones to adjust their flight paths, thereby enabling them to target Ukrainian cities and infrastructure more accurately. He claimed that if Belarus does not take action within the specified period, Ukraine will attack the relevant facilities.
On June 24th, Zelenskyy stated that the equipment had ceased to function. At the same time, he claimed that the construction of military infrastructure along the Belarus-Ukraine border was “near completion,” and noted that these facilities had no other purpose beyond military use.
According to a comment published by RIA Novosti, it is crucial for Ukraine to involve Russia's allies directly in the conflict. This way, the pretext of "internationalizing the conflict" can be used to legitimize NATO's potential involvement.
It is worth noting that Lukašenka's visit to China did not start from the Belarusian capital Minsk, but rather from Moscow, the Russian capital.
Lukashenko and Putin's meeting was non-public. According to RIA Novosti, the meeting was described as "informal," but it addressed formal issues such as "attempts to provoke Belarusians."
Without a doubt, Belarusian leaders arrived in Beijing with a united position. Reuters reported this.
According to Xinhua News Agency, during Lukashenko's visit to China, the Chinese side emphasized its support for Belarus in maintaining national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. It also stressed its commitment to supporting Belarus on its path of development that is in line with its own national conditions. The Chinese side expressed its willingness to continue providing assistance to Belarus's development efforts within its capabilities.
According to RIA Novosti, although there are no direct statements regarding Ukraine, this statement represents China's support for Belarus. It is said that "this means any aggression against that country is an aggression against China's interests."
On the 29th local time, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that if Ukraine crosses the Belarusian border, Belarus will use all its capabilities to respond.
Chinese political commentator Zhou Chengyang believes that in the complex and changing international situation, China is an important reliance for Belarus to find a way out of geopolitical risks. The deep cooperation between the two countries has profound strategic significance and a practical cooperative approach.
He said: "Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Belarus has been caught in geopolitical risks and is now pushed towards the edge of war conflicts. Lukashenko has urgently visited Russia to obtain security guarantees. Visiting China is a attempt to seek external support and obtain a second layer of security."
Zhou Chengyang analyzed that although China does not promise to provide military protection to Belarus, as two countries that are all-weather comprehensive strategic partners, based on a high level of political mutual trust, they naturally provide each other with firm support on issues involving each other's core interests.
Russian Satellite News Agency
In addition to the direct flight from Moscow to Beijing, the news of Lukashenko's visit to China was announced only after his departure, which has also sparked speculation.
According to Russian media outlet Lenta.ru, Russian political scientist Sergei Malakhov said in an interview with the media that Lukashenko's visit was mainly to act as a mediator between Putin and other parties, with the bilateral cooperation between China and Belarus that was announced beforehand being secondary.
He believes that Lukashenko and Putin may have discussed in detail the coordinated actions for the new phase during their talks. Subsequently, the former flew to China to personally convey this information and discuss ‘the updated approach’ directly with the Chinese side.
Alexey Martnov, director of the International Research Institute of Emerging Countries in Russia, published an article on the Russian weekly magazine Expert, refuting the claim that Lukashenko's visit to China was to convey "secret" messages to Putin. He argued that this behavior violates the norms of relations between all countries and serves well the current information warfare framework against Russia and Belarus.
He pointed out that observers described this visit as an ‘emergency visit’, and the talks as ‘secret talks’, leading to various speculations. ‘However, all signs indicate that the visit is proceeding as planned, and the speculation surrounding this matter is unfounded.’
According to Martnov, given Lukashenko's relationship with Putin as if they were brothers, his visit to Russia may have been arranged quickly. However, his visit to China was coordinated months in advance, so it was impossible to make 'last-minute adjustments' just one day before the trip. 'Therefore, it is possible that the situation is completely the opposite—that is, Putin invited Lukashenko to visit Russia on the way to China.'
He believes that all inferences regarding secret negotiations between China, Russia, and Belarus are deliberately spread, with the aim of testing reactions to this false news.
The French newspaper Le Monde speculates that some experts believe that although Lukashenko wishes to strengthen cooperation with China, Belarus remains highly dependent on Russia in terms of economy, security, and politics. Therefore, Lukashenko's visit to China is more about seeking greater diplomatic autonomy between Russia and China, reducing the pressure from Russia, gaining some bargaining chips, and increasing the ability to negotiate with Russia. It does not aim to change Belarus's long-term dependence on Russia.
Actually, on June 4th of last year, when Lukashenko visited, the two heads of state also met in Zhongnanhai. Similar to this occasion, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not announce it in advance.
Han Lu, deputy director of the Eurasian Research Institute at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Beijing Daily that both visits by Lukashenko were private in nature and related to his youngest son, who studied at Peking University. This year, his youngest son graduated from Peking University.
On the other hand, Belarus' economic development has not been good since this year. The relationship between Belarus and Ukraine has also been tense recently, with Ukraine constantly provocative." Han Lu said that leaders from both countries will discuss relevant issues at their meeting.
"China and Belarus have maintained a high level of political mutual trust, standing as 'iron brothers' who support each other on the international stage. After establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership on a round-the-clock basis in 2022, relations between the two countries have entered a new era, with continuous, healthy, and stable development." Han Lu said that by 2025, bilateral trade volume will reach $8.86 billion, an increase of 5.5%, breaking through $8 billion for the third consecutive year. Belarus officially joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2024, and future cooperation between the two countries will become even closer.
