On November 3rd, local time, the voting for the U.S. mid-term elections officially began. Inside Elections maintained its forecast in the final assessment that the Democratic Party would gain 20 to 30 seats. The expansion of the battlefield assessment also deserves attention: at the beginning of this cycle, there were 64 districts in contention; by the last week before the election, this number increased to 82, with 55 of these districts held by Republicans. The Democrats only need to gain 3 seats net to regain control of the House of Representatives. The lower limit of the forecast for 20 to 30 seats is nearly seven times this threshold.
In other words, in the forecast framework, whether control of the House of Representatives will change is no longer the core suspense. Many American media reports suggest that the real focus today is on where the increase in Democratic seats will fall within this range, and whether Republicans can hold their ground in some districts where they won during Trump’s campaign but where the voting in the House is close, thereby minimizing the gains for Democrats.
Previously, Newsweek identified 10 key elections in the House of Representatives. These elections involve current members facing unstable re-election situations, candidates challenging their positions again, and constituencies with diverse voter demographics. The results may not only reveal which political party will control the House of Representatives, but also indicate how much majority advantage the winning party will ultimately have.
According to predictions by the decision-making headquarters, the Democrats have seized control of the U.S. House of Representatives. After four years as a minority party, they will completely turn the balance of power in the House of Representatives. CNN has also published a forecast on its front page indicating that the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives. As of now, the Republicans have lost 27 seats to the Democrats. The Democrats lead the Republicans with 227 seats in the House of Representatives, compared to the Republicans’ 135 seats.
2026 House Seats Prediction Website Screenshot
In 10 crucial elections, NC-1 is one of the few seats defended by current Democratic representatives, but it remains a seat where Republicans hope for a turnaround. Democratic Representative Don Davis faces off against Republican Laurie Buckout. The constituency where this election takes place was won by Trump by a margin of 11 percentage points. The Republican-controlled state legislature has redefined the electoral boundaries, making the district more favorable to Republicans. However, the results did not show Davis facing difficulties as expected. Media predicted that Davis would win with 49.4% of the votes, defeating Buckout’s 47.4%.
On the other hand, after Republican Representative Chuck Edwards resigned due to sexual harassment allegations, a Republican state representative entered the election race 85 days before the election, competing against the moderate Democratic farmer Jamie Ager for the seat in District 11. Many media outlets have predicted that this district will turn blue, making this the first prediction of a district’s election turning blue by the media in this cycle.
The election evaluation agency “Sabato’s Crystals” believes that Virginia’s 2nd District is a relatively “easy victory” for Democrats. In this district, former Democratic congresswoman and retired naval colonel Elaine Liu-Liu is seeking to reclaim her seat, facing a rematch with the Republican congresswoman Jane Keegan, who defeated her in 2022. Keegan was once a helicopter pilot and a nursing professional in geriatric care. Based on the current voting results, Liu-Liu seems to have a chance of achieving her goal.
In the more Republican-leaning first constituency, the Democratic Party also maintained a slight advantage over their rivals.
Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was re-elected with nearly 80% of the votes, becoming a federal congresswoman for the 14th Congressional District in New York State. This is her fifth time being re-elected.
Republican Congressman Mike Lawler is running for re-election in the Hudson Valley district. Democratic presidential candidate Harris won this district by a narrow margin in 2024. Lawler’s opponent is Democratic candidate Kate Conley. Condike pointed out that Lawler is one of the few Republican congressmen who have tried to retain their seats in districts where Democratic presidential candidates win. Many organizations have rated New York’s 17th district as a “tough contest”. When voting was nearly 40% complete, the vote percentages of both parties were close, with Conley leading by a slight margin.
Pennsylvania Republican congressmen face fierce re-election campaigns in Districts 1, 7, 8, and 10. Currently, the Democrats lead in all four districts.
Among them, District 7 and District 10 are the key areas of contention this time. Republican Ryan Mackenzie won the seat in District 7 from the Democrats by about 4,000 votes in 2024, but this year he faces the risk of being defeated by the Democratic candidate Bob Brooks.
The election campaign in District 10 is widely regarded as one of the most critical battles in this mid-term election. Former television news anchor Jennil Stelson once again challenges Republican congressman Scott Perry. For her, this is also a matter of “grudge”: in 2024, Perry defeated Stelson by about 5,100 votes.
The Democratic Party regards Districts 1 and 3 in Wisconsin as contested seats. In both districts, Republican incumbent Bryan Stearle and Derek Van Oden are seeking re-election. Of particular interest is Van Oden, a former Navy SEAL who defeated Democrat Rebecca Cook by 2.7 percentage points in 2024. The two will face off again in western Wisconsin, with the media widely predicting that Cook will win this rematch.
In 2024, Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District supported Trump by a margin of 4.5 percentage points, while Republican Congressman Zach Nunn won the election by a margin of 3.9 percentage points. Nunn is seeking a third term in office. However, Democratic state senator Sarah Troy Garlick, with a vote share of 54.6%, was labeled as “likely winner” by several media outlets, marking a formal shift towards the Democrats in that district.
Meanwhile, in Iowa's 1st and 2nd districts, when the voting was nearing completion, the results showed a Democratic victory, with vote percentages of 53.5% and 49.5%, respectively.
Trump won the 8th district in Colorado in the 2024 elections, but Republican Congressman Gab Esper's victory had a margin of less than one percentage point. Therefore, this district has received widespread attention from forecasting agencies and media. Currently, media such as CNN have predicted that the winner will be the Democratic candidate Manny Luetner.
Colorado’s Districts 4 and 5 also face the risk of turning blue. It is worth noting that District 4 has been predicted by several organizations to be “more pro-Republican.”
Republican Congressman Juan Sicommani is competing with Democrat Joanna Mendozza in this closely contested 6th district. However, according to media predictions, this district is currently facing a blue-crisis situation, just like the 1st and 2nd districts.
November 3rd evening, the headquarters of the Democratic Party for the election of Representatives in Washington D.C. staged a political stage play.
The Democratic leader of the House of Representatives, Hakim Jeffries, who is expected to become the next Speaker of the House and the first black Speaker in its history, spoke enthusiastically, declaring his intention to “hold those responsible for unprecedented corruption accountable.” He also repeatedly uttered slogans such as “This is a transformative election,” “Needs a dramatic change,” “America has returned,” and “Today begins a great American renaissance.”
At the end of this carnival, he said with a sense of fulfillment, "This is not a moment for parties; this is a moment of patriotism. It's a moment of red, white, and blue—because tonight, the United States has won!"
However, it’s not the first time that American politicians have talked about ‘change’. After the chaotic elections, the problems remain unsolved, which is more likely to happen.
