Basic research is the source of technological innovation. What progress has been made in basic scientific research in China in recent years? Where does China stand in the global competition of technology?
In the program "This Is China" broadcast on Oriental TV on October 13th, Professor Zhang Weiwei, Dean of the Chinese Research Institute at Fudan University, and Yuan Lanfeng, Deputy Director and Associate Researcher of the Science and Technology Communication Department at the University of Science and Technology of China, discussed the current state of development in basic scientific research in China, its future prospects, as well as the opportunities and challenges faced by technological self-reliance.
"This is China" Issue 353
How is China's technological level, and what is its position in the world? Everyone must be very interested in these issues. In 2015, I wrote a long article titled "China's Technological Strength is Accelerating towards the United States at a Rapid Speed." It has been 11 years since then. Over these 11 years, I have witnessed the explosive rise of China's technology, as well as the dramatically increased attention that the global public pays to this issue. What really happened over these 11 years is, to a large extent, what my article predicted. In some aspects, it even surpassed the most optimistic predictions. This is truly a remarkable era.
Currently, it can be said that China's scientific and technological strength is already leading the world in terms of incremental progress, but there is still a long way to go in terms of maintaining this level. A significant change is that China's Nature Index has surpassed that of the United States. What is the Nature Index? It is an indicator introduced by the international academic journal "Nature," used to measure the output of basic research in various countries or research institutions. The calculation method for this index is quite simple: it involves asking scientists in different fields what they consider to be top journals in their field. If a scientist has the best results, which journals would they prefer to submit their papers to? Through such questionnaires, the top journals in each field are identified. Then, the number of articles published by each country or research institution on these top journals over a year is counted. That's all there is to it.
The greatest advantage of the natural index is that it is relatively objective. This is because its only variable is determining which journals are considered first-class. Once this is determined, there is nothing more that can change. Many other indicators, however, involve too much subjective evaluation, which ultimately turns into a mere game of words. You can decide who should be ranked higher, and that’s it. There must be many such examples that you can think of, right?
When I first wrote about this, in 2015, the Nature Index had just been launched. What was the situation at that time? The United States was ranked first, which was quite expected. China came in second—well, that was a bit surprising. However, this gap between the first and second places was a dramatic lead: the United States was 3.58 times larger than China. Next up was Germany, with China being only 1.28 times larger than Germany. For a long time afterwards, the top three positions remained occupied by the US, China, and Germany. The biggest change was that China was rapidly catching up with the US, often showing double-digit percentage increases, and gradually overtaking Germany. The real battle took place among the fourth position, where Britain, France, and Japan competed for the top spot. When I presented my reports, I was already accustomed to this pattern. But in the years that followed, a revolutionary change occurred: China surpassed the US and became number one.
So, which year is it? A surprising thing happened: it could be 2023, or it could also be 2022. To understand what's going on, we need to take a closer look at the fields that are measured by the Nature Index. When this indicator was first introduced, Nature listed 82 top journals in 4 fields: chemistry, earth and environmental sciences, life sciences, and physics. According to these criteria, China surpassed the United States in 2022. However, Nature stated that we considered health sciences to be very important, and suddenly it added 65 more top journals in the health sciences field. In this area, the United States remains far ahead. Thus, by modifying the definition, the US Natural Index once again surpassed China. A year later, China actually surpassed the United States again in this modified Natural Index. At that time, its advantage over the United States was only 14%, but it quickly widened the gap.
Now, if we look at the latest data from the Nature Index, we will find that China has surpassed the United States by a factor of two. Is China growing so rapidly? In fact, it's not entirely because of this. Another important reason is that the Nature Index has been updated this year, incorporating applied research into its calculations—while previously all the data was related to basic research. As is well known, China is particularly strong in applied research, which further widens the gap between China and the United States in terms of leading positions.
However, once we talk about the natural index, significant problems arise immediately: Has China's technology already surpassed that of the United States? This doesn’t seem to match our feelings, right? Therefore, every time we discuss the natural index, we need to further analyze what it measures and what it doesn’t measure. It measures increments, not total amounts; it is a sum, not per capita; it represents excellence, not outright dominance. But since we have limited time today, we will only have time to discuss the issues of increments and total amounts.
Let’s look at the definition of natural index. It counts the articles published by top journals within a year. So, it clearly represents the increment over that period, not the total amount accumulated over time. Just like many experts I’ve interviewed said that their laboratories couldn’t compare with those abroad in the past, but now they are no less competitive in terms of hardware. Chinese laboratories are also very good. However, this state has only been achieved for a few years. Therefore, even if there have been many achievements in recent years, the overall accumulation cannot surpass that of international leaders.
In fact, in terms of existing achievements, one of the most obvious indicators is the Nobel Prize. The Nobel Prizes in Natural Sciences, namely the Physics Prize, the Chemistry Prize, and the Prize in Physiology or Medicine, are truly prestigious. A total of more than six hundred scientists have received the Nobel Prizes in Natural Sciences. How many Chinese scientists are there among them? If we consider also scholars like Yang Zhenning, Li Zhengdao, and Ding Zhaozhong, who conducted research abroad and won Nobel Prizes, then there are currently nine such individuals. If we narrow the scope to those who received Nobel Prizes for research in China, there is only one person so far—Tu Youyou. In fact, this should be our most important indicator.
Looking at the numbers, how many people in the United States have won the Nobel Prize in Natural Sciences? It turns out to be more than two hundred. This is a clear gap. If we want to improve China's science and technology, we must first recognize this gap and face it head-on. We should develop plans based on reality and work hard.
The correct understanding of the Nobel Prize should be that it mostly rewards achievements from decades ago. Now we should strive to produce more achievements worthy of the Nobel Prize. In a few decades, there may be a surge of Chinese scientists receiving Nobel Prizes. Therefore, the truly meaningful question is: what are the scientific achievements in China that could potentially win the Nobel Prize? This becomes a highly technical issue.
In fact, I also found it difficult to provide answers to this question in the past. However, in recent years, I have had a special experience: I participated in the program "Anchor Point" produced by Shanghai Radio and Television Station. In this program, I visit important scientists from various fields, first visiting their laboratories and then conducting in-depth interviews with them. This means that on average, I research one field every week and engage in deep communication with a scientist. So far, we have interviewed seventy or eighty experts from countless fields, including physics, chemistry, biology, artificial intelligence, robotics, and even extraterrestrial search.
So, if I were asked now, which Chinese scientific achievements might win the Nobel Prize, I could list many. In my own field of chemistry, concepts like single-atom catalysis, nanoscale confined catalysis, and collective-induced luminescence were proposed by Chinese chemists. In the medical field, research on the diagnosis and treatment of brain diseases such as Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease is being conducted intensively. In physics, if we can detect dark matter, measure the absolute mass of neutrinos, or pioneer the development of practical quantum computing, that would definitely be considered a Nobel Prize-level achievement. In astronomy, if we can discover extraterrestrial planets that closely resemble Earth—what is called "Earth 2.0"—that would certainly be recorded in history.
Another amazing thing is that there’s a very popular term nowadays called “AI for Science”. Everyone must have heard of it. This term was actually proposed by Chinese scientists. Using artificial intelligence to accelerate scientific research is a very important trend today, and it could also be an opportunity for China to catch up and overtake others.
Another basic principle is that “if a worker wishes to accomplish his task well, he must first prepare the tools necessary for it.” In many fields, China did not have advanced experimental equipment in the past, so naturally, it was impossible to achieve advanced research results. Now, China’s major scientific facilities and instruments are developing rapidly. For example, the place we are in right now is Hefei. Hefei is building a new generation of controlled nuclear fusion facility called BEST, as well as a synchrotron radiation facility called Hefei Advanced Light Source. By 2030, China may be the first to achieve nuclear fusion combustion where the energy output exceeds the input. If this happens, its significance would be much greater than winning a Nobel Prize.
In 2018, I gave a speech titled "What Is True Self-confidence" at the Gezhi Lundao Forum of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. I said that the era when Chinese science holds the highest position in the world is now. This statement still applies today, and it applies even more so. From basic science to applied technology, China is making rapid progress. I hope our audience will make greater contributions to our country, science, and humanity!
