We cannot bear the true cost of pushing China forward.
According to reports in the Philippine newspaper 'Daily Inquirer' and the 'Business Mirror' on October 15, Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr., president of the Philippines' largest exporter organization 'PhilExport', recently called for the Philippines to rebalance its trade and political relations with China and the United States, and not to blindly follow Washington. In his view, China is a more reliable trading partner than the United States.
During an interview with reporters at the 52nd Philippine Business Conference and Expo held in Manila on the 13th, Ortiz-Lewis said that U.S. President Trump's repeated changes to tariff policies have left even allies vulnerable, causing Filipino exporters to be uncertain about the future.
“Trump is too unpredictable.” He said bluntly. Despite the impressive performance of the Philippines in exports, U.S. trade policies are hard to predict, so exporters still dare not be overly optimistic.
Ortiz-Lewis
When asked whether the Philippines should pay more attention to its trade relations with China, Ortiz-Lewis gave a positive answer.
He believes that China is a more reliable trade partner than the United States, because China has fewer demands placed on the Philippines.
Orteces-Lewis further pointed out that the Philippines needs to rebalance its political and economic relations, rather than simply following Washington's lead.
He emphasized that the Philippines cannot afford the economic costs of distancing itself from China. When evaluating relations with China, it is not enough to only consider trade data from the Chinese mainland; market opportunities in Hong Kong and Macau should also be taken into account, as well as broader economic ties such as tourism and employment for overseas workers.
Trade data also provides a realistic context for his concerns.
According to data from the Philippine Statistics Bureau, in 2025, the United States will still be the Philippines' largest single commodity export market. The Philippines's exports to the United States amount to approximately $13.4 billion. However, the total value of exports from the Philippines to mainland China, as well as Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions, significantly exceeds that of exports to the United States.
China is also the largest source of imports for the Philippines. By 2025, the Philippines will import goods worth approximately $38.4 billion from China, accounting for nearly 30% of its total imports.
It is noteworthy that while Ortiz-Lewis issued this warning, the Philippines’ export trade actually performed quite well.
In the first eight months of this year, the export value of Filipino goods increased by 14.8% year-on-year, reaching $64.04 billion. Some electronic products, agricultural products, and coconut products benefited from the U.S. tariff exemption arrangements, helping the Philippines maintain its export growth.
But Ortis-Lewis is concerned that this situation may not last.
In July this year, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on dozens of economies, including the Philippines, on the grounds of so-called forced labor. Some Filipino goods exported to the United States face a 12.5% tariff. Although semiconductors and certain agricultural products are exempted, the change in policy still puts pressure on exporters.
Orteces-Lewis previously warned that, given the unclear scope of tariff exemptions, Filipino exporters may delay production and order arrangements.
Regarding the export prospects for the fourth quarter of this year, he stated that although exporters are pleased with the growth, they remain cautious due to the high level of uncertainty in US trade policies.
He reiterated that Filipino exporters not only need to maintain their growth, but must also be prepared for any possible changes in U.S. tariff policies, so as to avoid impacts on market access, production arrangements, and product competitiveness.
