With less than three weeks left until the U.S. midterm elections, the American blue-collar workers who helped Trump win the presidential election seem to be re-evaluating their political choices.
According to a report by Reuters on October 14th, in Ohio, a traditional industrial state in the United States, rising prices, the war with Iran, and Trump's aggressive rhetoric have caused some of the working-class voters who once supported him to become disheartened. Democrats and union leaders hope to take this opportunity to regain the blue-collar votes that flowed into the Republican Party ten years ago.
The 48-year-old steel transporter Paul Lindberg is one of them. In 2016, he supported Trump, in 2020 he switched to Biden, and in 2024 he chose Trump again. Now, facing the upcoming mid-term elections, he is unable to decide who he will support.
"I am at a crossroads, unsure of which direction to take." Lin Goerdel told Reuters, citing continued rising food and fuel prices, as well as Trump's aggressive rhetoric, in contributing to his doubts about the former president he once supported.
"Old God knows, we didn't vote for this initially." He complained when talking about inflation.
Ohio's political landscape precisely reflects Trump's influence on the American working class over the past decade.
Before 2016, this state was long considered an important swing state in the U.S. presidential elections. However, Trump won the support of a large number of traditional Democratic worker voters by promising to revive manufacturing and protect jobs. As a result, Ohio gradually became a solid stronghold for the Republican Party.
Now, this situation may be softening.
According to local election data cited by Reuters, in the county of Trumbull, where there are many blue-collar jobs, during the first three days after early voting began, 1,224 people registered as Democrats, 559 as Republicans, and 453 had unknown party affiliations. Although these numbers cannot directly predict the election outcome, they indicate a high level of enthusiasm among Democratic voters in this area.
Therefore, two important elections in Ohio have attracted a great deal of attention. Republican incumbent Senator Jon Frost is facing challenges from former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, while the gubernatorial election sees Republican Vivek Ramaswami competing against Democrat Amy Akhton.
According to the Ohio Capital Journal, a poll released by Marist College at the end of September showed that Brown led Hirsted by 8 percentage points, and Acton led Ramaswamy by 6 percentage points. However, there are differences in the results of these polls, so the election outcome remains uncertain.
Trump himself has also begun to support Republican candidates. On Monday, he traveled to Youngstown, Ohio, where he attended campaign events alongside Hirst and Ramaswami, hoping to reignite the voting enthusiasm among Republicans.
However, for local workers, the most immediate issue remains economic.
According to data reported by Reuters, citing the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of manufacturing jobs in the Youngstown-Warren area of Ohio has decreased from about 50,000 in 1990 to about 20,000 in 2026. Although there has been some new manufacturing investment in the area in recent years, the impact of the decline in the traditional steel and automotive industries remains.
American Federation of Steel Workers official Jose Arroyo pointed out that Trump is adept at using workers' dissatisfaction over factory closures, the loss of pensions, and livelihood losses, but he focuses too much on social and cultural issues, lacking policies that truly improve the lives of workers.
Ohio's Speaker of the House and Senate Tim Geraghty criticized that Trump's second term has weakened the National Labor Relations Board's ability to function, making it more difficult for trade unions and workers to protect their rights.
However, not all blue-collar voters have lost confidence in Trump.
67-year-old retired factory worker Chuck Burns tells Reuters that he agrees with Trump's policy on restricting illegal immigration, and is also pleased with the growth of his retirement savings account. Small business owners also say, despite rising fuel costs, religious and social values are more important to them than gasoline prices.
This also means that dissatisfaction with the economy does not necessarily translate into support for the Democrats.
According to a report by National Public Radio (NPR), Democratic candidate Brown is trying to re-gain worker votes through union organizations. In 2016, Trump won the votes of 54% of union households in Ohio, while Democratic candidate Hillary received only 41%.
As the midterm elections approach, the competition in Ohio has transcended the realm of local politics. Whether the Republican Party can continue to hold this traditional industrial state will impact the battle for congressional control and also test the appeal of the blue-collar voter alliance that Trump established ten years ago, as they progress past half of his second term.
