In 2016, the UK held a massive referendum on leaving the EU, and 51.9% of British voters voted in favor of leaving the EU. In 2020, the UK officially withdrew from the EU. However, ten years after the referendum, both Prime Minister’s statements and opinion polls show that Britons are regretting their decision.
Since the end of September, British Prime Minister Barness has repeatedly stated in public that Britain needs to consider various options for establishing long-term relations with the European Union, including the possibility of rejoining it. On October 12 local time, Barness said during a speech in the British House of Commons that there would be "serious dialogue" regarding Britain's future position in Europe.
Although Bernanham has not explicitly stated his intention to rejoin the EU, nor has he included this goal in the manifesto of the British Labour Party, it is widely believed that his statement indicates that the British government intends to ‘reverse’ its decision to leave the EU.
Pro-EU activists in London, UK. Visual China.
Due to the chaos that surrounded the process of Brexit in the UK, the impact of Brexit on the UK remains a "dirty bill." However, according to The Guardian, analysts generally agree that Brexit has indeed hindered the UK's economic development. The economic losses caused by leaving the EU single market could amount to 6% to 8% of the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Bernam's remarks were seen as the UK Prime Minister's first public acknowledgment that Brexit was a failure. British media such as The Guardian analyzed that, at a time when the UK urgently needs to promote economic growth and as relations between the EU and the United States deteriorate, there seems to be sufficient reason for the UK and the EU to move closer again. However, Brexit cannot simply be 'undone'. If the UK wishes to rejoin the EU, there are many obstacles to overcome, and whether the UK and the EU can resolve their long-standing differences remains uncertain.
On September 29th, Burnham delivered a speech at the British Labour Party's annual conference. Speaking about UK-EU relations, Burnham said, "My view is very clear. I will speak frankly and directly: Brexit is more harmful than beneficial for the UK. So the question is, how should we respond?" He stated that he would use the upcoming UK-EU summit to discuss various options for the long-term relationship between the UK and the EU.
One day later, Burnham said in an interview with the BBC that “the current situation is not good enough,” and that the UK needs to consider various options for its future relationship with the EU, including rejoining the EU. He believed that the UK should explore different models for establishing long-term relationships with the EU, and determine which model is the best way forward.
In order to ‘boost momentum’ for the possibility of rejoining the EU, Bernham even hyped up the ‘Russian threat’, claiming that Russia had ‘clearly interfered’ in the UK’s Brexit referendum. This was the first time a British Prime Minister publicly claimed that Russia had intervened in the Brexit referendum. He stated, ‘This helps German and French voters understand that some political turmoil was provoked by our adversaries, namely Russia.’
The Guardian points out that this stance is completely different from that of previous Conservative governments, which have always stated that there is no evidence indicating that Russia “interfered” with the Brexit referendum.
On October 12th, Bernam addressed the British House of Commons, once again emphasizing that the current relations between the UK and the EU are 'not good enough', and promised to engage in 'serious dialogue' regarding the UK's future role in Europe. He regarded the UK-EU summit to be held in Brussels, Belgium next month, as a 'first step' towards potential re-entry of the UK into the EU.
He warned that the ‘European Manufacturing’ agenda promoted by the EU poses a risk to Britain’s manufacturing industry.
On October 12th, local time, British Prime Minister Bernham delivered a speech in the British Parliament.
But Burnham also made it clear that he would not violate the “red line” in the British Labour Party’s campaign manifesto, which promises not to return to the EU single market, establish a customs union, or allow free movement of people. However, he did not rule out the possibility of issuing a new manifesto, in which rejoining the EU could be included.
Bernam told British lawmakers that it is expected that the UK will reach agreements with the EU on food, energy trade, and immigration issues at next month's summit. He stated that by 2040, these agreements could generate an annual benefit of up to 10 billion pounds for the British economy.
He said, “At present, due to the lack of a seal or paperwork, the entire truckload of agricultural products may be destroyed. Fresh meat and fish may go bad during transportation, resulting in a large number of export goods being discarded. Our most important food export product, Scottish salmon, faces a 100% paperwork inspection at the border, which causes us a loss of about 100 million pounds.”
In addition, the UK seeks to reach an energy trading agreement with the EU in order to reduce the energy costs for British families and businesses. The British government also hopes to re-establish connections with EU police and security agencies, enhancing information sharing and assisting in combating smuggling gangs. Bernam said that if the UK wants to achieve its goals, it must be “open-minded” when establishing new relations with the EU.
A survey conducted by YouGov on October 8 showed that if Britain holds a second referendum, 52% of Britons would vote in favor of joining the EU, while 27% would vote against returning to the EU. Among the British voters who voted for Brexit in 2016, more than 20% changed their stance.
Brexit has the greatest impact on the UK in economic terms. The BBC pointed out that before the UK decided to leave the EU, trade between the UK and the European continent was on the rise. However, after Brexit officially took effect in 2020, trade between the UK and Europe plummeted. Official data shows that compared to 2019, exports from the UK to the EU decreased by 14% in 2025, and imports decreased by 10%.
The British think tank National Economic and Social Research Institute (NIESR) estimates that Britain’s actual exports to the EU are 16.9% lower than expected, based on positive trends before 2016. Imports from the EU have also been 16.1% lower than expected. Calculations by the European Reform Center of the think tank show that Brexit has resulted in a 16% reduction in Britain’s exports of goods to the EU and a 14% reduction in imports.
Changes in UK exports before and after Brexit
British scholars generally believe that Brexit has affected the UK’s economic growth, causing the country to fail to maintain the positive economic development trajectory it had before 2016. The loss is estimated to be between 3% and 8%. Nick Bloom, an expert at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States, pointed out that about half of this loss is due to the decline in UK-EU trade, while the other half is due to the chaotic Brexit process in the UK.
Experts from the Bank of England also analyzed the impact of Brexit on the UK economy from a corporate perspective. The survey, which covered thousands of companies, showed that the uncertainty caused by Brexit had a profound effect on corporate decision-making. If the UK had not chosen to leave the EU, the annual growth rate of the UK economy over the past decade might have been 0.6 percentage points higher than it is now.
However, the UK has maintained a strong performance in the service sector. Over the past decade, UK exports of services to the EU have increased by 57%, mainly due to the strong growth in industries such as accounting, legal services, and consulting. This is much better than the pessimistic expectations during the Brexit referendum. However, many analysts believe that if there had been no Brexit, the development of the UK’s service sector could have been even stronger.
There are also some "advantages" of leaving the EU, such as allowing the UK to reach trade agreements separately with economies outside the EU. The UK has already established a free trade agreement with India and has signed a customs agreement with the United States. The British government estimates that these agreements will only slightly boost the economy in the next few decades, with a potential increase of just a few percentage points.
However, this ‘benefit’ is not one-way; it also applies to the EU. The EU and the Southern Common Market have reached a free trade agreement. Once this agreement is fully implemented, EU cars will be able to enter Brazil, the world’s sixth-largest market, with zero tariffs, while the UK currently faces 35% tariffs.
