American voters will decide on Congress’ control during the remaining two years of President Trump’s term in office in the mid-term elections on November 3rd. Additionally, they will elect dozens of governors and thousands of state-level officials.
According to AFP report on October 5th, there are multiple contradictions behind this election campaign, and the situation is particularly tense: economic anxieties, foreign wars, immigration disputes, corruption issues—along with people's unease about the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence—have become the five major topics that will influence this mid-term election.
Meanwhile, both parties in the United States have spent heavily on this election, with substantial advertising investments setting new records once again.
Living costs remain the top issue.
In August, the inflation rate in the United States was 3.4%. However, beyond this core data, voters are truly experiencing an increase in the costs of gasoline, housing, electricity, food groceries, and borrowing costs, which pose political challenges.
Pew Research asked open-ended questions about what voters most want Congress candidates to discuss. 29% of respondents spontaneously mentioned economic concerns, which was more than three times the proportion for any other topic.
Another survey conducted by the Joseph Reni Public Policy Center shows that 57% of respondents listed food, gasoline, or utilities as their top three concerns.
Trump's tariff policy has directly been involved in this debate. Opponents accuse tariffs of driving up prices, while the government argues that tariffs can protect domestic industries and increase fiscal revenue.
A war with foreign countries has turned into a domestic issue regarding people's livelihoods in the United States. The conflict between the US and Iran that began in February has pushed up energy prices, and it is highly unpopular among American citizens.
According to a September poll by Emerson, Iran war is considered the most important issue among all the surveyed topics. A joint survey conducted by Reuters and Ipsos showed that only 34% of the population approves of Trump’s handling of this conflict.
Candidates from the Republican Party in competitive districts call for an end to the conflict. Four Republican senators stood with Democrats during the September vote, trying to limit the president’s war powers.
Anti-immigration has been Trump's signature political advantage, but the situation is becoming more complex.
President Trump promised to deport large numbers of illegal immigrants when he returned to the White House, but the tough measures taken by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other law enforcement agencies have caused controversy, weakening his support among voters.
According to Reuters and Ipsos polling, 55% of respondents do not agree with Trump's immigration policies. The Marist Institute's survey found that regarding immigration issues, voter trust in both parties is roughly equal—this difference is particularly noticeable compared to the clear advantage the Republican Party has on this issue in 2024.
The shift in attitude among Latino voters is particularly noteworthy. A survey of a highly competitive congressional district shows that 62% of Latino voters do not approve of the government's policies regarding expulsion and immigration enforcement.
Trump himself is the topic of discussion, including how he exercises his presidential powers.
Trump explicitly called on voters to vote as if he were present on the ballot himself. To some extent, this election has become a referendum on his performance during his second term in office.
Pew survey shows that among issues of public concern, "government moral integrity" ranks second, after economics, with 9% of voters mentioning it.
A poll conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst shows that 97% of Americans believe there is at least some degree of corruption within the federal government. Additionally, 66% of respondents said they do not trust or have no faith that Trump will not use his presidential powers to benefit his family’s businesses.
The Democrats promised that if they win the power to issue congressional subpoenas, they will investigate the business dealings of the Trump family; while the Republicans have characterized most of these accusations as biased attacks.
Artificial intelligence has stepped out of the laboratory and onto the political stage.
Voters are concerned about job losses, security risks, and regulatory issues. At the same time, they are paying more attention to the large data centers that are necessary for the operation of artificial intelligence.
A Pew survey shows that nearly half of Americans are very concerned about the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy. 50% of respondents believe that data centers will likely increase household electricity costs, and 54% think that they will harm the environment.
In Emerson’s September poll, the importance of artificial intelligence regulation ranked surprisingly high, second only to immigration and oil prices. The issue of data centers has a low national support rate, but it has become a key campaign issue in states like Ohio, where local communities are engaged in intense debates regarding electricity, water resources, and construction projects.
Even during the last session before the elections, Congress debated who should bear the cost of electricity generated by data centers. This proves that by 2026, even server rooms have become political instruments.
Data shows that the estimated total investment for campaign ads in the United States during the 2025-2026 election cycle will be approximately $12 billion.
Advertising monitoring agency AdImpact predicts that the total advertising expenditure for both parties in this election will reach $11.6 billion, setting a new record for mid-term elections in 2022, which was $8.9 billion. This figure is even higher than that during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle.
Kaneitik Political Research Institute's latest estimate is slightly higher, reaching $11.96 billion, with an estimated range between $11.5 billion and $12.5 billion.
AdImpact stated that the advertising expenditure for the California governor’s primary elections alone amounted to $330 million. These primary elections, which determine the official candidates in November, have become the most expensive governor’s primary elections in history.
And this is only the preliminary stage of this election cycle.
In this mid-term election, the Democrats need to gain a net of 3 seats based on the results of the 2024 elections in order to take control of the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the Republicans have a 53-47 seat advantage. The Democrats need to gain a net of 4 seats to take control of the Senate. If the votes are tied, Vice President Williams will have the power to break the tie.
