According to Bloomberg's report on October 5th, senior officials from the United States and India indicated that negotiations on the trade agreement have reached a deadlock, and it is difficult for both parties to reach an agreement.
Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on the 5th that trade negotiations between India and the United States have reached a ‘stalemate’, and it will be difficult to make further compromises. Previously, US Trade Representative Jamie Johnson Greer stated on the 2nd that the trade agreement was in its final stages, but that it ‘was not about to be reached’.
Both parties reached a provisional agreement earlier this year, and negotiations have continued since then. Indian officials have been seeking guarantees from the United States that India would receive more favorable tariff rates compared to other trading partners, and that there would be no additional punitive measures after the trade agreement is signed.
Sitaraman said at the Munich security conference that trade negotiations have been very difficult and strict. "We believe that both sides have fallen into a deadlock. At this stage, making concessions or demanding concessions from the other side could become extremely difficult."
She said, “Perhaps if there is still room for maneuvering on both sides, then both parties will strive for it.”
Due to new legislation introduced by the United States, which gives U.S. President Trump the power to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Russian oil and gas buyers, negotiations between the two sides have become more complex.
India is an important energy importer for Russia. India has warned that such measures could harm bilateral relations between India and the United States and disrupt the global energy market.
Over the past 18 months, relations between India and the United States have been under pressure. Trump previously imposed punitive tariffs on India for India’s purchase of Russian oil, but later revoked those tariffs.
Trump has also claimed several times that he helped facilitate a cease-fire during the brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025. However, New Delhi has always refused to accept Trump’s statements regarding these events.
Last week, Trump had his first conversation with Indian Prime Minister Modi since June. The two discussed trade and energy issues, as well as defense and critical minerals matters.
Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal also held talks with Grier during the G20 Trade Ministers' Meeting held in Milwaukee, USA last week.
Grill said on the 2nd that officials from both countries are working hard to resolve the differences between the two sides.
Grill said, “I would describe the current situation as being in the final stage.” He added that both parties have identified “the scope of issues that remain unresolved,” and are currently “working hard to resolve these problems.”
According to Teneo's South Asia advisor, Ajeet Chaturvedi of CNBC, "Looking at the current situation, the complementary nature of trade between the two countries may have reached its limit."
He said: “At present, it seems that neither side can meet the other’s demands, and it is not possible to ‘seek common ground while preserving differences’ and simply sign an agreement without addressing the differences.”
