For some countries, it seems that a "fast track" is emerging on the path toward joining the European Union.
On September 27 local time, POLITICO EU reported exclusively that the European Union is considering developing specific "accession roadmaps" for Montenegro, Ukraine, Moldova, and Albania, aiming to accelerate this process that has been ongoing for decades, while other candidate countries lag behind.
Two senior EU Commission officials involved in the development of the plan revealed that the roadmap will outline specific reform priorities and timelines for the four countries, and set approximate dates for completing the key stages of the accession negotiations.
According to reports, this will be the first time the EU has considered providing clearer pathways to membership for these countries that are considered ‘closest to joining the EU’. As long as these countries continue with the necessary reforms, they will receive clearer expectations regarding the final completion of negotiations. The roadmap will also specify when each set of reforms, or so-called ‘negotiation chapters’, will be completed. It will also impose corresponding requirements on existing EU member states, as it is ultimately necessary for all member states to agree in order for a candidate country to proceed with the membership process.
After the news was released, this list itself is quite interesting to ponder.
Since among the EU’s candidate countries, there are those that have been waiting for a long time—even longer than Ukraine and Moldova—yet they have not received the same treatment as this ‘roadmap’. POLITICO EU explicitly states that the authorities of North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo will not receive such roadmaps. Georgia, Turkey, and Serbia are also not on the list. The report quotes EU officials as saying that the applications from these candidate countries have been stalled due to what they call ‘regressions in the areas of democracy and justice’.
Brussels, Belgium, Headquarters of the European Commission. IC Photo
From the perspective of the negotiation progress, the EU indeed has reasons to prioritize Montenegro and Albania.
According to data released by the European Union on July 14, the EU held four meetings for Ukraine, Montenegro, Moldova, and Albania respectively. Ukraine and Moldova have started new negotiations, while Montenegro and Albania continue to temporarily suspend specific negotiations.
Among them, Montenegro has opened all 33 negotiation chapters. As of July 14, 18 of these chapters have been temporarily closed (i.e., they have passed phase-by-phase reviews). Albania has also opened all 33 negotiation chapters, and temporarily closed three chapters related to science and research, education and culture, and foreign relations in July.
In the 2025 expansion report, the European Commission also stated that the expansion continues to follow the principle of "based on reform outcomes." The speed of reforms in candidate countries in areas such as "democracy, rule of law, and fundamental rights" will directly affect their pace of joining the union. The report also specifically mentioned Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova, which have made "significant progress" over the past year.
However, the situation in Ukraine and Moldova is obviously not exactly the same.
Ukraine applied to join the EU in February 2022, gained candidate country status in June 2022, and officially started accession negotiations in 2024. However, the first negotiation phase only began in June this year. Moldova also applied in 2022, gained candidate country status in the same year, and started negotiations in 2024.
That is to say, if we only consider the “waiting time”, they will never reach the front. However, the EU now clearly does not prioritize people based on who applies first.
In June this year, European Council President Costa announced that EU member states agreed to initiate the first chapter of negotiations on Ukraine and Moldova's accession to the EU. He directly stated that "expansion is a strategic choice," and that expanding the EU would help strengthen peace, security, and prosperity on the European continent.
European Commission Chairperson Ursula von der Leyen also emphasized during her ‘State of the Union Address’ this month that in a ‘more dangerous and fragmented’ world, European security depends on the stability of neighboring regions. She said that the expansion of the EU will still be based on ‘results’, but the EU will provide support to candidate countries.
Why are Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, and Albania, these two groups of “new and old candidate countries”, now included in the same “priority list”?
It is noteworthy that EU documents have begun using expressions like ‘geopolitical necessity’. The European Commission’s document on the enlargement policy states that enlargement has become a ‘political and geo-strategic necessity’; however, at the same time, candidate countries still need to undergo rigorous procedures based on reform outcomes.
These two statements together constitute the contradiction in the current EU expansion policy: geopolitical considerations require the EU to “act quickly,” while traditional membership rules demand a “slow approach.”
Now, the EU is considering a third option.
POLITICO EU revealed that the European Union is simultaneously reforming its "pre-accession policy," aiming to gradually give candidate countries more EU economic benefits and opportunities to participate in joint projects before they officially join. Alexander Adam, senior advisor to Vodderlein, is responsible for evaluating this policy. The related evaluation plan was submitted to the European Union's top levels on October 6.
EU Commissioner Marta Cos, responsible for enlargement affairs, has previously proposed the concept of “gradual integration”. In early September, she stated that 2026 had become a “record year” for progress in EU expansion, and some candidate countries might complete negotiations before the end of the 2020s. She also acknowledged that the EU needs to address the contradiction between “geopolitical necessities” and “result-based membership principles”.
Even after candidate countries become full members, the EU is also considering adding "backstop mechanisms." POLITICO EU reports that Vondel and Kos are planning to introduce a series of institutional adjustments, including emergency safeguards, as well as setting a transition period after new member states join, during which they will be restricted from enjoying certain member-state rights, in order to prevent new members from undermining the EU’s key policies or violating its accession commitments.
The report indicates that some EU member states remain quite cautious about admitting new members. For example, Hungary has become a "problem child" in the eyes of the EU in recent years. It uses its veto power to undermine sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine, causing concern among other members: if a new member also uses its veto power in the future, the EU may face increased risks of decision-making paralysis.
According to EU rules, the addition of new members requires unanimous agreement from existing member states. Therefore, the emergence of this 'four-country roadmap' does not mean that the four countries are about to join the EU.
Other countries, contrasting with these four, stand as potential candidates.
Obtaining the status of candidate country is only the beginning of the long journey towards joining the EU. Turkey became a candidate country in 1999, North Macedonia in 2005, and Serbia since 2012, but none of them have officially joined the EU to date. Currently, Croatia is the latest country to join the EU—this happened in 2013, and it took a total of 10 years.
According to data from the European Commission, Turkey applied to join the European Economic Community in 1987. It gained the status of a candidate country in 1999, and officially started negotiations for membership in 2005. However, the European Union determined in 2018 that Turkey had continued to show so-called ‘regretments’ in key areas such as ‘democratic system’, ‘basic rights’, and ‘judicial independence’. As a result, negotiations for Turkey’s membership became stalled.
Today, Turkey remains a candidate country for EU membership and an important partner of the EU in matters such as immigration, trade, and security. However, negotiations towards EU membership have not resumed. According to EU-related materials, Turkey has initiated 16 negotiation chapters so far, with only one chapter temporarily closed. The last meeting regarding EU membership took place in 2016.
The situation in Serbia is different.
Serbia applied to join the EU in 2009, obtained candidate status in 2012, and officially started negotiations in 2014. Currently, 22 out of 35 negotiating chapters have been opened, but only 2 are temporarily closed. In recent years, the EU has continuously demanded that Serbia implement reforms in the areas of rule of law, judiciary, and elections, and has tried to pressure Serbia to normalize its relations with Kosovo authorities.
Therefore, compared to Montenegro and Albania, Turkey and Serbia not only have insufficient waiting times, but also face political and institutional challenges that the EU finds more difficult to overcome.
Of course, Brussels can say that negotiations between Montenegro and Albania have indeed progressed faster. Ukraine and Moldova have also achieved new reforms. The roadmap is not a 'backdoor' approach.
On the other hand, the EU itself has also recognized that expansion has an increasingly significant geo-strategic significance.
And then, the real test will soon come.
POLITICO EU reveals that EU leaders will discuss "expansion and internal reforms" at the summit held from October 15th to 16th. At that time, leaders from various countries will decide how quickly and through what mechanisms the EU should welcome new members. Kos hopes that the upcoming policy adjustments and discussions among leaders will make this autumn the so-called "autumn of expansion".
What the EU really needs to answer now is not just "who is eligible to join", but whether the old and lengthy "queue rules" can still be applied when European security and geopolitical needs warrant an acceleration in expansion.
It's no wonder that some countries have grown resentful towards the EU. In August 2023, Milorad Dodik, then President of the Serb Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, said: "There is an alternative to joining the EU. Given the continuous introduction of new, ambiguous conditions for membership by Brussels, I believe Bosnia and Herzegovina should apply to join the BRICS organization. I believe this would be accepted before joining the EU."
