Trump may think that waiting at the moment is more beneficial for the US than accepting Tehran's conditions, but being deeply involved in the war with Iran could cost him even more.
According to Al Jazeera and CNN, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz on September 26, local time. Iran stated that it is awaiting a 'final' response from the mediator regarding the U.S.
"I rejected their proposal. They want to reach an agreement, immediately opening the Taiwan Strait, because they lost badly." Trump stated on June 26th, "They want to reach an agreement, and I think that's fine. I also like reaching agreements, but the agreement itself is unacceptable.”
On the 27th local time, Iran’s Foreign Minister Alaei said: “We have seen the initial reactions of the US President, but the mediation parties have not conveyed any information to us yet.”
He added, “Of course, Trump has also said many nice things, but unfortunately we often hear him say contradictory things. We are waiting for the final opinion conveyed by the mediator and will make a decision based on that.”
During the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Qatar, as an intermediary, facilitated the latest round of diplomatic communication between the United States and Iran.
Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire includes several requirements: the US should lift the maritime blockade on Iranian ports, exempt Iran from sanctions related to oil sales, release approximately $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and implement a ceasefire in broader regions such as Lebanon and Yemen.
In exchange, Iran will reopen the Hormuz Strait and negotiate an final agreement with the US side.
This latest proposal is similar to the memorandum of understanding signed between the two countries in June. However, the memorandum was annulled last month due to disagreements over its terms, leading to an escalation of conflicts between the two sides. Confrontations have been particularly intense in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding areas, with the Strait currently under Iranian blockade.
Some analysts believe that Trump's refusal to accept the proposal indicates that although both sides maintain the possibility of diplomatic negotiations at the public level, there is still a huge difference in the core issue of who will make the first concession.
London King's College Associate Professor Kreig told Al Jazeera: 'Trump's plans are very straightforward. He believes that a naval blockade combined with economic isolation has already put sufficient pressure on Iran. Iran's introduction of this latest proposal reflects Iran's weakness, not a negotiation opportunity that the US must seize.'
Krüger said that Trump’s public statement that Iran “lost badly” is crucial, indicating that he believes time will continue to increase America’s bargaining power.
Reports indicate that Trump's key judgment during his consideration was that the economic pressure on Iran has not yet achieved full effect.
The Trump administration continues to intensify economic pressure on Tehran. On one hand, it has tightened maritime sanctions, imposed sanctions on Iran's oil revenues, and threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries that trade with Iran.
Last week, the United States imposed sanctions on Iran in the aviation sector, disrupting Iranian flight operations. Several weeks earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bernankast announced economic pressure against Iran, promising to target Tehran's financial interests worldwide.
NATO Defense College's senior non-resident researcher, Weitz, stated that the White House may believe that 'after some more time has passed, more favorable negotiation conditions will be obtained.'
He pointed out that Washington also has concerns regarding the order of provisions in the Iranian proposal. Therefore, the U.S. considers that ‘continuing economic pressure will ultimately force the Iranian government to make more concessions.’
Weitz added, "A situation similar to this occurred about ten years ago, leading to the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. At that time, the Iranian government decided to make concessions on the nuclear program in exchange for the US lifting economic sanctions. Therefore, it is possible that such interest exchanges will occur again in the coming months."
Some analyses suggest that choosing to reject the ceasefire in favor of negotiations also poses significant political risks for Trump. The Republican Party may lose in the mid-term elections in November.
A poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos at the end of August showed that 63% of Americans oppose a joint American-Israeli war against Iran, with only 31% expressing support. Rising fuel and transportation costs will also intensify people's concerns about living costs before the elections.
Krieger said that the challenge faced by Trump is that the impact of time is bidirectional, not just continuing to squeeze Iran. “In this game, time affects both sides.”
According to Krug's analysis, as midterm elections approach, Trump does not want to appear as if he is simply lifting the blockade and lifting oil sanctions, or releasing Iranian assets, just to re-establish a waterway that has been blockaded unilaterally by Iran.
"But every week of waiting means energy prices keep rising, military action risks persist, and the pressure on Gulf region allies keeps increasing." he said.
The Hormuz Strait is largely closed, disrupting the oil and gas exports of the Gulf states. These countries rely heavily on energy exports to sustain their finances.
Katara Doha Graduate Institute professor Elmasri pointed out that Iran's proposal can be seen as a 'taste of sweetness' offered to Trump, attempting to find a way to lower oil and gas prices before the election.
But he also said that Iran might decide to “make Trump pay for refusing the proposal and the economic pressure on Iran,” and that “Iran might choose to escalate conflicts as midterm elections approach.”
Elmarsi mentioned that the Republican Party is currently facing poor poll ratings, and many Republican candidates are distancing themselves from Trump. Polls indicate that the Republican Party may lose its slim majority in the U.S. Congress.
He stated that not only Iran is under the heavy pressure of American maritime blockades and ongoing sanctions, 'the Trump administration also bears significant pressure.'
Krueger said that Trump “wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran, but is unwilling to fully bear the economic and political costs that Iran demands from the US.” “The risk is that he equates the pressure that Iran bears with its willingness to surrender. These are not the same thing.”
Krieger believes that Iran is undoubtedly under great pressure, and sanctions and blockades are having an effect. This is precisely why Tehran hopes to reach an agreement.
But increased pressure may not lead to more concessions.
Krieger said that Iran can instead increase the conflict costs for its opponents. These measures include taking action in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging regional infrastructure, and potentially affecting the Gulf of Aden as well.
In recent weeks, pro-Iranian Houthi forces have expanded their control along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, resulting in a significant increase in the strategic importance of the Strait of Mandeb.
The Houla militant group's achievement means they have gained the ability to freely navigate this narrow waterway. In the past, the organization has supported Palestinian people in Gaza and attacked Israeli-flagged ships. This situation has caused concern among the global shipping industry.
Hussein forces have announced that they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi ships in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia originally used the Red Sea as an alternative route for oil exports, in order to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Krige warned, “So the situation could backfire. Trump believes that Iran has a more urgent time window than the United States. Tehran has a different view: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the global energy market—and ultimately Trump himself—are less tolerant of long-term shipping disruptions compared to Iran, which has a greater endurance in enduring economic punishment.”
The Middle Eastern Institute's senior researcher Harrison also stated that Tehran is now "more concerned about premature concessions than about overdoing action."
Harrison said that after the US response to the proposal, Tehran may believe that the cost of escalating conflicts is less than the cost of rushing to agree or showing a willingness to compromise.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on Saturday that after being attacked during several previous negotiations, and then facing sanctions, Iran no longer believes in negotiations with the United States. "We no longer trust the US side, and we don't know what assumptions could be based upon to reach a consensus with them."
American analyst Harrison pointed out that Tehran is likely “completely surprised” by Trump’s refusal to accept the proposal. One of the reasons Iran presented this proposal was to show both the Iranian people and the American public that Iran is still willing to negotiate.
Some analysts point out that Iran is aware of Trump’s desire for a withdrawal plan that can be declared as a “victory”.
Krieger said: “Iran is making a big investment in time. Iran’s strategy is to maintain high levels of conflict pressure, forcing Trump back to the negotiating table, while making the exit plan he wants more expensive.”
"Iran's core judgment is: Don't make an agreement with Trump on a cheap deal. A few weeks or months down the line, Trump's need for the agreement might become more urgent." Craig stated.
Harrison commented that Iran's proposal is a "good-will gesture," aimed at demonstrating the country's and the United States' willingness to negotiate.
Krieger believes that 'prolonged' conflict is the most likely outcome. He added, 'Both sides need a deal, but for now, both believe waiting will lead to better negotiation terms in the end.'
