According to an exclusive report by the British newspaper The Guardian on June 10th, a survey shows that Europe's confidence in the United States' ‘security guarantees’ has reached a historical low. Among the 15 countries surveyed, only one-tenth of the people considered the United States as an ally. And in all of these countries, most people doubt whether the United States would provide assistance in case their country was attacked.
This survey was released by the think tank organization European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on the same day, as France and Turkey are set to host crucial G7 and NATO summits in the coming weeks. The report’s authors pointed out that the findings reveal “a deep mistrust of the United States among Europeans.”
Surveys also show that although many Europeans believe that relations between the United States and Europe will improve after President Trump leaves office, during this period, they are increasingly inclined to strengthen their own defense capabilities in order to cope with uncertainties from the United States.
The report specifically notes that Trump’s radical policies in the Middle East, his threatening statements regarding the Danish autonomous territory of Greenland, his tentative announcements about withdrawing troops from Europe and America, and his doubts about the future of NATO have led Europeans to increasingly turn to “pragmatism”.
In the eyes of Europeans, the proportion of relations between the United States and their own country as allies (dark blue) and partners (light blue) has mostly decreased, while the proportion of competitors (orange) and enemies (red) has mostly increased. Guardian mapping
"The entire European mainland is clearly supportive of reducing dependence on Washington," said Jana Kobzová, senior policy fellow at ECFR. "Europeans are increasingly willing to increase defense spending, and what's most important is that they have shown great confidence in the belief that their neighbors will come to their aid during a crisis."
Kobzoova's colleague, Paweł Zerka, who also serves as a senior policy researcher at the ECFR, said that the public's clear demand for greater autonomy and the need to mitigate risks associated with US defense capabilities have created an opportunity for European leaders to take 'deeper and more rapid action' on security issues.
This survey was conducted in May this year in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
The results show that in all the countries surveyed, only an average of 11% of respondents considered the United States as an ally. This was compared to 16% six months ago, and 22% in November 2024. The mainstream view is that the United States is now a “necessary partner.” Additionally, 13% of European public consider the United States as a competitor, and 12% consider it as a direct enemy.
In every country interviewed, most people no longer believe that the United States will offer help in case of an attack. However, except for Bulgaria, most citizens in countries with strong far-right political parties, such as France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden, believe that “at least some European countries” will provide assistance in such situations.
If one’s own country is attacked, how confident is one in the ability of the United States to provide defense? Even among countries like Poland, which have the highest proportion of confidence, it’s less than 40%. Guardian Mapping
Surveys show that, compared to last year, the proportion of Europeans who support increasing defense spending has increased by 4%. Italy is the only country where a significant majority of people still opposes this policy.
On average, 47% of respondents supported the EU’s use of joint borrowing to fund increased defense spending, while 35% were opposed. The countries with the highest levels of support included Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), the Netherlands (55%), and Spain.
In almost all of the countries surveyed, most respondents said that their countries should reduce their strategic dependence on American military equipment. The countries where the public has the highest support for "buying European products" include Denmark (75%), the Netherlands (72%), Sweden (70%), Portugal (69%), France (66%), Switzerland (64%), and the UK and Spain (both 62%).
However, among the proposals to cut domestic public spending to fund higher defense budgets, the support rate for this option is significantly low. The countries with the strongest opposition include Italy (63%), Austria (59%), Germany (56%), Spain (54%), and Denmark (52%).
Additionally, the idea of replacing NATO with a defense agency composed solely of EU members is also poorly supported (only 29%). Except for Bulgaria, the majority of countries believe that US-EU relations “might improve” once Trump leaves office. The proportion of respondents who hold this view reached 60% or more in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden.
Although energy costs continue to rise, 44% of Europeans consider resuming imports of oil and natural gas from Russia to be a “rather bad” or “very bad” idea. However, Ukraine’s desire to join the EU continues to cause divisions in Europe. In Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany, and even Estonia—one of the strongest supporters of Kiev authorities—the proportion of opponents of accepting Ukraine in the “current context” is higher than those who support it.
On December 5th of last year, the U.S. government suddenly released a new version of its national security strategy document without prior notice. This 33-page document emphasized the “great ideological gap” that has emerged between the United States and its traditional allies. The document criticized Europe for being trapped in a “double dilemma”: “The share of the European continent in global GDP has been declining, but this economic decline is now masked by the severe risk of cultural extinction.”
The British 'Financial Times' analyzed at the time that this strategy highlighted a complete shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, as well as an increasingly widening ideological divide between Washington and traditional allies. Compared to the Biden administration's national security strategy, a significant difference of this new strategy is the reduction of confrontational rhetoric towards China and Russia, with the Western hemisphere being prioritized as a strategic 'core interest'.
This strategy echoes the speech delivered by US Vice President Wilson at the Munich Security Conference last February. At that time, Wilson's 'hostile tone' towards the EU, as well as his statement that 'the greatest threat to Europe comes from its own democratic flaws rather than Russian aggression', shocked America's European allies.
