According to a poll conducted by the opinion research firm Elabe, commissioned by French commercial radio station BFMTV and newspaper La Tribune Dimanche, French far-right party National Rally’s presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is expected to win whether she faces any opponent in the second round of the 2027 presidential elections.
This poll was conducted online from August 26 to 28 among 1,500 French adults. The results showed that if the opponent in the second round were a candidate from the centrist party Horizons or former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, 52.5% of respondents said they would vote for Le Pen. Philippe is considered the candidate most likely to enter the second round and compete with Le Pen for the presidency. He is also seen as the candidate with the best chances of defeating Le Pen.
In the case of other potential opponents, Le Pen has a greater lead. If her opponent in the second round is a candidate from the Renaissance party, another former French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, or Raphael Glucksmann, the leader of the center-left Place Publique party, Le Pen is likely to receive 57% of the votes. If she faces Jean-Luc Melenchon, the presidential candidate of the far-left Party of Unbowed France in the second round, Le Pen could potentially get 69.5% of the votes.
In the first round of elections, Le Pen is also in a leading position. Poll firms have set up six scenarios for different candidates and political combinations. In all six scenarios, Le Pen ranks first, with vote rates ranging from 34% to 35.5%.
BFMTV/ The "Sunday Forum" public opinion survey, held by BFMTV from August 26th to 28th, 2026, shows the tentative voting intentions for the first round of the 2027 presidential election. BFMTV
Mei Langxiong ranked third in three scenarios, with a voter share of 14% to 14.5%; he ranked second in the other three scenarios. Philip ranked second across all of his candidacy scenarios (only he represented the center-aligned camp). His vote share was between 17% to 20.5%. However, if Atal, a candidate also from the center-aligned camp, continued to run, he is expected to win with a slightly lower voter share than Mei Langxiong at 14.5%.
The first round of the next French presidential election is scheduled to take place on April 18, 2027. The French presidential election uses a “majority two-round system”. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, the two candidates with the highest percentages of votes will enter the runoff election, which will be held on May 2.
