According to an Associated Press report on August 26, a U.S. defense official stationed in Europe and a NATO official revealed to the newspaper that due to President Donald Trump's war against Iran, the U.S. military is facing an "extremely critical" shortage of advanced interceptor missiles in Europe. This has raised concerns among NATO countries: Can we withstand potential Russian attacks?
U.S. defense officials stated that the most concerning issue is the shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles, which are used to shoot down Russian high-speed ballistic missiles. The NATO official also confirmed that the inventory of Patriot missiles in Europe, both under U.S. and NATO forces, is low. Due to the sensitive military matters involved, both officials requested anonymity.
This U.S. defense official pointed out that if Russia launches ballistic missile attacks on military headquarters or power plants, NATO could face a similar situation to that in Ukraine—being forced to “endure consecutive blows” due to a lack of Patriot interceptor missiles. The official also said that in Europe, the U.S. military “definitely does not have enough Patriot interceptor missiles” to withstand any potential ongoing ballistic missile attacks. The ability to defend against ballistic missile strikes or shrapnel would be “very limited.”
Bloomberg analysis suggests that this is a chain reaction of Trump’s decision to enter the Iran War. The U.S. missile inventory in Europe has been transferred to the Middle East, where the United States and its Gulf allies have consumed a large number of interceptor missiles to intercept Iranian drones and missiles, including the Patriot system.
Although it is expected that Russia will not immediately launch ballistic missile attacks against NATO countries, according to the Wall Street Journal, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow this week to “warn Russia not to act rashly”.
When asked by reporters on the 27th whether Ratcliffe conveyed this information to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump gave a evasive answer: “I don’t want to comment on this, but they won’t attack.”
However, Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesman and US Army colonel, gave a different account regarding the stockpile of interceptor missiles. He stated that the number of European ‘Patriot’ missiles is ‘not in a highly critical state’. NATO is capable of withstanding attacks, and it has sufficient anti-aircraft ammunition, which can be used for its own defense as well as to provide assistance to Ukraine.
Pentagon Chief Spokesperson Sean Pennelly also stated in a statement on the 28th that the claims of a shortage of ammunition in the United States are “false”. He said: “We have everything we need to launch strikes at the time and place chosen by the President. In all combat areas commands, we have successfully carried out operations while maintaining a large and readily available arsenal to defend our people and interests.”
However, Ukrainian officials are still begging for more ‘Patriot’ systems to defend against Russian missile attacks – after the U.S. assistance to Ukraine has already depleted some of its interceptor missile reserves. Kiev states that only the ‘Patriot’ systems manufactured by the U.S. can effectively intercept Russia’s advanced ballistic missiles, which are increasingly breaking through Ukrainian defenses.
Senior advisor at the Washington Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, retired Navy SEAL Lieutenant Colonel Mark Canisian, stated that during the Biden administration, the US provided Ukraine with approximately 600 anti-aircraft missiles.
According to Ed Arnold, a senior associate researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank, although the United States provided Ukraine with a large number of interceptor missiles during the four-and-a-half-year conflict, the war against Iran is the turning point for the reduction of military stockpiles.
He said that supplies to Ukraine were “planned and reasonably assessed,” while the conflict in the Middle East unexpectedly quickly depleted inventory, exposing bottlenecks in the supply chain.
According to statistics from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Middle East conflict has depleted 65% of the United States' ‘Patriot’ missiles, which is equivalent to about 1500 out of the country's 2330 interceptor missiles.
Facing a shortage of interceptor missiles, NATO stated that Europe’s first "Patriot" missile production facility is expected to start production in Germany in September, with the first deliveries possibly beginning early next year. U.S. defense officials said that the first batch of products should be preferentially supplied to countries that have placed orders, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Spain.
London-based think tank expert Arnold commented: “But for now, this means that some countries, such as Germany, have purchased expensive ‘Patriot’ systems, but are in a ridiculous situation where they have the systems but no ammunition to use them.”
