Recently, Japanese media reported that Izoto Ishinari, chairman of the Japanese Center-Right Reform Joint Information Committee, and Hashimoto Gakuen, former deputy minister for health and labor from the Liberal Democratic Party, along with other cross-party lawmakers, will visit China from August 24 to 27. The details regarding the visit by the delegation are still being coordinated.
According to a report by Nanhua Morning Post on August 21st, Xu Weijun, an associate researcher at the Public Policy Research Institute of South China University of Technology in Guangzhou, stated that this visit is a 'semi-official' diplomatic effort carried out by some Japanese MPs who advocate maintaining communication with China through non-core administrative channels.
Xu Weijun stated that although Hashimoto Yuki is the only member of the delegation from the ruling party, she is not a cabinet member of Japanese Prime Minister Koike Kaoruko, nor does she hold key foreign policy positions. He added that Hashimoto Yuki is considered to have a relatively friendly stance towards China.
Xu Weijun said that there is no public information indicating that the office of Gao Masame, the Japanese Foreign Ministry, or the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party has officially authorized this delegation, which is reported to be visiting China.
This visit is primarily for crisis management and does not mean that Japan-China relations will soon thaw.
Chen Yang, the director of the Japan Research Center at Beijing Haiyi Research Institute, also stated that it cannot be simply equated the visit of the Japanese delegation to China with the thawing of Sino-Japanese relations. However, this would be a 'positive signal worthy of attention'.
He said: “This indicates that both China and Japan are working hard to restore the frozen political communication channels, creating conditions for stable relations between China and Japan.”
On November 7 last year, Yoshihiko Koumoi stated in the Japanese parliament that if Beijing launched a military attack on Taiwan or imposed a naval blockade, it could constitute a “catastrophic crisis” for Japan. This indicated that Tokyo might exercise its collective self-defense rights at that time. Since then, Sino-Japanese relations have fallen to their lowest point in many years.
Since the beginning of this year, tensions have continued to escalate. Beijing has tightened restrictions on Japan’s exports of rare metals and dual-use items, while Tokyo has accelerated the expansion of its defense forces and deepened military relations with partners such as the United States, the Philippines, and Australia.
Xu Weijun said that, according to reports, the other main members of the delegation belong to the opposition party. In areas such as diplomacy, security, historical understanding, and policies towards China, these parties differ from the 'conservative political line' represented by Koichu Maehara to varying degrees.
He said, “Their initiative to promote this visit reflects the view of some forces in Japanese politics that, under the leadership of Koichi Koizumi, relations with China have become too severe. They believe that even if there are difficulties in political dialogue between the two governments, it is necessary to maintain some direct channels of communication with China.”
The Chinese-speaking Japanese politician Ito Shinichi worked at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing about 20 years ago. He posted a warning on social media on Wednesday, stating that current relations between China and Japan are in the "worst state" since the two countries established normal diplomatic relations in 1972.
He wrote: "If this situation continues, it will not be in line with the interests of either Japan or China. In any case, a window for dialogue needs to be maintained between the two countries."
Chen Yang said that the cross-party composition of the delegation indicates that improving relations with China is not the sole proposition of a single Japanese political party, but rather a demand shared by different political forces in Japan.
He said, “This shows that… Japanese politics is not monolithic. There are still political forces who hope to manage differences through dialogue and restore communication. The symbolic significance of this Japanese cross-party delegation’s visit to China is quite significant.”
Xu Weijun stated that the Gao Shi Zaoyan government has yet to show any intention of improving relations with China, and there is no indication that it will change its stance on Taiwan and security issues.
He said, “It will be very difficult to thaw out Sino-Japanese relations in the short term. China opposes the wrong policies of the Yukio Akamine government, but it does not refuse to engage in exchanges with Japan.”
Chen Yang also said that whether Sino-Japanese relations can be thawed depends on whether the high-level political exchanges between the two countries can return to normal, whether the Japanese government can avoid taking 'provocative' actions on core issues such as Taiwan, and whether both sides can turn dialogue into practical cooperation.
He said that if Japan ‘send its lawmakers to China while continuing to send strong provocative signals regarding Taiwan and security policies’, it will not contribute to improving relations between the two countries.
Chen Yang stated: “The visit of a cross-party parliamentary delegation from Japan to China can be seen as an indication that relations between China and Japan are ‘beginning to thaw,’ but the future of China-Japan relations remains uncertain.”
Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that we have noticed that some insightful people in Japanese political parties are deeply concerned about the current Sino-Japanese relations. We hope that efforts will be made to put bilateral relations on the right track. We urge the current Japanese leaders to listen to and take into account these voices, adhere to the principles of the four political documents between China and Japan, and take practical actions to create necessary conditions for normal Sino-Japanese exchanges.
