After being in power for ten months, whether Yukio Akamine can avoid the fate of a "short-lived cabinet" is the focus of everyone's attention.
According to a report by Nikkei Chinese Network on August 21, it is widely believed within the Japanese government and the ruling party that the Kashi cabinet will undergo its first reorganization and major personnel changes at the top level of the Liberal Democratic Party in mid-to-late September.
The core of this adjustment is to admit members of the ruling Japanese New Party into the cabinet in order to strengthen the government, and to decide on the fate of Japan Civil Party Secretary-General Suzuki Shunichi.
Based on the initial support rate of approximately 70% achieved when the cabinet was formed in October 2025, and the historic victory achieved after the dissolution of the National People's Congress in February this year, the ruling coalition enjoyed a very stable political environment. However, recent polls show an unexpected shift in public opinion.
Since July, the support rate for Governor Koike early-morning cabinet has been declining continuously. According to a poll by Yomiuri Newspaper, the support rate for Koike's cabinet dropped sharply from 69% in June to 57%, a decrease of 12 percentage points, reaching a new low since her appointment. The proportion of those who do not support the cabinet has risen to 34%.
Although the support rate is still above half, 50% represents an important psychological threshold. Yomiuri Shimbun analyzed a set of poll data: among the 11 governments from the Koizumi government in 2001 to the previous Ishihara government, 8 governments fell from power less than 1 year and 4 months after taking office. The common feature is that, regardless of their support rate at the time of taking office, their support rate dropped below 50% around 9 months into their tenure.
Regarding the reason for the continuous decline in Kei Yuriko’s support rate, apart from political disputes, economic and people's livelihood issues are particularly prominent. Reporters from the magazine "Global" conducted multiple interviews locally and found that many ordinary Japanese people have expressed concerns such as rising food prices, wages not keeping up with inflation, and heavy social insurance burdens. These direct experiences have led to dissatisfaction with Kei’s cabinet’s economic policies, thereby affecting her support rate.
So, is this one of the motives for high-level cabinet reshuffle?
Regarding this, Kyodo News previously analyzed that Governor Takahashi intends to reverse the declining support rate through personnel changes. However, a article published by Nikkei Chinese Network on August 21 pointed out that there are precedents in Japanese history where cabinets did not undergo major reforms for long periods. For example, during the Abe administration that took office in 2012, there was no change in personnel for a full year and eight months after their arrival. In the case of Governor Takahashi's administration, the current support rate is still relatively high, so there seems to be no need to rush to reform the cabinet in order to boost the support rate.
According to an analysis article on Nikkei Chinese Network, the main reason why Kaoru Yosuke decided to change the policy early is to include ministers sent by the Japan Restoration Party, which formed a coalition government last year. The model of a coalition government where members of the Restoration Party are not appointed to cabinet is known as "non-cabinet cooperation," and this arrangement inherently has vulnerabilities in terms of governance.
The article points out that the focus of this reorganization lies in the personnel arrangements for the chief executive. The current chief executive, Suzuki Shunichi, comes from the only remaining faction within the party—the Masayoshi faction. He is also the brother-in-law of Vice President Masayoshi Taro. For Takashi Takashima, who has always been concerned about the party’s foundation since taking office, maintaining a relationship with the Masayoshi faction is crucial for the stability of the government. It is worth mentioning that when Takashima decided to dissolve the House of Representatives in January this year, he did not communicate or coordinate with Suzuki beforehand. Therefore, there have been reports of a strained relationship between the two.
Regarding this, the article states that Hagiwara Mitsuo, the acting director general who has a close relationship with Governor Takahashi, is considered a potential successor.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei Chinese website also analyzed that the personnel arrangements for Japanese Finance Minister Yamagoe and Economic and Financial Minister Muto are also of great concern. Given the long-term upward trend in interest rates, the appointment or dismissal of these two officials could be interpreted by the market as a signal of policy changes. Additionally, they will be responsible for handling the core issues of the autumn parliamentary session—related bills concerning tax cuts.
In addition to the personnel arrangements, the article also provides a key piece of information: this cabinet reshuffle is closely related to Governor Miyazaki’s strategy for re-election.
The term of the mayor’s presidency will expire in September 2027. Among the candidates competing for the presidency in 2025, such as Shinzo Abe, Hirofumi Hiraoka, Taguchi Takashi, and Toshihiro Momo, many have already been appointed to positions in party executive departments and the cabinet. Among them, Hirofumi Hiraoka frequently meets with members who keep a distance from Mayor Takashi, such as former Prime Minister Shigeru Akamatsu. There are even voices suggesting that he should consider resigning from his current position starting next year.
The analysis of this article states that if Mr. Takahashi excludes Lin Fangzheng from the cabinet, it is likely that the idea of him seeking a re-election without a vote will not be realized. Koizumi Shinjiro and Kobayashi Takashi are considered potential successors in the 'post-Takahashi era'. If Mr. Takahashi places them in important positions, it might put himself in a passive position during the next president election, making it difficult for him to respond flexibly.
