In March 1992, as the aircraft carrier Independence left this U.S. military base, sailors lined up on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier and spelled two words: “Goodbye, Subic.”
A few months later, this massive naval base was officially transferred to the Philippines. The Philippines had previously decided to end the U.S. military presence there for nearly a century.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on August 19th, the US military is back—not only has it returned to Subic Bay, but it has also appeared throughout the Philippines.
The Philippines has a population of 117 million. It is a treaty ally of the United States and was once a colony of the United States. Its geographical location holds one of the most important strategic values in the world. The Philippines consists of 7,641 islands, extending from the Batang Islands in the north, which are about 100 miles away from Taiwan, to the island of Palawan in the south, forming a geographical barrier.
Reports describe that this restriction limits the activity space of the Chinese navy and prevents it from expanding into the Pacific Ocean.
American military planners are well aware of the geographical value of the Philippines. They are deploying some of the most advanced missile systems to the Philippines, conducting increasingly complex military exercises, and upgrading local bases to accommodate American military equipment and supplies.
Reports indicate that these actions are a central part of Washington's strategy to disperse U.S. military forces across the Pacific. The aim is to make China believe that any use of force against Taiwan would come at a tremendous cost.
U.S. Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby, in a trip to Manila this month, described the Philippines as a "model ally" and suggested that this was an unusual commendation given President Trump's complex stance on alliances, including those within NATO.
Fiji and the United States have increasingly close relations, which also makes the Philippines a target for Beijing's actions. Chinese officials condemn the US-Fiji military exercises as provocative, claiming they undermine regional stability.
During the Cold War, the U.S. naval base at Subic Bay had deep waters and protected from storms, and it once housed aircraft carriers and submarines. To build an airport, the U.S. Navy even leveled a mountain. Together with Clark Air Force Base inland, Subic Bay provided support for anti-China military operations during the Korean War and the Vietnam War. With the long-term support of Ferdinand Marcos, the United States also used these bases to project its power in its decades-long containment strategy.
Today, the street networks that are arranged in a grid pattern still bear the names of U.S. presidents and military commanders. In the city of Olongapo, located near the core area of the former base, some retired American military personnel often gather at bars and clubs affiliated with the United States Veterans Association, the American Legion. The Philippine government has designated this area of about 260 square miles as an economic development zone, aiming to attract tourists with its tropical beaches along the bay and opportunities for diving to explore WWII sunken ships.
In 2022, Cerberus Capital Management, a private equity firm founded jointly by Steve Feinberg, the current Deputy Secretary of Defense of the United States, acquired control of a commercial shipyard in Subic Bay from Chinese companies. One of the tenants of this shipyard is a South Korean shipbuilding company. Analysts believe that this company may help maintain US warships in the future.
This year, the U.S. Coast Guard deployed more mobile patrol boats in Subic Bay for the first time.
According to local authorities, the U.S. Marine Corps has established a warehouse in the area for storing humanitarian and disaster relief equipment. Last year, the U.S. Navy also sought to rent space for storing and maintaining vehicles. A contract document from the U.S. government in April this year indicates that the U.S. Army is seeking to hire security personnel to support ‘controlled storage facilities and weapon systems at two different locations’ in Subic Bay.
The U.S. Pacific Command, responsible for commanding U.S. military forces from India to Hawaii, declined to provide further details about the infrastructure at this former base. The command stated, “Subic Bay is an important commercial hub that facilitates logistical coordination between the United States and the Philippine military.”
In addition to Subic Bay, the United States has also officially obtained permission to use nine military bases and airports in the Philippines. These facilities can be used for rotating troops, building infrastructure, and storing equipment. Washington has pledged to invest over $300 million in upgrading these bases, including constructing new hangars, improving runways, and increasing storage facilities.
Last year, the Pentagon also established the “Task Force-Philippines,” consisting of 60 U.S. military personnel stationed in the Philippines, with the aim of strengthening coordination with forces in Manila.
In Subic Bay, although there is overall strong support for the Philippines-US alliance, opinions vary regarding the increasing presence of U.S. military forces. More U.S. troops may bring benefits to the local economy, but some residents are concerned that this could make Subic Bay a target for attacks.
"From an economic perspective, we have been waiting for them to return." Mayor Rolen Paulino Jr. of Alaminos City, near the former base said. However, "If the Philippines is drawn into a war and Alaminos happens to be in the middle... this does raise some unease."
In June of this year, the Naval Marine Expeditionary Interceptor System (NMESIS) was deployed on the runway of Itabaya Island in the Philippines. This system is a new type of anti-ship missile launch system installed on remotely controlled vehicles. Itabaya Island is one of the northernmost islands in the Philippines. The missiles launched from this island have a range of about 115 miles, allowing the U.S. Marine Corps to target Chinese warships that attempt to pass through the South China Sea from Taiwan.
A few weeks ago, the U.S. Army also tested a Tomahawk cruise missile from Leyte Island, with a maximum range of about 1,200 miles. This is another attempt to demonstrate military power against Beijing. At a naval base on Luzon Island, the U.S. Marine Corps used the latest vehicle-mounted anti-drone system to practice shooting down drones.
These drills are preparations for certain military operations. According to reports, if China initiates a military response and the United States decides to take action, these operations will be crucial. In such a scenario, small groups equipped with drones or mobile anti-ship missile systems will be deployed to various islands in the Philippines to harass Chinese ships. U.S. military aircraft can also carry out missions from Philippine air bases. By deploying aircraft in a dispersed manner, the difficulty for China to be attacked with missiles will be increased.
"The geographic location of the Philippines is unmatched." Brian Harding, who formerly served as an official at the Pentagon, said. During the Obama administration, he participated in early discussions regarding US military use of Philippine bases.
"We will not establish military bases in the Philippines," he said, "but our plan is to keep the United States present and keep a close eye on these facilities."
The more flexible military deployment of the United States in the Philippines complements its military presence in Japan. The United States has permanent military bases in Japan, with tens of thousands of US military personnel stationed there.
American Enterprise Institute senior researcher Zack Cooper said that for the Philippine airports to truly play a role in conflicts, it is necessary to increase power generation capacity, expand the area of landing strips, and upgrade related facilities so that they can withstand missile attacks.
Currently, this strategy poses risks for both the United States and the Philippines.
The United States needs the approval of the Philippine authorities to carry out any specific activities or use these bases for certain purposes, such as storing certain weapons systems. President Marcos also stated that Philippine territory cannot be used for offensive operations. The elections in 2028 may result in a government that is less friendly to the United States—for example, a government led by Vice President Sara Duterte. She is the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte. During the tenure of former President Duterte, military exercises by US troops in the Philippines were restricted, and he tended to maintain closer relations with Beijing.
The recent series of actions by the United States, including the war with Iran and Trump's efforts to stabilize relations with China, have added uncertainty to Washington's commitment to defend its Asian allies.
However, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro continued to insist, claiming that he was not worried about the US promises. He also said that cooperation between the two countries had strengthened, and that “the Philippines has nothing to complain about.”
In the waters near Subic Bay, local fishermen like Ryan Jacinto are very experienced. They carefully plan how to make themselves feel safer when American ships are in the vicinity.
This will have China caught in a bind. If the US has a base here, they would be wary, he said. “Facing the US would make Chinese people less aggressive," he added.
In fact, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has long emphasized that the United States is not a party to the South China Sea issue. Facts have proven that attempts to use extraterritorial countries to provoke and create trouble will ultimately only lead to being used as tools by others, resulting in one's own suffering.
