The Financial Times reported on the 19th that sources within the Iranian regime indicated that Tehran increasingly believes it is necessary to resume the war between the US and Iran. They are studying the possibility of Iran expanding its retaliation beyond the Middle East if US President Trump escalates the conflict, potentially attacking US military bases in countries such as Bulgaria and Cyprus. Iran has also assessed the possibility of attacking the undersea fiber optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
Two insiders from the Iranian regime said that the Iranian military has assessed attacks on US military assets in countries like Bulgaria in southeastern Europe. Bulgaria only approved the use of US tankers at its Bezmer air base in July. One of the insiders revealed that Cyprus is also listed as a potential target for retaliation; the British Air Force base at Akrotiri in Cyprus was attacked by drones in March.
In July, Iran attacked a US military base in Jordan, resulting in the death of three US soldiers. Sources said that this was Iran's most precise long-range attack to date, proving Tehran's ability to target further distances. One of the sources explicitly stated that this attack "is also a message to Europe," warning that choosing the wrong side could lead to missile strikes.
Iran has also attempted to strike long-range targets in the past. Several weeks after the US and Israel launched their war against Iran in February, Washington accused Tehran of launching multiple missiles at the US-British joint military base on Diego Garcia, located about 4000 kilometers away in the Indian Ocean. None of the missiles struck their target. In March, NATO intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran.
British think tank RUSI researcher Sidharth Kaushal pointed out that the threat posed by Iranian missiles to Europe and other regions is 'real, but limited'. Iran can use the Shahab medium-range ballistic missiles to attack US assets in southern and southeastern Europe. However, when the range of these missiles is increased, the payload of the warheads must be sacrificed, resulting in a decrease in destructive power and accuracy.
Sources said that the scale of Iran’s retaliation will depend on Washington’s next actions. If Trump fulfills his threat to attack Iranian infrastructure, Tehran is ready to expand its operational scope further. Last month, Trump claimed that for every ship attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would destroy one of Iran’s bridges or power plants.
Another insider warned that Tehran’s response would be “unlimited,” stating that “if the United States goes too far, Iran will defend itself at any cost, spreading the flames of war beyond the Middle East, even attacking Europe.”
However, there are also concerns within the Iranian regime that Tehran is putting too much weight on certain factors. Many hardliners, including Mohsen Rezaei, the former commander of the Revolutionary Guard who was appointed as Iran’s top security officer last week, believe that the United States is not trustworthy and will not fulfill any agreements. Therefore, Iran must make Washington pay a higher price in order to ensure that the US fulfills its obligations under the final agreement.
Insiders describe that Tehran is sending a clear message to Washington: If the United States cannot reach an agreement with Speaker of Parliament Kalibaf, who represents the moderate faction, then they will have to face Rezai. They further describe Iran's message as: "Don’t compete with me in terms of madness, because I am more crazy than you."
