Texas Republicans just completed a costly and highly contentious senatorial election. To some extent, it was like a clash between two Americas.
On one side, theres John Cornyn, who is 74 years old. He started his career in law schools and later worked within the court system. He lived during the Bush era, and he had the support of wealthy corporations as well as Washington-based experience.
His career path was almost the standard template for traditional Republican politiciansa bachelors degree in journalism, a Ph.D. in law, a judge on the state supreme court, the state attorney general, and a federal senator. For over twenty years, he remained one of the most reliable gatekeepers for Republican politicians in Texas. Any Republican who wanted to enter the wealthy circles in Texas had to go through him.
Koenig Wiki
On the other side, theres Ken Paxton, whos 63 years old. Hes a typical politician of the MAGA eraone whos constantly involved in legal disputes, highly aggressive, prioritizes cultural warfare, and has been given a boost by Trumps personal endorsement.
Paxton, who holds a bachelors degree in psychology and an MBA, does not belong to the traditional conservative elite of Washington. He seems more like a Republican defined during Trumps era: he has limited trust in institutions, but he is deeply loyal to Trump.
Paxton Wiki
Interestingly, both of them have served as Attorney General of Texas.
But in Koenigs time, the Attorney General remained a legal official. By the time Paxton took over, this position became more and more like a command center for national right-wing propaganda efforts. From handling immigration cases to plotting electoral campaigns, and continuing to confront the federal government, he essentially turned the Attorney Generals office into part of the MAGA movement.
In Koenig, the biggest political asset was the traditional Republican donor network composed of oil, real estate, and energy giants in Texas. In Paxton, the biggest asset was Trumps public endorsement on Truth Social.
Even their enemies have changed.
The Democratic candidate who is waiting for them is James Talarico. He seems to belong to another America. He graduated from Harvards School of Education, worked as a middle school teacher, and is still pursuing his degree at a seminary. His speech is filled with religious rhetoric and language related to social justice. Unlike traditional Democratic candidates from Texas, he resembles more of a progressive Christian version of the people who existed during Obamas era.
Thus, this election ultimately turned into a rather peculiar scenario:
A Republican from the Bush era, a Republican from the Trump era, and a young teacher who seeks to redefine the politics of the Democratic Party in red-state America, are all competing for the future of this countrys largest red-state.
John Cornyns match against Ken Paxton came to an end on Tuesday evening. Paxton won with 60% of the votes. However, this brutal primary election has caused some Republicans to worry that the party will be severely weakened in the long run.
With the endorsement of President Trump, Paxton clearly became the leader in the final days of the election process.
This states attorney general, who holds a pro-MAGA stance, is deeply involved in scandals, and has a radical style of leadership. Yet he has managed to withstand the bombardment of millions of dollars in attack ads. Meanwhile, Koenigthe candidate most favored by the establishment, and a key figure in the Senate seeking a fifth term as senatoris still fighting hard. He has substantial campaign funding behind him, along with the unanimous support of senior congressional leaders.
In Spanish, they call it lucha de gigantesa battle between giants, said Daniel Garza, president of the conservative Texas organization LIBRE Institute. After the election, you will have to mend many broken relationships. His organization remained neutral during this primary election.
As the campaign enters its final stage, the competition has become increasingly vicious. Koning accused the attorney general of being morally unfit to hold public office, while Paxton argued that 74-year-old Koning was too old to continue serving in the Senate. The continuous mutual attacks by both parties only served to deepen the already-existing rift between the hardliners and the traditional moderates within the Republican Party.
Several Republicans from Texas and Washington have warned that Trumps decision to support Paxton instead of Cornyn has alienated some members of Congress. It could also lead to the loss of enthusiasm among those crucial Republican donors in future elections.
Waiting to defeat Paxton will be Democratic state representative Taralico. He has raised a significant amount of campaign funds, and he performs strongly in polls against both Republican candidates, especially when facing Paxton.
At the national level, Republicans are becoming increasingly concerned that if Paxton becomes a candidate, they will have to invest huge amounts of money to retain this seat. This would, in turn, draw away resources from other key battleground states.
Many wealthy Republicans across the countrywho have already invested significant funds in supporting Koenigalong with other pro-establishment Republicans, are worried that Paxton will drag down the Republican Partys performance in other elections. Meanwhile, Koenigs allies are furious at the idea of the president personally stepping forward to support a candidate whom they consider morally repugnant and who poses significant political risks to Democrats.
A Republican state legislator from Texas who supports Koenig fears retaliation and told Politico anonymously, Any vicious attacks will be true. Trump has destroyed trust there. No matter what we do for you, you will still stab us from behind. Thats how he treated Koenig.
In the weeks leading up to the election, Trump continued to incite division. He posted on social media, saying that Cornyn was very unloyal to me, and that Paxton will never disappoint you!
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
An assistant to the Paxton campaign team said, If I were asked whether I would like to be like John Cornyn right now well, of course not. He dismissed the personal attacks directed at the attorney general as clichés from the Washington circle: Thats exactly how theyve dealt with Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024.
The results of this runoff further strengthened Trumps loyal base of supporters. They were determined to eliminate even the most conservative current members of Congress.
Paxtons victory would be a devastating defeat for Conning, who has held that seat since 2002. For a long time, many Republicans considered him to be the most influential political figure in Texas. He was also seen as a liaison between the powerful Republican financial elite in Texas and Washington.
All candidates across the country have traveled specifically to Texas to seek support from those wealthy local Republican businesspeople. These individuals have long respected and supported Koning. During this election cycle, they invested millions of dollars in his re-election campaign.
The phrase he is the most beloved political figure among the wealthy in Texas isnt even sufficient to describe him, said a Washington Republican election strategist who had close ties with Koenig. Thats why its difficult for people to accept everything thats happening right now. He has always been seen as the door to all the wealthy in the state, and no one else has access to his position.
Some members of the Republican elite believe that if Paxton wins, then Trump should bear the costs associated with competing against Democrats. They argue that the president needs to use those $300 million in campaign funds from MAGA Inc.
Once Trump fully commits to Paxton, the entire Republican ecosystem will expect Trump to bear the additional costs and help Paxton reach the finish line, said a Republican Senate strategist. Everyone expects the president to keep winning, as he knows how to win. But obviously, victory requires resources, and everyone expects him to use those resources.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) downplayed concerns regarding the scenario where Taralico faces Paxton.
Republican National Committee spokesman Zach Kraft said in a statement, Texas is Trumps territory. Republicans will unite and defeat Low T Tarlac and his six genders. Any Republicans who try to suggest otherwise are simply talking nonsense, just trying to find a job working for liberal media.
An assistant to Koenigs campaign team admitted that Trumps endorsement increased the chances of Paxtons victory.
Since Trumps endorsement, the campaign team has posted posts on social media with the hashtag #stillwithcornyn (Still Supporting Cornyn). The assistant said that Cornyn has received significant support from various organizations across the state, including influential agricultural groups. Additionally, Cornyn still outperforms Paxton in terms of television advertising efforts.
Before making the decision, this assistant still believed that all these factors combined togethertwo percentage points here, three percentage points therethats why we believe we still have a chance to win.
He may have reasons for optimism. Koenig has always been highly respected within the Republican Senate caucus, and he ranked second in the 2024 race for the position of Senate Majority Leader.
But Koenigs problem lies in his lack of loyalty towards Trump.
When announcing his support for Paxman, Trump described Conning as a good person, but criticized him for not supporting me during difficult times. It wasnt until after the 2024 New Hampshire primary that Conning officially supported Trumps re-election bid. In that post, Trump specifically mentioned this point.
Earlier this month, Trumps campaign team successfully defeated Senator Bill Cassidy from Louisiana. Cassidy had voted in favor of convicting Trump during the impeachment proceedings related to the Capitol Hill riots on January 6, 2021.
Last week, he also eliminated Congressman Thomas Massie. Massie became a target of the White Houses efforts to eliminate those who defied Trump regarding issues such as the Epstein files, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and military powers.
In some early election cycles, people would also make ideological comparisonswho was more conservative, said a Washington Republican who favored Koning. Trump has changed the rules of the game. Now the question is: who is closest to Trump?
The most recent independent poll before the electionconducted by the University of Houston from late April to early Mayshowed that both parties were evenly matched.
Additionally, with the continued support from many financiers, it seems that quite a number of Republicans are tired of this kind of , and are willing to defy the president.
But other signs indicate that even before Trumps endorsement, Paxton had already begun to widen the gap.
A super PAC that supports Paxton showed a poll conducted in early May, showing him leading by 11 percentage points. Another poll conducted by a pro-democratic gun safety organization showed that Paxton led by 12 percentage points.
Ultimately, those conservative federal senators from the pre-Trump era also fell away. This political stance may no longer be viable after Trumps presidency.
But whats even more critical is the growing degree of division.
The highly influential Paxton has already started focusing his attention on the November elections. Last Thursday, he said that during the final days of the campaign, he would remove all negative advertisements targeting Conning and instead focus on attacking Taralico.
He also invited Conning to do the same, for the benefit of our party.
Koenig refused. On that day, he used strong religious terms: We will continue to expose the truth about Paxton. He has been avoiding accountability for too long. The Day of Judgment is approaching.
If Paxton indeed faces a strong challenge from Democrat Tarrarico, and if the Republican donors wait for Trump to pay them, and if they become disheartened about the midterm elections, then perhaps that could truly be the beginning of the Republicans Day of Judgment?
