Scientists predict that around 14:35 on August 5, Beijing time, a Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage, weighing about 4 tons, will impact near the Bel Crater and Einstein Crater on the Moon, according to its trajectory. It will fall at a speed of about 2.4 kilometers per second, with an impact energy equivalent to about 3 tons of TNT explosive. Since NASA previously stated that images from the lunar orbiter before and after the impact might take several days to return, the actual impact location and the size of the crater remain uncertain.
This debris has the identification number 2025-010D, and it came from a commercial lunar mission launched on January 15, 2025. At that time, the Falcon 9 rocket carried the American Firebee Aerospace Company’s “Blue Ghost 1” and the Japanese ispace Company’s “Tenacity” to the Moon. After completing its mission, the upper stage of the rocket remained in a high orbit across the Earth-Moon space, with all fuel exhausted and the rocket lost control. Over the next year or so, solar activity and the Earth-Moon gravitational forces continuously changed its trajectory, ultimately pushing it towards the Moon.
It does not pose a threat to Earth, nor does it directly impact existing lunar facilities. For scientists, this is even a rare ‘free impact experiment’: NASA plans to use ground-based telescopes, lunar survey orbiters, and the ShadowCam on the South Korean ‘Moon Explorer’ to observe the impact flash, dust plumes, and newly formed craters, in order to study the structure of lunar soil and the mechanisms of high-speed impacts.
But what really deserves vigilance is not just the addition of a new crater on the moon, but the fact that a piece of an uncontrolled rocket debris can drift through the Earth-Moon space for 19 months, until it becomes a focus of public attention as it approaches impact.
As lunar exploration shifts from a "one-time visit" to "long-term presence," the Moon is evolving from an empty scientific research destination into an area with dense infrastructure. The United States is advancing its "Moon Base" program for sustained presence, while China plans to establish a basic international lunar research station by 2035. In the future, more communication, navigation, and relay satellites will appear in lunar orbit, and the Moon may be equipped with landers, energy devices, vehicles, research stations, and residential facilities.
In this case, “finally hitting the Moon” cannot be considered an insignificant outcome anymore. The debris does not necessarily need to directly hit the base to cause damage: the lunar soil fragments and dust produced by the high-speed impact can spread far away. Since the Moon has no atmosphere or wind, the movement of the ejected material is completely different from that on Earth. Relevant models predict that the central dust jet formed by this impact could reach a maximum of 75 to 100 kilometers in height.
Existing international rules are insufficiently prepared for this situation. The Outer Space Treaty only provides a general requirement for countries to avoid causing “harmful pollution” on celestial bodies like the Moon, but it does not establish specific systems for tracking, warning, and mandatory disposal of debris in Earth-Moon space. Discussion documents from the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs have identified increased Earth-Moon interactions and debris risks as new issues, but actual enforceable rules are still being developed.
Of course, not all moon impacts are irresponsible. NASA states that in some cases, controlled impacts with planned locations can be a safe and trackable method of disposal. The issue is that this rocket did not undergo controlled impact: it lost its maneuverability and drifted for a long time, with its final trajectory determined by gravity and solar activities.
This impact could also create the largest man-made crater on the surface of the Moon in history. NASA estimates the new crater to be about 18 meters in size, while another study estimates it to be around 40 meters. The crater left by the Apollo program's upper stage was about 35 to 40 meters in size. The final result can only be determined through confirmation by orbiters.
The Moon was once desolate enough that humans could consider impacts as experiments and the debris as monuments. But when countries actually plan to build roads, generate electricity, mine resources, and live there in the long term, the Moon will no longer be an uninhabited island where waste can be discarded at will.
The base hasn't been built yet, so the rules for waste management must be established first.
