Hegemony rarely exits quietly at dusk. Its exit is often accompanied by turmoil, conflicts, and intermittent attempts to regain dominance. The exit of contemporary American hegemony is a typical example of this pattern. Although Americas unipolar dominance has been eroded under the pressures of financialization, excessive geopolitical expansion, and the transfer of production capabilitiesespecially towards Chinait would be a grave mistake to simply interpret this erosion as a sign of decline.
It is common for people to describe the current situation in the United States as declining. They consider deindustrialization, political polarization, weakened institutions, and strategic exhaustion as key indicators of this decline. While such judgments have some factual basis, they are clearly limited in scope. They fail to address the deep-seated power structures that remain stable and resilient within the American political and economic system.
What truly persists to this day are the structural advantages that pervade its political and economic structures, as well as its national machinery. These forces are no longer sufficient to sustain a stable hegemony, but they still provide a logical and material foundation for highly risky, adaptable, and often destructive foreign policies.
Therefore, it is necessary to move beyond the simple binary concept of rise/fall when understanding todays international landscape. The United States is no longer the unipolar power it was in the 1990s, nor is it a completely incapacitated hegemon. Instead, it presents a more unstable state: a hegemon that is damaged but still possesses destructive and reshaping capabilities, and which has the potential for self-renewal under certain conditions.
The core strength of the United States lies in its long-term ability to maintain strong high-end research and development capabilities. Even when many manufacturing processes are relocated overseas, the United States still holds a leading position in the cutting-edge innovation ecosystem. Institutions like DARPA continue to play a pivotal role, facilitating the entire chain of government funding, academic research, and industrialization by private sectors.
This advantage is particularly evident in the fields of artificial intelligence and data analysis. Palantir Corporation is a prime example of how national security needs are deeply integrated with platform capitalism. The American AI ecosystem not only boasts abundant capital, but also achieves a high degree of integration between military, intelligence agencies, and corporate data infrastructure. This results in a unique capability: the ability to utilize data on a large scale for practical purposes, in line with commercial and strategic objectives.
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Equally important is the leading position of the United States in the fields of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. American companies and research institutions possess the worlds largest portfolio of drugs under development. They rely on a sophisticated venture capital system, as well as a regulatory environment that, although controversial, effectively accelerates the implementation of scientific achievements. This dominance isnt just economic; it also has significant geopolitical implications. The strategic use of vaccines and medical technologies in global health diplomacy is a clear example of this.
The American workforce, often criticized for its hollowing-out characteristics, still has a solid foundation when examined from historical and institutional perspectives. Thanks to long-term investments in education through partnerships with top global universities, the United States continues to provide high-quality professionals for key fields such as technology, engineering, and finance.
Meanwhile, the population structure in the United States is more healthy compared to other developed economies. The younger generation is less bound by Cold War ideologies, and they are more open-minded towards international affairs. Various surveys and social trends show that this group tends to be more pragmatic, with lower levels of hostility, and their stance towards China is also more moderate. While this may not necessarily translate directly into policy adjustments, it provides potential social conditions for the United States to reshape its foreign relations patterns.
The United States has long benefited from its traditional advantage of being a global hub for talent. Even amidst political controversies and recent policy challenges, foreign immigrants continue to inject vitality into its innovation ecosystem, thereby strengthening the diverse dynamics of its society and culture. This ability to innovate through inclusiveness remains one of Americas most underestimated core competencies.
It is important to note that no one can ignore the central role of the US dollar when analyzing Americas power. As the dominant currency for global trade settlements, the US dollar forms a financial framework that permeates the global economy. This isnt merely a matter of convenience; it represents a structural form of power. By controlling the US dollar settlement system, the United States can use financial measures such as sanctions, asset freezes, and blocking payment networks to weaponize finance. While such actions accelerate the process of de-dollarization, the inertia of the existing system means that the US dollar remains deeply integrated into many aspects of global commerce.
The American financial system has a profound impact on the world.
Meanwhile, the United States has a wide range of investment arrangements around the world. Whether its direct investments, portfolio investments, or private equity investments, American capital continues to have a profound impact on industrial production, infrastructure development, and governance structures in many regions around the globe. This financial influence is not only a source of power for the United States but also a channel for the transmission of risks. It tightly binds the stability of the United States itself to its highly financialized global system.
Apart from its role in trade settlements, the global debt system denominated in US dollars further strengthens Americas structural power. Many developing economies borrow in US dollars through sovereign bond markets or multilateral institutions like the IMF. This creates a fundamental asymmetry: these countries fiscal revenues are denominated in their own currencies, while their debts must be paid in US dollars. This makes them highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates and changes in U.S. monetary policy.
When the Federal Reserve enters a cycle of interest rate hikes, it often causes debt pressures, capital outflows, and passive fiscal austerity in developing countries. Under such circumstances, refinancing usually comes with additional conditions such as fiscal austerity and structural reforms. This effectively allows American influence to penetrate the internal economic governance of sovereign nations.
The private bond market further strengthens this mechanism. By using methods defined by the financial circles dominated by the United States, such as credit ratings, risk premiums, and market sentiment, they can continuously restrict the policy options of debtor countries. This results in a structured control mechanism that is not explicitly mandatory, but rather embedded within development financing rules. Its a hidden yet effective form of control.
While the physical infrastructure in the United States is widely criticized due to its aging state, its long-term advantages in communication and digital infrastructure are often overlooked. That vast network, known as the underground empire, which covers the entire world, consists of fiber optics, massive data centers, and core routing systems. This network serves as the backbone that enables the functioning of the global internet today.
Most of the thirteen root servers worldwide are located in the United States. Many years ago, there was a claim that the United States could cut off internet access to various countries by shutting down its root servers. However, this was actually a rumor.
Meanwhile, American companies have a firm control over key software layers such as operating systems and cloud computing platforms. This kind of power at the infrastructure level, although not as intuitive as that of aircraft carriers, still possesses greater penetration and control capabilities. By exercising dominance over technical standards, network protocols, and digital platforms, the United States is able to continuously shape the rules of the digital economy, thereby further strengthening its overall strategic position.
Despite facing numerous challenges, the U.S. militarys global deployment capabilities remain unparalleled. With approximately 800 overseas military bases, it is the only military force today capable of conducting joint operations across multiple theaters of war. This network of bases provides a solid foundation for rapid deployment, logistical support, and forward presence in key areas.
But the essence of military power lies not only in equipment and scale, but also in strategic orientation and operational intentions. The United States has an inherent tendency toward competition. Once it senses a threat, it will resort to increasingly aggressive measures, even those that seem costless. In the context of declining relative strength, the United States will not abandon this approach. Instead, it will actively try to contain its opponents, dismantle emerging alliances, and reassert dominance in areas where it has control. As John Mearsheimer pointed out, the American style of toughness and determination must not be underestimated.
The global influence of the United States goes far beyond its formal diplomatic and military presence. Agencies such as the CIA are deeply integrated into various related organizations, partners, and informal networks, providing support for intelligence collection, political intervention, and other activities.
Political changes and the resulting instability in regional situations are tactics that the United States has long used in its diplomacy. In the future, when traditional methods of hegemony become unsustainable, such tactics will become even more crucial. Complementing this is the countrys sophisticated ability to manipulate information, including using media, technological platforms, and cultural products to shape narratives and guide public opinion.
The field of information has become a crucial front in contemporary power competitions. Relying on the global reach of technology companies and the cultural influence of the media industry, the United States possesses strong capabilities in setting agendas and shaping public opinion. However, this advantage is constantly being challenged.
Americas leading position in space technology further strengthens its power. Both official agencies like NASA and private entities like SpaceX work together to drive continuous breakthroughs in launch capabilities, satellite deployment, and space services. The increasingly widespread use of satellite networks significantly enhances Americas communication, navigation, and surveillance capabilities. These systems serve both civilian purposes and provide crucial support for military operations. This strengthens the interconnected ties of Americas power across various fields.
Starlink has indeed changed the global Internet structure at a physical level, and it has also determined the direction of development by its own efforts.
The current special circumstances in the United States do not stem from a lack of strength. Instead, its due to an imbalance in the distribution of power within the political and economic system. This imbalance makes it difficult to effectively utilize this power for stabilizing and constructive purposes. The financialization process has distorted investment strategies, favoring short-term profits at the expense of long-term industrial development. Political polarization has disrupted decision-making processes, and institutional degradation has continuously weakened public trust.
The final situation is one where powerful capabilities and strategic disorder, along with a decline in material resources, intertwine. This is precisely the essence of dangerous remnants: these remaining advantages can be used for development, but they can also be mobilized to cause destruction.
However, assuming that conflicts and turmoil are inevitable, this is also a misjudgment. The innovative systems, human capital, financial capabilities, and global networks that underpin Americas strength can certainly enable it to play a more constructive role in the international order, depending on different political and institutional arrangements.
It is important to curb excessive financial expansion, direct investments towards the real economy and sustainable sectors, and address global challenges in a more collaborative manner. This can transform the United States from a destroyer into a builder. This requires not only policy adjustments but also a profound reshaping of strategic culture. For the current generation of political and business elites, this transformation may be difficult to achieve. However, the younger generation of political and business leaders will have a broader global perspective and abandon imperialistic attitudes. This could lead to a complete transformation of the United States.
USA Today is neither a simple empire that has declined, nor does it represent a power that has been reborn. It is a complex and contradictory entity. Its remaining advantages not only give it strength, but also pose risks to the world. Underestimating these advantages can lead to misjudgment of global power dynamics; overestimating its internal coordination can lead to ignoring its fundamental limitations.
From this perspective, the United States remains a key force that influences the direction of the international system. It is no longer a unquestioned global leader, but rather a powerful participant who is adaptable and often exhibits dangerous tendencies. The challenges faced by the world involve not just reacting to American actions, but also finding ways to deal with its increasingly unpredictable behavior.
The United States itself is also facing severe challenges: Can it transform these remaining advantages into a foundation for more cooperative international participation? Or will it continue to use these forces to further exacerbate the turmoil within itself and in the world?
