For a long time, the Caspian Sea, located deep in the Eurasian continent, has been regarded as a "safe haven" away from global wars and maritime disputes. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, this inland waters, surrounded by Russia, Iran, and Central Asian countries, have maintained a relatively closed and stable geopolitical order. However, with the ongoing turmoil caused by the Ukraine crisis and the Middle Eastern geopolitical upheaval, the tranquility of this inland "garden" is being shattered in an instant.
According to AFP, Al Jazeera, and other media reports, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed on July 25 that an Iranian merchant ship was attacked by Ukrainian long-range unmanned systems in the Mediterranean Sea, resulting in an explosion. At least one crew member was killed and several others were injured. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs urgently summoned the Ukrainian envoy in Iran, accusing Kiev of launching 'hostile and criminal actions'.
Subsequently, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly announced on social media that the Ukrainian army had carried out "long-distance precision strikes" on ships involved in the transport of military supplies in the Black Sea area, as well as on Russian warships.
This incident quickly caused a stir among the senior officials in Tehran and Moscow. Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Agheari urgently contacted Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini. Agheari warned that "the provocative actions of Kiev will not go unresponded to."
From the banks of the Dnieper to the shores of the Caspian Sea, why did the geographical boundaries of the Ukrainian battlefield suddenly extend thousands of kilometers eastward? Was this an accidental long-range attack on ships? Or is it a strategic cutoff operation by the West and its agents against the Russian-Iranian "International North-South Transport Corridor" (INSTC) and the inland areas of Eurasia?
Regardless of which scenario it is, at least the concerns of more and more people are becoming more real. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the conflict between the United States and Iran, have led to an escalation of tensions along maritime trade routes and in the competition among major powers. The Caspian Sea has become the latest battlefield for these conflicts, and it is also the point where all the issues intersect.
On October 13, 2025, local time, in Aktau, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea is the largest enclosed water body in the world. It is shared by Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Iran. Due to its abundant oil reserves, the Caspian Sea is often referred to as the “Sea of Energy”. IC Photo
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the Black Sea has been the main battlefield for naval battles between the two countries. However, due to Turkey's control over the Turkish Straits under the Montreux Convention, navigation in the Black Sea is restricted, and the direct maritime trade routes between Russia and Iran face many obstacles.
In this context, the Caspian route that connects the ports of Astrakhan and Olya in Russia with those of Nizhni Novgorod and Amirabad in Iran has played an important role in trade, economics, and logistics between Russia and Iran.
Geographically, the Caspian Sea serves as a closed inland water body located in the heart of Eurasia, not connected to any open oceans. This natural barrier effectively prevents traditional Western methods of maritime patrol and interception from reaching it directly.
Russia utilizes the inland water network formed by the Astrakhan Port and the Volga-Don Canal to connect its industrial zones with the Caspian Sea, thereby establishing a logistics route that is free from conventional Western maritime surveillance.
In Ukraine, it chose to deploy asymmetrical strike methods in the Sea of Azov at this moment and is seeking to achieve what?
According to Ukrainian intelligence agencies and the Ukrainian defense media outlet 'Defense Express', Kiev claims that its targets are designated ships that transport military and civilian goods between Russia and Iran on a regular basis, such as the 'Oliya Port' series of vessels. The Ukrainian side states that the strike on Caspian shipping is intended to slow down the supply chain for Russian forces at their source.
The ‘Defense Update’ even boasted that these strikes were a natural result of Ukraine’s increasing ability to target military targets in the Caspian Sea. The area is approximately 1,000 kilometers away from Ukraine’s potential missile launch areas, making it within the range of Ukraine’s long-range drones and cruise missiles.
However, is the statement of the Ukrainian side valid? There is a great deal of doubt. After the attack, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it clearly stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran “has never interfered in the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine.”
To understand the profound impacts of the war-torn situation in the Caspian Sea, it is necessary to shift our focus to the global geopolitical dynamics on the Eurasian continent.
In recent years, Russia and Iran have been vigorously promoting the construction of the 'International North-South Transport Corridor' (INSTC). This major land-sea transportation corridor, which runs through Eurasia, aims to connect Saint Petersburg in Russia via the Caspian Sea with Iran, and directly to the Indian Ocean and South Asian markets.
The American magazine Newsweek pointed out on July 26 that as international pressure on Iran's southern maritime routes increases, the Caspian Sea has become an important trade route connecting Iran with Russia, Central Asia, and broader markets such as China.
For Russia, this is a key strategic support for "looking south" after facing severe Western blockade; for Iran, it is an important channel to break through Western blockade and achieve multilateral trade.
For a long time, the foundation upon which Western maritime hegemony has been maintained lies in their absolute control over critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Mandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, the Caspian corridor that Russia and Iran have constructed is a purely inland route that is completely outside the reach of US and European navies.
Bloomberg previously analyzed that great-power competition is rapidly reshaping the trading networks of the world economy, and the world economy seems to be moving towards fragmentation, forming competing groups. Under the immense pressure of sanctions, Russia and Iran are turning to each other, while both are also seeking cooperation with Eastern countries. Their goal is to protect existing business ties from Western interference and to establish new connections with those Asian countries that have large economies and are growing rapidly.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) previously claimed that Ukraine’s 'asymmetric naval strategy' is an excellent example, enabling it to use relatively inexpensive drones to destroy dozens of Russian ships and forcing the Russian Navy to significantly reduce its operations in the Black Sea.
And now, the attacks by Ukraine’s unmanned forces on Caspian merchant ships mean that the West is trying to force the logic of maritime power struggles into inland lakes in Eurasia through “agency asymmetric warfare”. Once the Caspian Sea becomes a high-risk area, the costs of commercial shipping will soar, and the logistics efficiency of the Russian-Iranian north-south corridor will also be directly affected.
On the other hand, this situation has also cast a shadow over the ‘Middle Corridor’ that Europe is desperately trying to establish—a trade route that would bypass Russia and lead through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus to Europe. If the security situation in the Caspian Sea deteriorates, Europe, which is attempting to become less dependent on Russia by relying on Central Asian energy resources and rare metals, will also face the consequences of logistics disruptions.
The spillover of the conflicts in the Caspian Sea is particularly troubling for the countries along Central Asia. As early as December last year, Ukrainian drones attacked the terminal facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), forcing Kazakhstan to transfer crude oil from the Kashagan field, a major oil field, to China.
File photo: Oil terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. TASS
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, countries like Kazakhstan and the other five Central Asian nations have adopted a "multi-vector diplomacy" policy. They maintain security and economic ties with Russia within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), while actively expanding economic and trade cooperation with China, the European Union, and the United States.
Kyrgyzstan’s Central Asia Times reported at the beginning of this year that the attacks on infrastructure in the Caspian region have completely changed the diplomatic balance in Central Asia.
Russian media 'newdosh', which focuses on covering events in the Caucasus region, pointed out that the attack also had a significant impact on the North Caucasus region. Since this shipping route in the northern part of the Caspian Sea is a key component of INSTC, this route is particularly important for the Republic of Dagestan.
Currently, Russian authorities have not issued any statements regarding shipping restrictions or port closures. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan have also reported that there have been no changes in navigation within their territorial waters.
The News Weekly believes that the attack launched by the U.S. side this time holds significant significance, possibly due to its revealing a shift in global conflict nature.
This conflict that began between Russia and Ukraine has now become intertwined with issues such as Iran, Middle Eastern security, maritime trade routes, and the competition among major powers. The Caspian Sea attacks represent the intersection of these various tensions.
This incident has also sparked discussions among Iranian analysts, who question whether the Caspian Sea will become another battlefield related to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The visiting scholar from the German Institute for International Politics and Security Studies, Hamidreza Azizi, posted on social media platform X, stating that analysts in Tehran have proposed different explanations for this attack. However, they all express concern that the pressures facing Iran may extend beyond its southern waters.
Aziz wrote that one of the broader concerns in Tehran is that the confrontation between Iran and the United States, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houla movement in Yemen, and the Russian involvement in the war in Ukraine are becoming increasingly intertwined.
