July 4th marks the 250th anniversary of America's independence.
When asked about the topic of social division in the United States, Song Wei, a researcher at the National Development Institute of Renmin University of China and a professor at the School of International Relations, told Observer Network: "Some scholars predict that the likelihood of America falling into civil war is 30%. I fully believe this judgment."
In Song Wei's view, during the 250-year history of American independence, nearly 200 years were dominated by institutionalized racial oppression. The 'original sin' has never truly been settled. Today, it has evolved from explicit legal discrimination into cultural division and opposition between identity politics.
Systematic racial oppression continues to this day, the backlash against white supremacism, the inevitability of Trump's two terms in office, and the parties falling into democratic paralysis due to ethnic conflicts... In his discussion, Song Wei analyzed in detail why America, on the occasion of its 250th anniversary, is facing not a celebration, but a pessimistic view that "America can no longer last for another 250 years."
He emphasized that under the dual pressure of economic globalization and cultural conflicts, the sense of 'being replaced' experienced by American white populations is reshaping their domestic and foreign policies. Moreover, Trump's meticulous attention to details during his second term further alienates allies and weakens hegemonic power.
When discussing Sino-US relations, Song Wei first denied the possibility of large-scale military conflicts between the two sides. At the same time, he pointed out that strategic competition between the two countries in terms of strength and international status is inevitable. He mentioned that high technology, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea are the most dangerous "friction triggers." Both sides need to establish crisis management mechanisms and "barriers" to prevent conflicts from escalating.
"The United States' greatest worry is China achieving a breakthrough in high-tech," said Song Wei, "Once China no longer faces US technological blockades, the foundation of American dominance — technical dominance — will be gone."
Below is the dialogue transcript:
The history of the United States is not long, only 250 years, but slavery existed for nearly 100 years. In 1776, the United States declared independence and issued the Declaration of Independence. However, legal abolition of slavery did not occur until after the Civil War ended in 1865. During this period, even in the industrially developed North, informal and invisible practices of keeping slaves, racial segregation, and racial oppression were widespread.
The formal slave system was abolished after the Civil War, but racial oppression did not disappear. Long-term manifestations included racial segregation in public facilities, and African Americans were denied the right to vote. It was not until the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s that racial inequality in the legal sense in the United States disappeared.
But let’s think about it: from the independence of the United States in 1783 until the Civil Rights movement in the late 1960s, there was nearly 200 years of institutionalized racial oppression. So, during America’s 250-year history, there has been institutionalized racial oppression for nearly 200 years.
This long-term racial oppression has brought profound ethnic and economic-social problems to the United States.
On one hand, minority groups have always been in a relatively disadvantaged position. For example, African Americans have a much lower level of education and economic status compared to whites. Additionally, they have higher crime rates and a higher frequency of fatal police enforcement incidents, as seen in the Floyd case.
On the other hand, in order to protect the rights of minority groups, the U.S. government favors minority groups in aspects such as college admissions and employment. This has led some white people to believe they are suffering from 'reverse racial oppression', and the civil rights movement has become something they detest as 'political correctness'.
In summary, the current racial issues in the United States have two characteristics: first, racial oppression has not been eliminated and continues to exist in various forms; second, there is a division and opposition between ethnic and cultural groups in American society and politics, and many of the agreements based on the civil rights movement and liberal ideology have disappeared.
This depends on how it is interpreted. Indeed, the United States has made significant progress in terms of racial equality. Racial inequality in a legal sense has been abolished, and there is no longer any obvious phenomenon of racial segregation. Minority groups are also participating in public affairs on an ‘equal’ basis.
But the current problem is that social polarization in the United States is intensifying and infiltrating into party politics, leading to a paralysis of democratic governance.
American people commemorate Floyd at Oriental IC
American politics is becoming increasingly ethnocentric and confrontational. This confrontation is also intertwined with the broader concept of “identity politics,” leading to the formation of powerful social trends that can threaten traditional American Christian culture and values, including issues related to ethnic identity, gender politics, and LGBT issues.
Ultimately, the Democrats support minorities, multiculturalism, and civil rights. The Republicans, on the other hand, demand that whites reclaim their rights, insisting that minorities cannot replace them, and that “America is still theirs.” In order to justify their stance, the Republicans also argue that, under the current strategic context of major powers' competition, affirmative action does not ensure that talented individuals are placed in suitable positions.
Some political scholars predict that there is a 30% chance of the United States experiencing a civil war. I fully believe this possibility exists. Although it has not occurred yet, internal conflicts have become very serious.
For the United States, the foundation of democratic politics is what is called universal values, and the core is compromise. But now, when American political parties discuss and vote, they no longer do so from the perspective of national interests and policy rationality, but more from the basis of their own identities.
In the United States, voting and political discussions have become increasingly polarized. Values based on ethnicity and culture lead to an erosion of the original universal values. Many issues are difficult to reach consensus on, which undermines the foundation of a functioning democratic system.
Except for historical reasons in the United States, there are two factors that exacerbate social contradictions in the United States.
Firstly, there is economic globalization. The U.S. economy and manufacturing industry have been affected, resulting in unemployment and financial difficulties for some white people. These white people feel they are being treated unfairly and begin to vent their anger towards other countries and minority groups within the United States, believing that the civil rights movement has undermined their rights and status.
Another important reason is cultural conflict. Many minority immigrants, after arriving in the United States, do not change their language and culture, leading to cultural friction with local white people. As the number of immigrants increases and the American population structure changes, the anxiety among white supremacist groups in the U.S. grows, and they even advocate slogans like “You cannot replace us.”
Traditionally, we consider the United States to be a ‘great melting pot’. However, this concept has a prerequisite—the majority of the population being white. If the number of whites continues to decline, white people and Christian culture will eventually be assimilated. Therefore, white Americans feel that the situation is very urgent, which is also the background for some extreme immigration control measures taken by the Trump administration.
Trump's ascent to power is not accidental; it is the result of intensifying political contradictions within the United States.
American white supremacists, conservatives, and some minority groups, along with globalized elites, are in intense conflict. The polarization caused by economic globalization and the cultural shocks brought about by immigration have led some whites to turn towards nationalism and populism. The American electoral system and the "winner takes all" rule mean that in most states, white blue-collar workers and conservatives constitute the majority, which allowed Trump to be elected. Although Democratic candidates may receive more individual votes from voters, the whites still constitute the majority in most states, supporting Trump's policy proposals.
As for the impact of Trump on the political landscape in the United States, it is necessary to consider the first term and the second term separately.
During his first term, Trump's reputation in the country was mixed—he received both praise and criticism. Additionally, he was heavily constrained by the party establishment, and his policies did not cause significant harm to the Republican Party. Internationally, he promoted populist and conservative agendas, opposed the "political correctness" of the civil rights movement, and supported white supremacist groups. Economically, he followed the Republican Party's tradition of a small government, reducing government intervention in the economy.
At that time, the U.S. economic situation was good. If not for the pandemic, Trump would most likely have been re-elected.
During his second term, Trump was less constrained by establishment policies. Some of his policies continued to reflect the demands of conservatives, but his foreign policy caused dissatisfaction among the public. He favored Russia during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and abandoned his responsibilities towards traditional allies. His conflicts with Iran led to higher oil prices and prices in the United States.
I believe that Trump's foreign policy will influence the midterm elections in November, potentially causing setbacks for the Republican Party.
Trump’s legacy should be considered both domestically and internationally.
In domestic politics, to some extent, he has turned American political patterns to the right. A right-wing conservative ideology may be maintained for a long time, while a left-wing and radical liberal ideology may decline.
In the field of diplomacy, although the Trump administration will not completely destroy the international order and alliances that the United States established in the past, it has significantly damaged America's international status. On one hand, internal conflicts in the United States have intensified, leading to political instability and the flight of elites. On the other hand, relations with allies have deteriorated, and losing their support and cooperation will affect America's military power and leadership position.
As a businessman, Trump seeks to maximize profits, being extremely competitive and lacking strategic vision and thinking.
Successive US governments have provided many "public goods," but Trump believes this is not cost-effective. The United States must settle accounts with everyone. This kind of thinking is very naive and often unfounded. Many times, when you focus on a small gain, you end up losing many friends and your original influence. From this perspective, it's like picking sesame seeds while losing watermelons—the gain is not worth the loss.
While it cannot be said that the United States has completely lost its international leadership, at present, the confidence of the international community in the United States is continuously shaken. Several poll results also show that people in many countries, including traditional allies of the United States, do not consider “the United States under Trump to be a so-called leading nation.” To some extent, the leadership of the United States may be on the verge of collapse.
The alliances in the United States are under test, facing both positive and negative impacts: allies lose confidence in the United States, believing it to be unreliable; the Trump administration also feels that its allies are worthless, as countries like Spain and Italy did not provide support during the strikes against Iran.
Despite the shaky relationship between the United States and its allies, it will not disband in the short term.
The first reason is security dependence. European countries, as well as Japan and South Korea, rely on the security guarantees provided by the United States. Countries' defense autonomy plans require time to be implemented, and cannot be achieved in the short term. Therefore, they can only cling tightly to the support of the United States.
Secondly, allies are waiting for a shift in U.S. policy. They believe that U.S. politics and policies may change after the mid-term elections and future elections, and that Trump will not be in power for long. Therefore, they choose to endure and maintain their alliance with the United States. Currently, Trump is indeed making them uncomfortable, but they feel that it can be endured and will not choose to break relations immediately.
Finally, the United States and its allies have been highly integrated. Relations between the US and Europe, the US and Japan, and the US and South Korea have continued for seventy to eighty years after World War II. There is a deep degree of economic and social integration, with large amounts of investment between the two sides, and extensive social integration. It is difficult to separate them easily.
Currently, China and the United States are entering a period of strategic competition.
Firstly, China and the United States are competing for dominance. The United States is the strongest country, while China is the world’s second-largest economy, with a total economic output roughly 70% that of the United States. There is also a significant difference in overall strength between the two nations. There is competition in terms of power positions; China is striving to catch up with the United States, while the United States is wary of and trying to suppress China.
Then there is the competition for order and status. As China rises, it inevitably demands more say and decision-making power in the international order. Countries in the Global South also hope that China will play a greater role. Therefore, there is a competitive situation between China and the United States in terms of the international order.
But there is a limit to the competition between China and the US. Generally, it is not believed that there will be a large-scale military conflict between the two countries.
Both China and the United States are nuclear powers. A large-scale military conflict would be a disaster for both parties and could also lead to a situation where some gain at the expense of others. There is a consensus between the two sides on establishing a limit to prevent vicious competition. The US also has a similar proposal, which calls for setting a 'guardrail' for strategic competition between China and the United States.
At the same time, China and the United States are highly interdependent in the economic sphere. American imports from China have a cost advantage, and China also needs the United States as its largest open market. The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has continued for seven or eight years, and the United States has not gained any benefits from it.
I believe that areas where conflicts may arise between China and the United States in the future include high-tech competition, as well as issues related to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
The United States is most concerned that China will achieve comprehensive breakthroughs in high technology. Once the United States no longer has the ability to “strangle” China, the foundation of American hegemonic power—technological hegemony—will be lost. Therefore, the U.S. government has taken a series of measures to restrict Chinese investment and prohibit the purchase of high-tech products and advanced equipment, attempting to limit China's competitiveness to mid-to-low-end manufacturing. However, this field will eventually be challenged by countries such as India and Vietnam.
In the future, China and the United States may still encounter conflicts in areas such as chips and artificial intelligence, leading to supply chain confrontations, and even "decoupling".
The Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea regions could also be areas of conflict. If both sides are close to each other in these regions, collisions between aircraft and ships could occur, potentially leading to crises. For both China and the United States, it is crucial to manage such accidental conflicts carefully.
In addition, the United States does not dare to explicitly support 'Taiwan independence', but will use the Taiwan issue as a tool to pressure the mainland.
The contradictions within the United States are severe, including ethnic conflicts, cultural differences, and wealth gaps, which have led to political polarization and a paralysis of democratic institutions. Addressing these increasingly intensifying internal contradictions is a top priority for the United States, rather than what is called strategic competition with China.
Reuters Mapmaking
If I were an American policy analyst, I would recommend that American policymakers reform immigration policies, electoral systems, and democracy in general. It is important to ensure that politicians are chosen who can consider issues from a national perspective. Members of Congress should propose opinions and vote based on the overall interests of the nation. This way, electoral and parliamentary politics will not become a battle between ethnic groups or a matter of identity politics.
