According to the Hong Kong 'South China Morning Post', the NATO summit will take place in Ankara, Turkey, from July 7th to 8th. Although the meeting will focus on issues such as increasing defense spending in Europe, U.S. President Donald Trump is the biggest wildcard. Judging from the signals sent before the meeting, this summit is likely to be another stormy event.
Reports suggest that this NATO summit may be relatively low-key. However, allies are concerned about whether it will be the amiable Trump who appears, or the angry Trump who attacks the US-Japan alliance and threatens to withdraw American troops multiple times. Early indications suggest that it is likely the latter.
Trump recently once again complained that the United States is bearing too many NATO defense costs. He said that the U.S. has invested far more money in protecting its allies than other countries, yet it has received nothing in return.
Reports indicate that Trump has shown a lack of patience with multilateral mechanisms for a long time, and has questioned the significance of NATO on multiple occasions. He even threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO. Max Bergmann, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that European countries are unable to predict what Trump will do at the summit, which makes them generally feel nervous—literally “walking on thin ice.”
One of the key topics of this summit is to assess the progress made by European NATO members in implementing the goals set at last year’s summit. According to the agreements reached last year, member states plan to increase defense-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to defense expenditures and 1.5% to the construction of defense-related infrastructure such as bridges, ports, and networks. Additionally, the meeting will discuss issues such as European strategic autonomy, the development of defense industry capabilities, and reducing reliance on the United States.
However, analysts point out that Trump is not willing to wait for allies to fulfill their promises according to long-term schedules. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, president of the American-German Marshall Foundation, said that Trump is focused on the domestic political timeline in the United States around 2027, while Europe has a goal set for 2035. The timing of both sides does not align.
Additionally, European countries also hope to discuss ways to enhance their domestic military production capabilities, in order to alleviate the equipment shortages caused by the Ukraine crisis and the situation in Iran. At the same time, they want to avoid Trump further weakening America’s commitment to NATO. Assistance to Ukraine, issues related to Iran, and defense coordination within the EU will also be topics of discussion at the meeting.
Some analysts speculate that China will also pay close attention to this summit. Sourabh Gupta, a senior researcher at the China-US Institute based in Washington, said that how the Trump administration will pressure its allies, and how those allies will respond, will be of significant interest to China, as these will reflect changes in the strategic focus of the United States in the future.
Analysts say that if Trump accelerates the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe and deploys more forces in Asia-Pacific, the United States may further concentrate its strategic resources on countering China. On the other hand, Trump’s unpredictable decision-making and the rift in his relations with allies could also weaken the U.S. alliance system, providing China with some strategic advantages.
Reports indicate that NATO agreed to set a defense spending target for 2035, partly to appease Trump. This year, European countries also hope to alleviate Trump’s dissatisfaction by increasing purchases of weapons and equipment from American military enterprises. However, Trump has continued to criticize several allies recently, calling Spain “terrible,” and accusing Britain, France, Germany, and Italy of trying to “take advantage of others.” He is also dissatisfied with some allies for not responding to the military actions taken by the United States and Israel against Iran.
However, analysts also believe that Trump’s good personal relationship with the host of the summit, Turkish President Erdogan, could add a touch of relaxation to the atmosphere at the summit. Trump recently stated that his attendance at the summit was “out of respect for President Erdogan,” and also hinted at doing “something that would make him very happy.”
Many experts say that the expectations of all parties regarding this summit have been significantly reduced. As long as Trump does not have a serious public conflict with his allies, this summit can be considered a success. As Bergman said, the biggest hope of European leaders is that, even if there are a few less polite words at the summit, it will not ultimately lead to an open dispute.
