American retailers are purchasing goods from China ahead of schedule, preparing for the “Black Friday” and Christmas shopping season at the end of the year, in order to avoid potential increases in tariffs. Shipping companies say that many American companies have advanced their orders by 4 to 6 weeks, originally scheduled to be completed between July and September, leading to an increase in freight traffic on Sino-American routes in recent times.
According to Reuters report on June 30th, there are signs of a easing in Sino-US relations, but uncertainties in trade policies are still driving U.S. companies to accelerate their procurement activities.
In February this year, the 10% tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration were set to expire on July 24. Prior to that, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that some of these tariff measures were illegal. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office also threatened to impose an additional 12.5% tariff on certain countries, under the pretext of “forced labor”.
"Everyone expects customs duties may rise again, or return to their previous levels. Therefore, everyone is scrambling for time and hopes to ship goods into the United States before the new policies are implemented." said Tony Meng, Senior Sales Manager of XPD Global, a logistics company based in China.
Normally, American retailers would stock up from July to September, but orders for May and June this year have been released earlier. Data shows that U.S. imports of Chinese goods increased by 35% in May compared to the same period last year, up from 11% in April, ending a downward trend seen in March.
In 2025, China’s trade surplus is expected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion. In May, Chinese exports to the US included smartphones, lithium-ion batteries, solid-state drives, toys, kitchenware, and holiday items.
Shipping companies say that early bookings have led to a shortage of space on Chinese-American routes. Shipping giant Maersk stated that since mid-May, there has been a reduction in container space on Chinese-American routes. The main reasons for this are increased customer demand and early booking for seasonal needs.
Meanwhile, maritime freight prices have risen. According to data from shipping consulting firm DeLorme, as of June 25, the freight rate for 40-foot containers from Shanghai to New York reached $7,149, a 6% increase compared to a week earlier, and a 25% increase year-over-year. The freight rate for the route from Shanghai to Los Angeles reached $5,750, a 54% increase year-over-year.
However, Kyle Henderson, CEO of container tracking company Vizion, said that the increase in freight rates is more a reflection of shipping companies adjusting their capacity, rather than a significant surge in US demand. He predicts that as goods purchased in advance begin to arrive in the US, coupled with the higher costs of tariffs that drive up Chinese commodity prices, US imports may gradually slow down after July.
